Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[PeteMoss]

Pollivere is basically Ron DeSantis from 9 months ago. Barely anyone knows much about him and the random article or news story they saw about him seemed pretty good.

Can he avoid the crash once people start paying even the smallest amount of attention to him? Who knows at this point but just being the guy taking shots at an unpopular government is pretty easy compared to convincing people you deserve their vote.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Today's polling is far more consistent and far more scary for Liberals. Canadians aren't choosing Poilievre, they are choosing anyone but Liberals / Trudeau.

I’d say it’s probably more the latter, which will make things interesting if(when IMO) Trudeau steps down as party leader before the election.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Unfortunately he's also nearing Andrew Scheer numbers from 6-7 months before the 2019 election when the Conservatives were polling in the high 30s to low 40s.

Obviously the Conservatives would be the heavy favorites if an election happened now, and probably the odds-on favorites no matter when an election happens given the Liberals' long tenure. But things can change rapidly.

2019 topic of the day was climate change and healthcare, while today main issues are affordability and taxes. Liberals are seen as stronger on the 2019 key issues.

Scheer still also got over 34% of the vote and won the popular vote. The big difference though is that in 2019 Liberals also consistently polled around 35% when the election got called at near parity with the CPC.

The spread is much higher now. Liberals are close to Stephane Dion territory.

Again nothing matters until elections, but things should need to change dramatically for the better when Liberal policies are doing the exact opposite.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1691198005964345345

[timun]

Originally Posted by Firebot

See Argentine a traditionally socialist country who just elected a far right party in protest due to their economy imploding.

Argentina's political tradition is populism, which vacillates all over the spectrum.

They just had primaries; they haven't elected anyone. Argentina's election won't happen for another couple months.

[timun]

Originally Posted by opendoor

If they play it right, they may be able to benefit from a reaction against a policy that they'd also implement. They'd basically just need to keep quiet about it other than spouting a few empty platitudes about it being "broken" and it'll probably work.

Pretty much encapsulates conservativism in action in this country. Rail against Liberal policies when not in government, then not bother to reverse the policies when they do get in government, or make them even worse.

Actually the Liberals are also pretty bad for this too, to be fair.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Trudeau's desperate cabinet shuffle was not done on a whim.

You would also be very incorrect and very revisionist about the bolded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...deral_election

Liberals were consistently polling in majority territory in July - Aug 2021 getting a push with covid and vaccines, precisely causing Liberals to call a pointless election in the middle of a pandemic for pure political gain.

That the Liberals managed to piss off Canadians so much that Conservative even got a dark horse chance of a win (until the Kenney disaster) is a testament to their arrogance.

Today's polling is far more consistent and far more scary for Liberals. Canadians aren't choosing Poilievre, they are choosing anyone but Liberals / Trudeau.

Conservatives have invested so much energy into hating Trudeau at the federal and provincial levels that a Liberal leadership change could take a lot of wind out of their sails.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I also find it funny how immigration is a hot point right now, but the Conservatives have basically no intention of reducing immigration. Because they too understand the necessity of growing our labor force if we want to be able to afford healthcare, CPP, OAS without significant tax increases.

If they play it right, they may be able to benefit from a reaction against a policy that they'd also implement. They'd basically just need to keep quiet about it other than spouting a few empty platitudes about it being "broken" and it'll probably work.

You really think CPC has no intentions of reducing?

Let’s see what is said after an election.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Yoho

You really think CPC has no intentions of reducing?

Let’s see what is said after an election.

Would it be unreasonable to expect that what they say and do after the election would be similar?

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Would it be unreasonable to expect that what they say and do after the election would be similar?

Yes, very similar to the Liberals.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Yes, very similar to the Liberals.

You're not wrong. If the Liberals had actually followed through with electoral reform, I might actually still be voting for them.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Yes, very similar to the Liberals.

But your comment was a reflection of your views, not the liberals.

So are you saying you like the liberals now? Like seriously Yoho, pick a lane here.

I’m saying this as someone who despite historically disagreeing with a lot of what you post hasn’t supported the lynch mob that thinks you should be banned or anything like that but with that being said this is a pretty good example of you posting something that you yourself couldn’t possibly defend even if you used ignorance as the excuse. So I guess my question would be what value do you see in doing that?

[Azure]

Has there been a Prime Minister who has broken more election promises than Trudeau has?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Azure

Has there been a Prime Minister who has broken more election promises than Trudeau has?

Hey now. He apologizes.

[timun]

On sheer volume there hasn't been a PM who's broken more promises in recent memory, but it's also a result of the Liberal Party making more promises in the first place. Fortunately there are people who take it upon themselves to track this stuff, e.g. https://www.polimeter.org/en/trudeau...progress_desc#

Truth be told I'm actually kind of happy he broke several very dumb promises.

[TheKiprusoffResurrection]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I’d say it’s probably more the latter, which will make things interesting if(when IMO) Trudeau steps down as party leader before the election.

I think you're bang on.

If the Liberals ditch Trudeau, PP is in serious trouble. He has very little appeal, aside from not being Trudeau.

I do wonder though, if Freeland is the replacement, has her name been tarnished by being so closely associated with Trudeau? Would Canadians sick of Trudeau be willing to give their vote to one of his most trusted allies?

I am honestly not sure. I might be willing to vote for her, but would really prefer a "fresh face". Not sure who that would be though.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by TheKiprusoffResurrection

I think you're bang on.

If the Liberals ditch Trudeau, PP is in serious trouble. He has very little appeal, aside from not being Trudeau.

I do wonder though, if Freeland is the replacement, has her name been tarnished by being so closely associated with Trudeau? Would Canadians sick of Trudeau be willing to give their vote to one of his most trusted allies?

I am honestly not sure. I might be willing to vote for her, but would really prefer a "fresh face". Not sure who that would be though.

I think if freeland becomes the next leader of the LPC they’re going to use her history with Putin to distract people from the Trudeau connection and present her as a tougher leader than PP, right or wrong it’s probably a good strategy because I just don’t see PP as someone with enough backbone to stand up for Canada against other world leaders.

[Azure]

Kick dumb and dumber to the curb, repeal immigration levels to something more sane, and you win the next election.

But guess what they'll do instead?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Azure

Kick dumb and dumber to the curb, repeal immigration levels to something more sane, and you win the next election.

But guess what they'll do instead?

I think it’s pretty doubtful that PP is going to lower immigration levels, even if he uses it as a dogwhistle to certain elements of his voter base so it’s unlikely that it becomes a contentious enough issue for the liberals to build their platform around

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Yoho

You really think CPC has no intentions of reducing?

Let’s see what is said after an election.

Reducing the longer-term plan of 500-550K a year? No. I'm sure they'd make a big show of reducing from 2022's huge number, but the Liberals will do that too (COVID backlogs and the Ukraine war won't happen every year).

We're a country whose current population will lose about 100K/year from its labour force without immigration. That, coupled with the fact that the big businesses who largely dictate the Liberals' and Conservatives' policies don't want a labour shortage driving up wages and reducing their profits, means that lowering immigration significantly isn't really a viable option. We need about 350K working-age immigrants (which is about 525K total) to maintain our 30+ year average of 1.25% labour force growth per year.