Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Yup, which is also on clear display with the "just transition" resistance. She's directly hurting Albertans because of ideology. As an Albertan who would be interested in transitioning from my O&G career, it's a real kick in the pickle. But UCP supporters don't really care about anyone else, so this stuff is all a big win for their brains.

Good to have you back Fuzz!

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

He screwed Alberta and Enbridge on Gateway for sure, but I don’t think he’s had an impact on another pipeline project at all. I’ve got no love lost for him, I think he’s an empty shell but if we are cancelling renewable projects because we are mad at him, that’s some pretty piss poor policy making.

Uhhhh no. Not a chance. Absolutely the Trudeau government has had an enormous impact on pipeline projects.

See any new ones being built / conceived of- that cross a provincial border- in the last 10 years?

You cannot build a pipeline across a border anymore. Alberta's production is effectively de facto capped. You tell me one new project conceived of in the last 10 years that crosses a border. Even North River's project in NEBC is unlikely to go ahead, which gives Pembina a monopoly on liquids transport in NEBC. Yay! We love our monopolies in this country. Oh and- yes- that impacts the price of the product you and I are buying.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

He screwed Alberta and Enbridge on Gateway for sure, but I don’t think he’s had an impact on another pipeline project at all. I’ve got no love lost for him, I think he’s an empty shell but if we are cancelling renewable projects because we are mad at him, that’s some pretty piss poor policy making.

Energy East as well. Refused to make Quebec follow jurisdiction, and then put in a bunch of wording around needing to account for Scope 3 emissions, regardless of whether those rules were going to be enforced.

Now instead of our major players being the big dogs and acquiring major companies like TC and Enbridge buying Columbia and other US assets, we're in a spot where TC Energy is spinning off their oil business because everything they tried and spent a ton of money on never came to fruition.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

He screwed Alberta and Enbridge on Gateway for sure,

Did he, though?

He certainly took credit for killing it to try and win points on his left flank in BC, but Northern Gateway was dead in the water by that time. The 200+ conditions that were slapped on the project before Trudeau and the Liberals took government is what ‘screwed’ the project.

[timun]

You do all realize that your talk about "Trudeau killed pipelines" is a strawman argument and whataboutery, right? It's a completely meritless deflection.

[TheIronMaiden]

Seems to me more and more that following politics is a pedantic form of self harm.

[timun]

Spoiler!

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by timun

Spoiler!

*O@G industry

[Major Major]

The modern Alberta conservative loves:

-Big government
-apologies
-attacking our own energy industry

The list keeps growing. Bizarre

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Uhhhh no. Not a chance. Absolutely the Trudeau government has had an enormous impact on pipeline projects.

See any new ones being built / conceived of- that cross a provincial border- in the last 10 years?

You cannot build a pipeline across a border anymore. Alberta's production is effectively de facto capped. You tell me one new project conceived of in the last 10 years that crosses a border. Even North River's project in NEBC is unlikely to go ahead, which gives Pembina a monopoly on liquids transport in NEBC. Yay! We love our monopolies in this country. Oh and- yes- that impacts the price of the product you and I are buying.

How many pipelines is Pouty Pierre going to ram down our throats with his majority government?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

How many pipelines is Pouty Pierre going to ram down our throats with his majority government?

Not sure. He may loosen the restrictions and obligations placed on these types of projects a bit though. Getting a pipe approved may not come with 3,000 conditions that escalate the cost of building one to akin to building a nuclear power plant.

[Frequitude]

I'll start with saying that I am a massive proponent and advocate for energy transition. It is my passion and part of my work. I voted NDP this last election. So with that out of the way...

The renewables (wind and solar) issue is valid. They are creating grid instability and pricing volatility, and ironically are a fundamental risk to being able to deliver on an affordable net-zero grid in the future.

Here's a rough breakdown of my reasoning:

1) Grid reliability is paramount (lights can't go out). Unfortunately we can go through long multi-week periods of relatively dark and windless times in the winter when cold fronts set in. We do not have the geology for large scale hydro to manage this as most of our hydro ability is run-of-river which can manage hours/days, not a week+. We also don't have the tie-lines to BC and Manitoba to do so, and their hydro will be needed for their own electrification. Batteries would be a drop in the bucket for this supply gap. So this means we need to maintain a near duplicate backup fleet of thermal generation. Problem: Higher electricity rates or higher taxes as excessive infrastructure needs to be paid for by someone.

2) These types of thermal peaker plants do not pair well with CCUS. CCUS is better suited for non-dispatchable baseload generation like combined cycle plants. So for these peaker plants to be net-zero, you're probably left with hydrogen fired. Problem: Higher electricity rates or higher taxes as further additional hydrogen facilities and distribution infrastructure needs to be paid for by someone.

3) These issues will only be further exacerbated by electrification of our economy via in-home heating shifting from gas to electric, and electric vehicles. When are people going to turn on the heat and plug their cars in in the winter??? ...after they get home from work...when its dark.

That's the issue with the Clean Electricity Regulation's 2035 timeline for Alberta. It is basically forcing us to a renewables and backup "clean thermal" (CCGT+CCUS or H2 fired peakers) grid because it is the only available technology that can meet that timeline, instead of having more time for a better long term solution like small modular nuclear reactors which are more of a 2050 timeline. In short, a massive amount of money funded by either taxpayers or electricity consumers getting poured into a massive amount of suboptimal infrastructure.

Wind and solar are not the solution. They just get in the way of a reliable, affordable, net-zero grid of the future.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Not sure. He may loosen the restrictions and obligations placed on these types of projects a bit though. Getting a pipe approved may not come with 3,000 conditions that escalate the cost of building one to akin to building a nuclear power plant.

So he is going to goto war against the Indigenous people?

I mean I was kinda hoping Harper did that when he had his majority gov't but he did jack squat.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Major Major

The modern Alberta conservative loves:

-Big government
-apologies
-attacking our own energy industry

The list keeps growing. Bizarre

UCP supporters have proven time and time again to be absolute morons that either have zero understanding of provincial politics beyond "NDP SOCIALISTS running things!? NO WAY!!!!!" or even worse, people that understand the damage and don't care because it doesn't directly affect them.

It's a sad time in the province.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by jayswin

UCP supporters have proven time and time again to be absolute morons that either have zero understanding of provincial politics beyond "NDP SOCIALISTS running things!? NO WAY!!!!!" or even worse, people that understand the damage and don't care because it doesn't directly affect them.

It's a sad time in the province.

The good news is you only have to wait 4 years to vote on it again.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Yoho

The good news is you only have to wait 4 years to vote on it again.

the bad news for you is that you will probably never see a Federal conservative gov't ever again.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I'll start with saying that I am a massive proponent and advocate for energy transition. It is my passion and part of my work. I voted NDP this last election. So with that out of the way...

The renewables (wind and solar) issue is valid. They are creating grid instability and pricing volatility, and ironically are a fundamental risk to being able to deliver on an affordable net-zero grid in the future.

Here's a rough breakdown of my reasoning:

1) Grid reliability is paramount (lights can't go out). Unfortunately we can go through long multi-week periods of relatively dark and windless times in the winter when cold fronts set in. We do not have the geology for large scale hydro to manage this as most of our hydro ability is run-of-river which can manage hours/days, not a week+. We also don't have the tie-lines to BC and Manitoba to do so, and their hydro will be needed for their own electrification. Batteries would be a drop in the bucket for this supply gap. So this means we need to maintain a near duplicate backup fleet of thermal generation. Problem: Higher electricity rates or higher taxes as excessive infrastructure needs to be paid for by someone.

2) These types of thermal peaker plants do not pair well with CCUS. CCUS is better suited for non-dispatchable baseload generation like combined cycle plants. So for these peaker plants to be net-zero, you're probably left with hydrogen fired. Problem: Higher electricity rates or higher taxes as further additional hydrogen facilities and distribution infrastructure needs to be paid for by someone.

3) These issues will only be further exacerbated by electrification of our economy via in-home heating shifting from gas to electric, and electric vehicles. When are people going to turn on the heat and plug their cars in in the winter??? ...after they get home from work...when its dark.

That's the issue with the Clean Electricity Regulation's 2035 timeline for Alberta. It is basically forcing us to a renewables and backup "clean thermal" (CCGT+CCUS or H2 fired peakers) grid because it is the only available technology that can meet that timeline, instead of having more time for a better long term solution like small modular nuclear reactors which are more of a 2050 timeline. In short, a massive amount of money funded by either taxpayers or electricity consumers getting poured into a massive amount of suboptimal infrastructure.

Wind and solar are not the solution. They just get in the way of a reliable, affordable, net-zero grid of the future.

Do these factors support a moratorium or simply the notion that we won't be off gas by 2035? No need to attack our own industry to get this point across. It makes zero sense.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

So he is going to goto war against the Indigenous people?

I mean I was kinda hoping Harper did that when he had his majority gov't but he did jack squat.

Well there is quite a (very large) difference between "goto war against Indigenous people" and what the current Federal approach is.

The investment thesis is massively risked currently for new inter-provincial pipeline projects, you don't even have to take my word for it, you just have to go review all the new projects being proposed. And if you think that's because of some pie-eyed "oil and gas won't be around soon" notion, you're just wrong. Not sure how else to say it. The IEA, EIA, universities, banks, governments worldwide- literally nobody in the world, except for the left leaning Canadian, thinks oil and gas is going to just disappear from our energy systems in the next multiple decades. So the investment thesis for pipelines should exist and yet none are capable of being proposed.

Nay- no inter-provincial pipelines are being proposed. Meaning any pipelines with federal jurisdiction. Yet inner-provincial pipelines ARE being proposed and built. Now, why do you think that is?

edit- I'll add that in no way whatsoever is it just an "Indigenous" issue. That overly simplifies the complexity of the problem that the Federal government has created.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Yup, which is also on clear display with the "just transition" resistance. She's directly hurting Albertans because of ideology. As an Albertan who would be interested in transitioning from my O&G career, it's a real kick in the pickle. But UCP supporters don't really care about anyone else, so this stuff is all a big win for their brains.

UCP supports are preventing you from a career change? You must have the longest arms around.

That’s a reach.

[Tron_fdc]

Frequitude:

I don't think anyone is saying wind and solar are THE solution. What I've been saying is they are PART of it, and bringing on all that capacity will help supply the demand as Alberta grows, while hopefully flattening the price spikes.

Peaker plants are apparently exempt from the net zero legislation. So they can continue to operate as is. If there's a business case for more peaker plants, the market SHOULD build them. If prices are spiking regularly, I'd think that would happen.

From what I understand, gas power plants commissioned before 2025 are also exempt.

Anything brought on after that has 20 years to comply. Google tells me the lifespan of a gas turbine that operates 24/7 is around 10 years. The math on the useful life of a gas plant is open to interpretation here, but it's a pretty big timeline; 2 decades to figure out CCUS.

The feds are also committing 40 billion to the provinces over 10 years to achieve their goal. If Alberta is the "problem emitter" in Canada, it stands to reason the bulk of that money will be here.

IMO the federal legislation is largely toothless, there's a PILE of money that is going to be up for grabs from them (on top of the cash already going into the industry) so it makes no sense whatsoever for Smith to pause renewables and pick a fight with Trudeau here. It only makes sense if her goal is whip up her base, which seems to be what is happening.

Calf was also 100% right with his comments on the cost of transmission and distribution. That portion of your bill is outrageous and it should be addressed.

TL/DR IMO go heavy renewables alongside nuclear and have Ottawa help fund it.