[News] With the 59th OA pick, the Flames select C Topi Rönni

[Samonadreau]

O'Reilly also went straight into the NHL after being drafted ao couldnt pad his juniors stats

[sureLoss]

A review for some top performers at the third round of games from the 2023 World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, featuring Axel Sandin Pellikka, Topi Ronni, and Cole Eiserman

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroi...hree-standouts

As discussed above, much of Finland's game revolves around speed and directness. Defensemen play high flips and quick, vertical wingers pursue the loose puck. It's a formula that can put any team under pressure, and it doesn't require much time or space for something nice and chaotic to break Finland's way.

However, Topi Ronni (a 2022 second round selection from the Calgary Flames) brings a slightly different element to the Finnish line-up. He is an excellent neutral zone facilitator, who does tremendous work in build-up play for the Fins. He is quick and alert with good vision. He didn't find his way onto the scoresheet, but he's constantly making little plays to keep everything moving in the right direction for his team.

Ronni played in the bumper spot on Finland's power play, where he was effective both in drifting toward the perimeter to create or in collapsing in toward the crease to apply pressure to Sweden's goaltender.

Ronni also turned in a serious shift short-handed for his team. Finland had a full two-minute 5-on-3 to kill off, and Ronni was among the key factors in pulling that off. He remained calm and patient, allowing Sweden to effectively kill off its own power play with perimeter passing as he stood firm and protected the slot.

“I think I’m just all around more ready, ready to play pro games,” Ronni said at Flames development camp. “I think I’m mentally a lot tougher than I was a year ago." He went on to add that he intends to work his way up the lineup with Tappare in the SM-Liiga in Finland. If his performance this week in Plymouth is any indicator, that should be well within reach.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Love it. Give me a guy that shuts down opposing lines any day of the week. Really, really hoping he is our new Backlund. Sure looking like it.

[bax]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Love it. Give me a guy that shuts down opposing lines any day of the week. Really, really hoping he is our new Backlund. Sure looking like it.

I wish I was as optimistic as you are with Ronni.

I just don’t see an NHL player there. Same goes with Kuznetsov and Stromgren. Just bad selections in the second round from 20-22.

I’m more optimistic on Morin though.

I know it’s hindsight, but plenty of people were clamoring for Hutson in 22 and Stankoven in 21.

Production models aren’t everything but according to Bader’s model here is the current likelihood for each player becoming a star and an NHL player:

Ronni: 1%, 13%
Stromgren: 1%, 24%
Hutson: 74%, 81%
Stankoven: 38%, 89%

Really wish this mgmt team would stop prioritizing size. You can buy and trade for size.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by bax

I wish I was as optimistic as you are with Ronni.

I just don’t see an NHL player there. Same goes with Kuznetsov and Stromgren. Just bad selections in the second round from 20-22.

I’m more optimistic on Morin though.

I know it’s hindsight, but plenty of people were clamoring for Hutson in 22 and Stankoven in 21.

Production models aren’t everything but according to Bader’s model here is the current likelihood for each player becoming a star and an NHL player:

Ronni: 1%, 13%
Stromgren: 1%, 24%
Hutson: 74%, 81%
Stankoven: 38%, 89%

Really wish this mgmt team would stop prioritizing size. You can buy and trade for size.

Maybe not Backlund offensively, but I would be happy if he could provide superb defense as a bottom 6 center. I am not asking for a Barkov clone.

While I agree that there were better picks out there, we just don't know what those players are going to turn out to be until they get some NHL ice time. Ronni was never going to be a top 6 forward in Calgary imo. But I still think he's got what it takes to crack an NHL roster in his career.

[bax]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Maybe not Backlund offensively, but I would be happy if he could provide superb defense as a bottom 6 center. I am not asking for a Barkov clone.

While I agree that there were better picks out there, we just don't know what those players are going to turn out to be until they get some NHL ice time. Ronni was never going to be a top 6 forward in Calgary imo. But I still think he's got what it takes to crack an NHL roster in his career.

I totally agree with most of what you’re saying. A bottom 6 shutdown center would be a great outcome and I would be very happy with that.

My issue is that you should be drafting for top of the lineup players in the second round, not bottom six and bottom pairing guys.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by bax

I wish I was as optimistic as you are with Ronni.

I just don’t see an NHL player there. Same goes with Kuznetsov and Stromgren. Just bad selections in the second round from 20-22.

I’m more optimistic on Morin though.

I know it’s hindsight, but plenty of people were clamoring for Hutson in 22 and Stankoven in 21.

Production models aren’t everything but according to Bader’s model here is the current likelihood for each player becoming a star and an NHL player:

Ronni: 1%, 13%
Stromgren: 1%, 24%
Hutson: 74%, 81%
Stankoven: 38%, 89%

Really wish this mgmt team would stop prioritizing size. You can buy and trade for size.

I don't think Roni was a size play...

Also with Bader, is there any evidence that his model actually works? Does he have a 2018 draft list we could peruse? His methods have always left me wanting more and his comps are so varied that I'm always wondering if this is just a labor intensive tribute to randomness.

[devo22]

the thing with this particular draft is that, after all the trades, we had just a single value pick along with two late darts. I certainly would have prefered to use this pick on a boom-or-bust prospect over a "safe" pick whose ceiling is probably a shutdown 3C, but it is what it is. Let's hope there's a player there.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by bax

I wish I was as optimistic as you are with Ronni.

I just don’t see an NHL player there. Same goes with Kuznetsov and Stromgren. Just bad selections in the second round from 20-22.

I’m more optimistic on Morin though.

I know it’s hindsight, but plenty of people were clamoring for Hutson in 22 and Stankoven in 21.

Production models aren’t everything but according to Bader’s model here is the current likelihood for each player becoming a star and an NHL player:

Ronni: 1%, 13%
Stromgren: 1%, 24%
Hutson: 74%, 81%
Stankoven: 38%, 89%

Really wish this mgmt team would stop prioritizing size. You can buy and trade for size.

Ronni is 6'2. That's not huge, just kind of average NHL size.

Flames last 4 first rounders don't show me some sort of size priority:

23: Honzek 6'4
21: Coronato 5'10
20: Zary 6'0
19: Pelletier 5'9

I don't think there's any demonstrable size bias in later rounds either. Some picks are big, sure, but more are average and a fair number are small.

[bax]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Ronni is 6'2. That's not huge, just kind of average NHL size.

Flames last 4 first rounders don't show me some sort of size priority:

23: Honzek 6'4
21: Coronato 5'10
20: Zary 6'0
19: Pelletier 5'9

I don't think there's any demonstrable size bias in later rounds either. Some picks are big, sure, but more are average and a fair number are small.

Conroy himself said it was a priority to add size last draft.

Regardless, the size thing isn’t so much of them going out and drafting huge players, it’s that they are overlooking smaller guys who have dominated like Stankoven and Hutson.

When you’re not picking at the top of the draft, it’s extremely difficult to add elite level skill. I would just prefer they took more of these swings in the second round since they aren’t drafting in the top 10.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by bax

I wish I was as optimistic as you are with Ronni.

I just don’t see an NHL player there. Same goes with Kuznetsov and Stromgren. Just bad selections in the second round from 20-22.

I’m more optimistic on Morin though.

I know it’s hindsight, but plenty of people were clamoring for Hutson in 22 and Stankoven in 21.

Production models aren’t everything but according to Bader’s model here is the current likelihood for each player becoming a star and an NHL player:

Ronni: 1%, 13%
Stromgren: 1%, 24%
Hutson: 74%, 81%
Stankoven: 38%, 89%

Really wish this mgmt team would stop prioritizing size. You can buy and trade for size.

Obviously you can make the case for others, but the Bader model seems a bit out of whack if Hutson has a 74% chance to be a star and 81% chance to be a player. The star number seems ridiculously high. To me Bedard should be about 80%. There are no guarantees.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Major Major

I don't think Roni was a size play...

Also with Bader, is there any evidence that his model actually works? Does he have a 2018 draft list we could peruse? His methods have always left me wanting more and his comps are so varied that I'm always wondering if this is just a labor intensive tribute to randomness.

He doesn’t have a list, but I pay for his subscription service so I can go back and look at any specific players you would be curious about?

Just checking in on some star level players that went later in the draft. Here is the percentages he had for them becoming stars during their draft year:

Point - 48%
Kucherov - 70%
Gaudreau - 21%
Caufield - 60%

His model isn’t perfect. It basically just draws on historical data and outcomes then compares that to what the player produced at the same age. It does show that certain types of players continue to get overlooked though.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Obviously you can make the case for others, but the Bader model seems a bit out of whack if Hutson has a 74% chance to be a star and 81% chance to be a player. The star number seems ridiculously high. To me Bedard should be about 80%. There are no guarantees.

Well 74% isn’t a guarantee.

Hutson is interesting because he had an insane freshman season in college as a defenseman scoring 48 points in 39 games. He produced more from the backend then Gaudreau did as a forward.

That kind of production is basically unheard for a defenseman hence why his star probability went from 53% to 74% from his draft year until now.

Bedard is sitting at 99%. For comparison sake:

Mackinnon: 54%
McDavid 99%
Crosby: 99%
Yakupov: 61%
Lafreniere: 61%
Hughes: 99%

[Mitch]

Yea, I bet you could spend 15 minutes and find a dozen instances of Bader's model (or any other model from these twitter stat 'pros') completely missing the mark. Micro-stats are fun to observe and analyze for trends, but there are far too many fans that point to them as factual when projecting players. It's about as useful as pulling up most recent junior point standings and sorting by PPG.

The talented individuals in data analytics are being employed by NHL teams, not posting on twitter.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Mitch

Yea, I bet you could spend 15 minutes and find a dozen instances of Bader's model (or any other model from these twitter stat 'pros') completely missing the mark. Micro-stats are fun to observe and analyze for trends, but there are far too many fans that point to them as factual when projecting players. It's about as useful as pulling up most recent junior point standings and sorting by PPG.

The talented individuals in data analytics are being employed by NHL teams, not posting on twitter.

Well duh.

No model is going to be 100% correct, that is impossible. The point is it’s another data point to consider in your analysis and ultimately help you make the best possible decision. I don’t see anybody pointing to Bader’s model (or any other model) and stating they are facts.

Even if you just glanced at the outliers to help make your pick you could ask yourself “based off production, age, and historical comparables why are we taking the guy that becomes a superstar 2% of the time over the guy that becomes a superstar 70% of the time.” (Wotherspoon vs Kucherov).

It’s just another tool to help understand players because the truth is drafting 18 year olds will never be anything close to an exact science.

Also your dismissal of public models is misguided. It is well known that multiple NHL teams use public models as part of the decision making progress.

Eric Tulsky, the Assistant GM of the Canes when asked about private vs public data said “using public information to answer questions is how I got my start in working with hockey data”. He also added “We absolutely do look at the work being done in the public sphere. External work can help counteract a bias that I don’t hear discussed very often”.

Tyler Dellow is the VP of Analytics for the Devils and he got started by founding a obscure hockey analytics blog.

[UKflames]

Blimey, not allowed any positivity about any of our prospects. We have an article saying what an excellent game Ronni had, doing lots of things right, killing penalties, sneaky plays and that he is aiming to better himself to move up the team line up, nearly the next comment 'won't be an NHL player'.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by UKflames

Blimey, not allowed any positivity about any of our prospects. We have an article saying what an excellent game Ronni had, doing lots of things right, killing penalties, sneaky plays and that he is aiming to better himself to move up the team line up, nearly the next comment 'won't be an NHL player'.

It wasn't really that negative. He was basically pointing out a model that says maybe we should temper expectations - I'm always overly optimistic about our prospects (by choice), but I don't see a problem with pointing to statistical models that don't support an optimistic view... it's the posters that seem to be cheering for the Flames to fail that bothers me.

[bax]

Originally Posted by UKflames

Blimey, not allowed any positivity about any of our prospects. We have an article saying what an excellent game Ronni had, doing lots of things right, killing penalties, sneaky plays and that he is aiming to better himself to move up the team line up, nearly the next comment 'won't be an NHL player'.

I didn’t say he won’t be an NHL player, just that I don’t personally see it. It’s only one man’s opinion.

He’s a Flame though so I’ll cheer for him to become the best player that he can and hopefully prove me wrong.

I didn’t mean to bring any negativity, just voicing some frustration with how the Flames have been drafting lately.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by bax

My issue is that you should be drafting for top of the lineup players in the second round, not bottom six and bottom pairing guys.

Yeah why use high picks for scrubs when you can find Hathaway, Lomberg and Duehr

They are also easy to find in UFAs

The problem here is the Flames scouting in Europe.
Kylington was the only one they found in a long time and he was a well known faller

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by bax

Well 74% isn’t a guarantee.

Hutson is interesting because he had an insane freshman season in college as a defenseman scoring 48 points in 39 games. He produced more from the backend then Gaudreau did as a forward.

That kind of production is basically unheard for a defenseman hence why his star probability went from 53% to 74% from his draft year until now.

Bedard is sitting at 99%. For comparison sake:

Mackinnon: 54%
McDavid 99%
Crosby: 99%
Yakupov: 61%
Lafreniere: 61%
Hughes: 99%

What does the Bader model currently rate Coronato?

I think that model could reduce a lot of the noise by taking size at a given age into account.

Hutson being 5'9" at 19 should reduce his rating a bit. Mackinnon being 6'" at 18 should have helped his. For example. But that would have also helped Lafreniere, and look how that is progressing...

I would normalize size similar to age for the given league. But reduce the effect at around 6' and possibly have an inverse effect above6'4". Basically enhance a rating if projected for NHL size, but if the kid is growing like a weed penalize the rating since that will affect development.

Is Hutson the next Adam Fox? Maybe. But Fox has two inches of height on him.