Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

500-600K sounds about right, but it doesn't take into consideration the other paths to Canada yearly, such as permanent residency and refugees, which put the total up to over one million last year.

But last year was a bit of an aberration due to COVID backlogs and almost 200K Ukrainians fleeing the war and coming to Canada. That's not going to continue every year.

And as much as people talk about the costs of higher immigration, we also need to be cognizant of the costs of restricting labour force growth. Much of our system (i.e. healthcare, taxes, CPP, etc.) relies on the labour force increasing over time to pay for the growing non-working population (both due to demographics and longer life expectancy). If we are going to restrict immigration, create a stagnant labour force, and reduce the population employment rate, then that means we will all need to be willing to pay more money in taxes, CPP premiums, etc. to pay for an aging population.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Edgy stuff here. Killing it.

As opposed to this claptrap?

I don't blame her for trying to be understandable to the opposition. You need to speak in words they comprehend.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by transplant99

As opposed to this claptrap?

Is it helpful to make believe that I’d automatically be for that???

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1688217344055648257

[Maritime Q-Scout]

I don't think we can put much stock into the 338 projections until they at least have the ridings correct.

They're still using the current ridings with current incumbents.

If the redistricting holds, the landscape changes drastically where I live.

It's also weird to have these polls without even knowing who's running.

I've seen these polls change drastically during an election, I don't see the point of them in the middle of a term. It's really more 'do you think the PM is doing a good job?' Where you'll have a large percentage of Liberal voters say no, but would still vote for him over Poilievre.

[Yoho]

I think people have a good idea who is running.

[timun]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

They're still using the current ridings with current incumbents.


It's also weird to have these polls without even knowing who's running.

In the vast majority of ridings it really doesn't matter who the candidates are precisely.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by timun

In the vast majority of ridings it really doesn't matter who the candidates are precisely.

It probably matters who the Liberal leader is though, and I don't think that is firmly decided yet.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

I don't even know what my riding will be, let alone who's running in it.

Of the two local ridings none of the candidates can be presumed, even the incumbents.

No way you can make an accurate projection.

[opendoor]

I think the bigger issue is that there aren't even many polls right now. The most recent poll in their model is from 2 weeks ago and the one before that is from a month ago.

That's not necessarily a huge issue on its face, but when their projection changed from a Liberal minority in early July, to a dead heat for almost all of July, to a near majority for Conservatives now while only adding adding 1-2 new polls to the model in that time frame, it does seem a bit erratic.

[curves2000]

Polling at this stage is still quite tough as people really don't know how they will vote when the time comes depending on platform etc.

I think the Liberals are going to try really really hard to defend that GTA and southern Ontario base as much as possible and will need to seriously look at economic policies. I know a lot of Liberals are very proud of a lot of their accomplishments but the truth of the matter, on the economic file and on economic issues, they are extremely vulranable. We have been hearing since 2014/2015 about "investing in the middle class" and it's a lot of chatter but your average middle class, middle income student, family, senior etc doesn't feel like they are getting ahead. Sure there are some programs that have come out and some chq's that have been sent to people for various programs but on the day to day front, very few people are actually ahead and a lot of people are falling behind in dangerious ways.

Look for the new cabinet to at least try and come up with some solid economic policies to try and help real people. It's a tough hill to climb at the moment and it will probably be the Liberals undoing either this election or next. It's present in the data and in ways a lot of us don't think. Immigrants are coming here and are heading back in droves as the struggles are real for a lot of them. Canadians are leaving to leave abroad in decently high numbers as the combo of lifestyle/reward/opportunity may be better in a lot of countries. You will see this with retiree's of immigrant Canadians and some of their children.

The Conservatives will need to adjust their strategy and make gains where they need do. They can pretty much forget about the Prairies and try and see how their policies will increase voter turnout for the larger cities in Canada like Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

If they lose this election against the Liberals and a very beatable Trudeau, they will need to look in the mirror and have an honest convo about who their next leader needs to be.

Regardless, hopefully all these parties start actually working together for the benefits of Canadians and actually getting meaningful things accomplished that HELP Canadians with what they need help on. Government's across the board are literally failing at some of the basic level things that they need to do and it isn't as a result of low spending, a lack of employee's. We've literally added hundreds of billions in debt, expanded the civil service across the board and can't manage basic services like military, healthcare, aging infrastructure, homelessness, drug and mental health problems.

Crazy times all around.

[Johnny Makarov]

The Cons have ZERO chance after the Libs come out with the PP attack ads.

They just need to loop one with him endorsing Danielle Smith in the GTA and the election is over.

[TheKiprusoffResurrection]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

The Cons have ZERO chance after the Libs come out with the PP attack ads.

They just need to loop one with him endorsing Danielle Smith in the GTA and the election is over.

I live in the GTA, I can guarantee you 9/10 people that reside here have no idea who Danielle Smith is.

That's not to say PP is a great candidate, or that I think he'll win, just saying the majority of southern Ontarians do not follow Alberta politics.

IMO, if the Liberals replace Trudeau they probably win. Might even gain some seats. If they run him again, it's anybody guess. Maybe a PP minority, but I'm not sure how long that lasts unless the Bloc is able and willing to work with him.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by TheKiprusoffResurrection

I live in the GTA, I can guarantee you 9/10 people that reside here have no idea who Danielle Smith is.

That's not to say PP is a great candidate, or that I think he'll win, just saying the majority of southern Ontarians do not follow Alberta politics.

IMO, if the Liberals replace Trudeau they probably win. Might even gain some seats. If they run him again, it's anybody guess. Maybe a PP minority, but I'm not sure how long that lasts unless the Bloc is able and willing to work with him.

Oh they'll know who she is after the attack ads.

[TheKiprusoffResurrection]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Oh they'll know who she is after the attack ads.

Yeah, I mean it's not a terrible idea, I could see them running those ads.

I still would say a much better strategy for the Liberals is simply to replace Trudeau. I think with a fresh face, they win fairly handily.

[curves2000]

I don't know about the replacing Trudeau part. Personal opinion that one of the significant reasons for Trudeau's split with his wife was him wanting to go for it again.

Perhaps his wife was initially onboard with him being in office for 5+ years and was willing to support him as long as possible but perhaps wasn't interested in a 10, 12 year term or Trudeau went back on a promise.

Men in sports, politics, business and more need a certain amount of selfishness in order to succeed. Their spouse and their families sometimes have a different level of stamina and understanding after a while and everybody has a breaking point.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I don't know about the replacing Trudeau part. Personal opinion that one of the significant reasons for Trudeau's split with his wife was him wanting to go for it again.

Perhaps his wife was initially onboard with him being in office for 5+ years and was willing to support him as long as possible but perhaps wasn't interested in a 10, 12 year term or Trudeau went back on a promise.

Men in sports, politics, business and more need a certain amount of selfishness in order to succeed. Their spouse and their families sometimes have a different level of stamina and understanding after a while and everybody has a breaking point.

I dont like to speculate on the marriage thing, but...it does make a degree of sense. They might not have been getting along, support is negotiated but if he wants to go again she's not on board?

Or maybe she's planning on running against him! Now those attack ads would be worth watching!!

Trudeau vs. Trudeau....ThunderDOME!!!!

"He leaves the Toilet seat up, replaces the toilet paper backwards and loads the dishwasher completely the wrong way!!! Is this who you want to lead this country?"

[MoneyGuy]

I’ll repeat what I tweeted; more characters here.

I’m not a Trudeau fan but those people who are vilifying him for posing for a photo with his son and wearing bright colours, saying he’s gay, are trash. It’s a bloody movie and he’s with his kid, FFS. Attack his politics, yes, but the other is stupid and homophobic. Stop it!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I’ll repeat what I tweeted; more characters here.

I’m not a Trudeau fan but those people who are vilifying him for posing for a photo with his son and wearing bright colours, saying he’s gay, are trash. It’s a bloody movie and he’s with his kid, FFS. Attack his politics, yes, but the other is stupid and homophobic. Stop it!

I havent even seen that photo, so oh well.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I’ll repeat what I tweeted; more characters here.

I’m not a Trudeau fan but those people who are vilifying him for posing for a photo with his son and wearing bright colours, saying he’s gay, are trash. It’s a bloody movie and he’s with his kid, FFS. Attack his politics, yes, but the other is stupid and homophobic. Stop it!

So I actually went and looked it up....so Trudeau wore a pink shirt to see Barbie? So what? The guy likes to dress for the occasion.