American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Rutuu]

It's interesting that folks resign themselves to a Trump presidency.

For the Republican nomination, DeSantis might just have to wait until a few more indictments land, and court proceedings begin. We're 11months out from when we'll have a candidate. Lots of time.

Other's will slither in if Trump is barred from running and there is a real chance he could face an unfavorable judgement.

Trump's polling is also slipping among Republicans. He lost to the Blue team before, maybe it was Covid, likely it was the economic slowdown associated with it. Again, not a slam dunk.

Add it all up, and if someone is willing to give you even money or better that Trump wins it's looking like an asymmetrical payoff.

[Galakanokis]

DeSantis is basically out of money and is letting his campaign staff go left, right and centre. He may not be able to even last a few months. He's a terrible candidate in that he has a complete lack of charisma and absolutely zero read on what it means to be human. Even republicans are noticing this.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

It's interesting that folks resign themselves to a Trump presidency.

For the Republican nomination, DeSantis might just have to wait until a few more indictments land, and court proceedings begin. We're 11months out from when we'll have a candidate. Lots of time.

Other's will slither in if Trump is barred from running and there is a real chance he could face an unfavorable judgement.

Trump's polling is also slipping among Republicans. He lost to the Blue team before, maybe it was Covid, likely it was the economic slowdown associated with it. Again, not a slam dunk.

Add it all up, and if someone is willing to give you even money or better that Trump wins it's looking like an asymmetrical payoff.

Trumps polling stronger than ever nice try.

It should bother people that the DOJ is weaponizing itself for political gain going into an election.

This is all nerf ball indictments and you know it.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1684025118421569536

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

DeSantis is basically out of money and is letting his campaign staff go left, right and centre. He may not be able to even last a few months. He's a terrible candidate in that he has a complete lack of charisma and absolutely zero read on what it means to be human. Even republicans are noticing this.

Yeah the media outlets figured since he got the rubes in Florida to hand him the reigns and then drink his culture war Kool aid that it would translate to the rest of the country. If somehow Trump isn’t the nominee it’ll end up being Youngkin or someone. DeSantis will be another Jeb Bush soon and he can go back to his little sunshine state fiefdom

[flylock shox]

I see absolutely no way Trump loses the Republican nomination unless he's dead or close to it. The Republican party doesn't really properly exist at the national level anymore: it's the Trump party now.



I think the Republicans are capable of getting 51% of the vote with Trump as their candidate, and probably top out at 45% without him. Tons of Republican voters are really Trump voters - he goes, and they just won't bother voting at all. With voter demographic changes working against them, Trump is probably their last, best, and only shot at power for the next 3 elections (though they only need him to win the next one, after which they may not need to worry about future ones anyway).

[Fuzz]

Man, the Democrats really need someone else to go against Trump if that's the case. It was close last time, I just can't see him pulling it off again.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Man, the Democrats really need someone else to go against Trump if that's the case. It was close last time, I just can't see him pulling it off again.

He lost all three houses by the same margin Hillary lost in 2016.

Nobody motivates Democrats and independants like Trump. Look no further than the mid-terms to see how young women feel about the GOP.

[Monahammer]

Meh, Biden is still polling slightly ahead of trump nationally.

These polls are meaningless until the republican primaries are over.

If only 59% of the party supports trump, and a good portion of the remaining are never trump, that might shift the balance of non-voters into the republican camp. As earlier identified, a Trump candidacy does motivate undecideds and independents to vote against with a high intensity. Combined with never trumpers it is probably enough to ensure a democrat victory again. I say probably because it was also probable that Hillary would beat him and she did not.

[nfotiu]

Biden's biggest risks are a 3rd party candidate, even a fairly insignicant one, or if the economy tanks. He should be able to carry the states he needs, but a 3rd party candidate even getting half a percent could be a disaster in the close states he needs.

[Old Yeller]

I just hope Republicans stay focused on taking away women's reproductive rights.. it's really working out well for them at the State level.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Biden's biggest risks are a 3rd party candidate, even a fairly insignicant one, or if the economy tanks. He should be able to carry the states he needs, but a 3rd party candidate even getting half a percent could be a disaster in the close states he needs.

not sure I see a potential third party candidate who could seriously damage Biden. People have floated the idea of either RFK Jr. oder Manchin running as independents, but I don't see how that would necessarily hurt Biden. RFK Jr. is a Democrat on paper, but it actually seems as if Republicans are more willing to buy the bat#### crazy stuff he's selling. Same thing with Manchin, his politics and views haven't exactly been left wing. Would those guys steal more votes from Biden or Trump? Not sure it's that cut and dry.

Not sure how much support somebody like Cornel West could garner. Not to discount third party candidates as possible spoilers (I do think Jill Stein hurt Hillary back in 2016), just not sure I see it for 2024 (so far).

[driveway]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

I think the Republicans are capable of getting 51% of the vote with Trump as their candidate, and probably top out at 45% without him. Tons of Republican voters are really Trump voters - he goes, and they just won't bother voting at all. With voter demographic changes working against them, Trump is probably their last, best, and only shot at power for the next 3 elections (though they only need him to win the next one, after which they may not need to worry about future ones anyway).

Do you mean 51% of the electoral college votes, or 51% of the popular vote? Trump has never broken 47% of the popular vote and no Republican has topped 51% since Bush/Quayle in 1988 (GW Bush got 50.7% in 2004).

Trump could win the election, but I see no way he wins the popular vote.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

DeSantis is basically out of money and is letting his campaign staff go left, right and centre. He may not be able to even last a few months. He's a terrible candidate in that he has a complete lack of charisma and absolutely zero read on what it means to be human. Even republicans are noticing this.

He should have waited 4 years when the race would be open. Read his own press clippings that he was successful and now he's done.

Newsom is smart, he is waiting for the ####storm to pass.

[Nyah]

At what point do you force these guys into retirement? It's ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1684267142839955456

[Barnet Flame]

I hope its nothing trivial.

[Fuzz]

Force them to pass the 'person, woman, man, camera, TV' test for starters.

[GreenLantern2814]

As the guy who suggested "Back to Brunch" as the new US politics thread title, the fact that it hasn't reached its limit nearly 75% through Biden's first term highlights how unacceptable it was/still is for Donald Trump to be the chief executive of the US government.

[devo22]

the crazy thing is there's even senators who are 9 years older than McConnell (Grassley, Feinstein). There should be an age limit, or even better, a term limit for these politicians for sure.

[Galakanokis]

And a reminder that KY passed a law preventing the Governor, Beshear from naming a democrat to replace McConnell.

But that had to be a stroke live on TV right?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

And a reminder that KY passed a law preventing the Governor, Beshear from naming a democrat to replace McConnell.

But that had to be a stroke live on TV right?

The way everyone reacted around him kinda indicates this is a fairly normal occurrence, so maybe not? Mini stroke?


I don't get why you'd want to spend your last days on Earth being a politician, but I guess that's why I'm not a politician.