Ruble collapses to 100-1. Russia central bank raises interest rates 3.5% to over 12%. Let the money printing and 90s Soviet collapse hyperinflation begin.
An interesting article that I read regarding the pivotal point Ukraine and the west is at with regards to support for this offensive.
Bottom line is that everybody needs to get onto the same page and have clearly outlined set of goals and objectives. Military needs to ensure they are truly ready and capable of piercing defensive positions if they go all in, Political leadership in Zelensky needs to understand that this will be grueling and his posture of returning to 91 borders will be difficult and expensive in blood.
American and NATO partners need to quit the BS and figure out if they actually want Ukraine to win and if so, arm they properly or just change directions. A very key point that really stood out to me was if Ukraine's military leadership were NATO general's, they would have said HELL NO to this offensive based on lack of air power and other weaponry.
The longer this drags out to this level, the longer Russia ends up winning by sheer destruction of Ukraine. My thinking has changed in that everything the west has done in terms of sanctions, seizures, arrest warrants for Putin and more really hasn't had any material impact on Russian war efforts.
Too many things were suppose to have happened by now that were devastating for Russia that havent materialized to the degree we all want.
Both of these thoughts are false, especially the latter one.
Even though we don't know the full truth, we do know with a really high certainty that the sanctions have had a really significant effect on Russian economy, and by extension their war efforts.
There have been extremely significant and very obvious things going on, like Russia constantly dipping deeper and deeper into Soviet stockpiles instead of replenishing their modern equipment, Russian missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine being severely hampered by their difficulties to independently produce those things, and very likely they've been holding back on drafting more men simply because the numbers they have at the front are pretty much the numbers they can handle.
When they did the latest draft rounds, they had significant trouble finding even basic kits for their troops. They've been short on trucks and modern APC's, they have a severe lack of night vision equipment... If they had had all their previous oil and gas money and their normal ability to go shopping with them, none of that stuff would have been an issue.
I get that it's kind of hard to think about the what-if counter-factual situation where the sanctions never happened, but when you do, it's pretty obvious that the sanctions have had a very direct and likely significant impact.
It's also worth pointing out that for all we know right now, the Russian defensive front or their economy might very well completely collapse in something like six months, resulting in a total Ukrainian victory, even if the support to Ukraine doesn't evolve from where it's at. Or it might not, but we don't know.
As for whether the fight is worth it, Ukrainians overwhelmingly agree with Zelenskiy that they believe they can win this thing and that the fight is worth it, and because it's their country, it's their call. They know the amount of destruction they're suffering better than anyone else, they can think for themselves, and they've been very consistently making the same call over and over. They want to keep at it, and we should keep supporting them because it's their country and this is pretty much as righteous a cause as wars get.
Last edited by Itse; 08-18-2023 at 11:37 AM.
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Both of these thoughts are false, especially the latter one.
Even though we don't know the full truth, we do know with a really high certainty that the sanctions have had a really significant effect on Russian economy, and by extension their war efforts.
There have been extremely significant and very obvious things going on, like Russia constantly dipping deeper and deeper into Soviet stockpiles instead of replenishing their modern equipment, Russian missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine being severely hampered by their difficulties to independently produce those things, and very likely they've been holding back on drafting more men simply because the numbers they have at the front are pretty much the numbers they can handle.
When they did the latest draft rounds, they had significant trouble finding even basic kits for their troops. They've been short on trucks and modern APC's, they have a severe lack of night vision equipment... If they had had all their previous oil and gas money and their normal ability to go shopping with them, none of that stuff would have been an issue.
I get that it's kind of hard to think about the what-if counter-factual situation where the sanctions never happened, but when you do, it's pretty obvious that the sanctions have had a very direct and likely significant impact.
It's also worth pointing out that for all we know right now, the Russian defensive front or their economy might very well completely collapse in something like six months, resulting in a total Ukrainian victory, even if the support to Ukraine doesn't evolve from where it's at. Or it might not, but we don't know.
As for whether the fight is worth it, Ukrainians overwhelmingly agree with Zelenskiy that they believe they can win this thing and that the fight is worth it, and because it's their country, it's their call. They know the amount of destruction they're suffering better than anyone else, they can think for themselves, and they've been very consistently making the same call over and over. They want to keep at it, and we should keep supporting them because it's their country and this is pretty much as righteous a cause as wars get.
Yes the best analogy to this war is Germany in WW2, the longer the war went on the weaker Germany got, it utterly sucks for Ukraine but the West has won the war already, Russia is broke and all but toothless at this point, all we are really doing now is working out whether Russia collapses and Ukraine gets everything back or whether it ends up in a long running stalemate, a stalemate is actually worse for Russia though really, we get to grind the Russian economy and military into nothing at no real cost to the west, as a proxy war it is easily the easiest win the West has ever had
Yes the best analogy to this war is Germany in WW2, the longer the war went on the weaker Germany got, it utterly sucks for Ukraine but the West has won the war already, Russia is broke and all but toothless at this point, all we are really doing now is working out whether Russia collapses and Ukraine gets everything back or whether it ends up in a long running stalemate, a stalemate is actually worse for Russia though really, we get to grind the Russian economy and military into nothing at no real cost to the west, as a proxy war it is easily the easiest win the West has ever had
I'll be honest, if they end up in a costly stalemate it's not even the west that's a problem. It's their "allies" in China salivating at all that delicious land in the east.
I'll be honest, if they end up in a costly stalemate it's not even the west that's a problem. It's their "allies" in China salivating at all that delicious land in the east.
China already pretty much controls that area economically. There's also rumored to be millions of Chinese workers already in the East of Russia.
The vultures are definitely circling. The biggest worry is ensuring that thousands of nuclear devices get accounted for in all the chaos.
Both of these thoughts are false, especially the latter one.
Even though we don't know the full truth, we do know with a really high certainty that the sanctions have had a really significant effect on Russian economy, and by extension their war efforts.
There have been extremely significant and very obvious things going on, like Russia constantly dipping deeper and deeper into Soviet stockpiles instead of replenishing their modern equipment, Russian missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine being severely hampered by their difficulties to independently produce those things, and very likely they've been holding back on drafting more men simply because the numbers they have at the front are pretty much the numbers they can handle.
When they did the latest draft rounds, they had significant trouble finding even basic kits for their troops. They've been short on trucks and modern APC's, they have a severe lack of night vision equipment... If they had had all their previous oil and gas money and their normal ability to go shopping with them, none of that stuff would have been an issue.
I get that it's kind of hard to think about the what-if counter-factual situation where the sanctions never happened, but when you do, it's pretty obvious that the sanctions have had a very direct and likely significant impact.
It's also worth pointing out that for all we know right now, the Russian defensive front or their economy might very well completely collapse in something like six months, resulting in a total Ukrainian victory, even if the support to Ukraine doesn't evolve from where it's at. Or it might not, but we don't know.
As for whether the fight is worth it, Ukrainians overwhelmingly agree with Zelenskiy that they believe they can win this thing and that the fight is worth it, and because it's their country, it's their call. They know the amount of destruction they're suffering better than anyone else, they can think for themselves, and they've been very consistently making the same call over and over. They want to keep at it, and we should keep supporting them because it's their country and this is pretty much as righteous a cause as wars get.
Although I do agree a lot with your line of thinking in a lot of ways, I think we need to start readjusting expectations in the not to distant future.
Normal people like us are not in the know as much as people in power of course but there are limitations.
The US President and NATO have indicated they are willing to support Ukraine as long as it takes, but privately we know that really isn't the case. They haven't provided Ukraine with enough of equipment and the equipment they have provided, not in sufficient quantities. Is there a strong enough will for western support for years to come? Doubtful.
Politically in countries like Canada when we were at war in the middle east and we suffered hundreds and thousands of killed and wounded, it was a massive political problem for multiple US Presidents and Canadian Prime Ministers. In Putin's Russia, he's pretty stable for the most part. People were convinced that the sanctions on the Russian elite and powerful would force Putin to backtrack, I was one of them and I can safely say I was wrong.
I really do hope the Russian military collapses and Ukraine is able to get 100% of it's land back and that includes Crimea. This is starting to look a lot less likely to me. There was a mountain of delays and dithering on behalf of the west for a whole host of things, trying to straddle the line between support and outright battling Russia indirectly.
I am starting to think that the more likely scenario in next 6-12 months would be wait and see approach, hope for the best and than a subtle tap on Zelensky's shoulder telling him great job but it's over.
Unless the US and NATO provides Ukraine with a mass amount of weapons and aircraft that they need in order to drive every Russian and Russian soldier out, then I think it may be considered a loss. When Zelensky says that's the goal, that's the goal and the end point. Losing huge swath's of land, citizens, economic ruin and population flee and more can't be spun as a moral victory.
We will see what happens in the near future. Without the equipment and training that Ukraine has said it needs. Ukraine asked for 1000 tanks from the US and they got 300 globally.
Winston Churchill said in 1941 something along the lines of "Give us the tools and we will finish the job" I just hope that's what's going to happen in the end.
China already pretty much controls that area economically. There's also rumored to be millions of Chinese workers already in the East of Russia.
The vultures are definitely circling. The biggest worry is ensuring that thousands of nuclear devices get accounted for in all the chaos.
There was a story on BBC years ago talking about Chinese settlements in Eastern Russia. Some of the smaller villages that were dying or completely deserted, were being populated with migrants from China. Many of them weren't officially immigrants, but just people who crossed the border and decided to move in. Putin said they were welcome to stay, but there were issues because the communities were economically tied to China despite being on Russian land. One of the more obscure reasons for invading Ukraine thrown out by some people was that Putin wanted to relocate Ukrainians to Eastern Russia to restart some of the farms and industry there to prevent further Chinese settlement, and then replace the Ukrainian population in Ukraine with Russians. It wouldn't be the first time Russia applied strategies like that to engineer demographics in Eastern Russia, but it doesn't seem like something that reconciles with modern sensibilities.
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Although I do agree a lot with your line of thinking in a lot of ways, I think we need to start readjusting expectations in the not to distant future.
Normal people like us are not in the know as much as people in power of course but there are limitations.
The US President and NATO have indicated they are willing to support Ukraine as long as it takes, but privately we know that really isn't the case. They haven't provided Ukraine with enough of equipment and the equipment they have provided, not in sufficient quantities. Is there a strong enough will for western support for years to come? Doubtful.
Politically in countries like Canada when we were at war in the middle east and we suffered hundreds and thousands of killed and wounded, it was a massive political problem for multiple US Presidents and Canadian Prime Ministers. In Putin's Russia, he's pretty stable for the most part. People were convinced that the sanctions on the Russian elite and powerful would force Putin to backtrack, I was one of them and I can safely say I was wrong.
I really do hope the Russian military collapses and Ukraine is able to get 100% of it's land back and that includes Crimea. This is starting to look a lot less likely to me. There was a mountain of delays and dithering on behalf of the west for a whole host of things, trying to straddle the line between support and outright battling Russia indirectly.
I am starting to think that the more likely scenario in next 6-12 months would be wait and see approach, hope for the best and than a subtle tap on Zelensky's shoulder telling him great job but it's over.
Unless the US and NATO provides Ukraine with a mass amount of weapons and aircraft that they need in order to drive every Russian and Russian soldier out, then I think it may be considered a loss. When Zelensky says that's the goal, that's the goal and the end point. Losing huge swath's of land, citizens, economic ruin and population flee and more can't be spun as a moral victory.
We will see what happens in the near future. Without the equipment and training that Ukraine has said it needs. Ukraine asked for 1000 tanks from the US and they got 300 globally.
Winston Churchill said in 1941 something along the lines of "Give us the tools and we will finish the job" I just hope that's what's going to happen in the end.
I agree that the war is far from won. While I'm generally not as pessimistic about western will to support Ukraine, the stability of the US political system is questionable, and if the US collapses into political chaos or if the fascists come back to power, things could get ugly really fast.
There's also risk of escalation. As the war has moved into a mostly attritional phase, both sides are now trying to change the conditions around the war as much they're trying to move battle lines. Fights about trade and support could heat up and create new conflicts. A lot can happen. Right now the long term picture looks better for Ukraine, but that can change, and there might be problems at the front we don't hear about.
But yeah, I also agree that the West military-industrial complex should be really put into a high hear and Ukraine should be supported more now, with better system and just more of them.
If the West truly committed to this properly for like a year, their combined economic and industrial might would just completely overshadow whatever resources Russia could come up with, and this war woule be more winnable in the battlefield.
Juat as a propaganda move, the West should posture much harder about their will to support Ukraine. Make things look impossible for Russia. If Russia believed that western support will hold, they would be much more likely to give up and go home.
I agree that the war is far from won. While I'm generally not as pessimistic about western will to support Ukraine, the stability of the US political system is questionable, and if the US collapses into political chaos or if the fascists come back to power, things could get ugly really fast.
There's also risk of escalation. As the war has moved into a mostly attritional phase, both sides are now trying to change the conditions around the war as much they're trying to move battle lines. Fights about trade and support could heat up and create new conflicts. A lot can happen. Right now the long term picture looks better for Ukraine, but that can change, and there might be problems at the front we don't hear about.
But yeah, I also agree that the West military-industrial complex should be really put into a high hear and Ukraine should be supported more now, with better system and just more of them.
If the West truly committed to this properly for like a year, their combined economic and industrial might would just completely overshadow whatever resources Russia could come up with, and this war woule be more winnable in the battlefield.
Juat as a propaganda move, the West should posture much harder about their will to support Ukraine. Make things look impossible for Russia. If Russia believed that western support will hold, they would be much more likely to give up and go home.
I think Russia has already lost, but not sure Ukraine could win, either.
Russia lost because the NATO alliance is even stronger and militaries are increasing their budgets. In a country with severe demographics challenges already they've nuked their their skilled young people demographics even more. The future is sealed now.
Having said that, Ukrainian victory is difficult to see without a Russian political collapse. Russian defences are competently constructed and motivation for defending is simply "not dying" which is still a motivation for conscripts who don't want to be there
I think Russia has already lost, but not sure Ukraine could win, either.
Russia lost because the NATO alliance is even stronger and militaries are increasing their budgets. In a country with severe demographics challenges already they've nuked their their skilled young people demographics even more. The future is sealed now.
Having said that, Ukrainian victory is difficult to see without a Russian political collapse. Russian defences are competently constructed and motivation for defending is simply "not dying" which is still a motivation for conscripts who don't want to be there
That's really pretty much where I'm at too. Russia is probably not going to fall militarily unless their economy or political system breaks first. Or some combination of the two.
I just think that there's a very realistic chance that that actually happens, and that the military pressure Ukraine is putting on Russia is probably necessary for that to happen.
The combination of harsh sanctions and a large land war with it's enormous costs is key. One or the other is unlikely to break Russia by itself.
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I'm no military nerd, but isn't it extremely funny that Ukraine is able to operate drones more than 150km inside Russia's borders?
If Canada were in a war with the US, would we even be able to get a single drone within a mile of the Coutts border crossing?
Russia's drone technology is abysmal for a modern military. Russia is relying on places like Iran to supply them with drone technology, and that technology is decades behind what the West is supplying Ukraine.
I'm no military nerd, but isn't it extremely funny that Ukraine is able to operate drones more than 150km inside Russia's borders?
If Canada were in a war with the US, would we even be able to get a single drone within a mile of the Coutts border crossing?
If the Russian description of this recent drone attack is to be believed, it sounds like it may have actually been a commercially available drone that has a short range. That would mean that it could have been being operated from within Russian territory. I suppose it wouldn't be too surprising if there are Ukrainian teams working from within Russia.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
That's really pretty much where I'm at too. Russia is probably not going to fall militarily unless their economy or political system breaks first. Or some combination of the two.
I just think that there's a very realistic chance that that actually happens, and that the military pressure Ukraine is putting on Russia is probably necessary for that to happen.
The combination of harsh sanctions and a large land war with it's enormous costs is key. One or the other is unlikely to break Russia by itself.
Another issue for Russia is that they have more than one pressure point. Russia also runs the risk of losing control in Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, Syria etc...
Russia drone technology is abysmal for a modern military. Russia is relying on places like Iran to supply them with drone technology, and that technology is decades behind what the West is supplying Ukraine.
fixed #### em
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