2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread - Page 270 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Vinny01 · 07-26-2023, 08:55 AM

Dom on the Athletic released his 10 best and 10 worst contracts in the league this week.

Tkachuk was ranked the best deal league wide and Huberdeau was listed as 3rd worst.

Toonage · 07-26-2023, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Dom on the Athletic released his 10 best and 10 worst contracts in the league this week.

Tkachuk was ranked the best deal league wide and Huberdeau was listed as 3rd worst.

I hated that article. To Dom's credit (?) he says he wouldn't be shocked if Huberdeau wasn't on this list next year as he has the tools to bounce back.

Then why is he on the list at all? Huberdeau's contract hasn't even kicked in yet. Next year is the first year, the year Dom thinks he could bounce back.

Dumb.

Erick Estrada · 07-26-2023, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toonage

I hated that article. To Dom's credit (?) he says he wouldn't be shocked if Huberdeau wasn't on this list next year as he has the tools to bounce back.

Then why is he on the list at all? Huberdeau's contract hasn't even kicked in yet. Next year is the first year, the year Dom thinks he could bounce back.

Dumb.

It's not dumb if you pay attention to what he's doing. He simply uses his analytics of past seasons to predict future season performance for the remainder of the contract. Huberdeau had a massive drop off in point production last season and obviously recency bias plays a big role in analytical predicting of future drop off but at the same time it doesn't account for things that don't show up on the stats sheet like changing teams, new linemates, playing for a coach that's maybe not putting him in position to get the best of him, etc. He even says he's the one player on the list that he wouldn't be surprised if he's not on the list next season. Until next season happens though this is what his analytics is predicting.

Toonage · 07-26-2023, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's not dumb if you pay attention to what he's doing. He simply uses his analytics of past seasons to predict future seasons. Huberdeau had a massive drop off in point production last season and obviously recency bias plays a big role in analytical predicting of future drop off but at the same time it doesn't account for things that don't show up on the stats sheet like changing teams, new linemates, playing for a coach that's maybe not putting him in position to get the best of him, etc. He even says he's the one player on the list that he wouldn't be surprised if he's not on the list next season. Until next season happens though this is what his analytics is predicting.

His premise is that the contract - which just kicked in, which he hasn't played a year under yet - is bad. Fine, you can predict it will be bad, but when you come out and say this is an awful deal before the player has taken the ice under it, using one bad year to justify it and then squash the premise anyway by suggesting the player has the tools to bounce back?

It was crap.

Even the header "NHL's 10 worst contracts, 2023 edition: Jones, Parayko & Huberdeau lead the way" misleads

TheIronMaiden · 07-26-2023, 09:32 AM

I at best Huderdeau's contract is bad. At worst it is one of the worst in the league. I think you need a whole lot of Copium to think that even after he bounces back Huberdeau will be worth 10.5 Million for 8 years.

Monahammer · 07-26-2023, 09:34 AM

Have to agree with EE on this one. Even in simplistic terms, if you just chart last year's performance on a 1-1 basis and apply this year's contract value, Huby will indeed be vastly underperforming his contract.

Could the title be changed to "potential worst contracts" sure. But that seems awfully pedantic.

If huberdeau gets under 60 points this season we will all have to agree. I certainly hope he gets more, but all this exercise is doing is establishing that if he doesn't, it will be one of the worst contracts in the league. Which it will.

Monahammer · 07-26-2023, 09:35 AM

Frankly he probably needs to hit over 90 for the contract to not be overpaid. What are the odds that Huby puts down 90 points this season? Who is staking money on that?

Samonadreau · 07-26-2023, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toonage

I hated that article. To Dom's credit (?) he says he wouldn't be shocked if Huberdeau wasn't on this list next year as he has the tools to bounce back.

Then why is he on the list at all? Huberdeau's contract hasn't even kicked in yet. Next year is the first year, the year Dom thinks he could bounce back.

Dumb.

Other things factor in, like age. And he said he wouldnt be surprised, not he thinks so. Even if he bounces back a bit, it's the first year of an 8 year deal and Huberdeau is old.

Toonage · 07-26-2023, 09:46 AM

All speculative. We just can't call it the worst contract until he's played it out at least a few seasons.

Jones, Parayko, there is at lest a year or so under their belts.

A year from now, sure if he has a similar year to this past one slap Huberdeau on any list you want.

Until then, we don't know. Will he be the 115 point guy? Probably not? Will he be 90? Maybe. Will he age well? Maybe. People are treating this past year like he was never a good player.

Igottago · 07-26-2023, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Frankly he probably needs to hit over 90 for the contract to not be overpaid. What are the odds that Huby puts down 90 points this season? Who is staking money on that?

I think the most likely scenario Huberdeau does bounce back (he has to, because there's no way he's as bad as last season), but not to amazing 115 pts levels. I would guess a lot depends on who he's playing with, but even if Lindholm stays it's not like they had great chemistry together last season. I think he'll probably get 65-75 pts. Better, but probably not $10.5M worthy. I'm actually less concerned about the points total though, and more about him looking like an impact player who is going to make the big important plays when it counts. We saw nothing of that last season.

Enoch Root · 07-26-2023, 09:52 AM

Sure, if you use 1 year of performance to make the analysis, then the conclusion is fine.

The point is, using 1 year, especially when that year is a massive outlier, is a pretty terrible method of analysis

Monahammer · 07-26-2023, 09:57 AM

I no longer have an athletic subscription so I can't validate this, but I highly doubt that's what Dom did. He probably has a multiple season tracking system that then speculates based on trajectory. He can't just throw out the outlier last year, because that's important data for trajectory. His stat set does not show Huberdeau improving based on historical references. Could Huby buck the trend? Sure. Dom even says he's the most likely to buck the trend. But the data shows that he is unlikely to, and likely to have a bad contract.

That's the correct conclusion. Some of you live in dream land.

MacDaddy77 · 07-26-2023, 10:15 AM

Leafs just announced Murray is going on LTIR likely for the season.

dino7c · 07-26-2023, 10:15 AM

Guy under PPG last year just got 9.75

10M isn't what is used to be...top guys will be getting 15plus soon. If Huberdeau is PPG the contract will be decent

TrentCrimmIndependent · 07-26-2023, 10:16 AM

Nm

TrentCrimmIndependent · 07-26-2023, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Dom on the Athletic released his 10 best and 10 worst contracts in the league this week.

Tkachuk was ranked the best deal league wide and Huberdeau was listed as 3rd worst.

Wow they really bought into that ONE subpar transitional season over the rest of his career

Over the next 3-4 seasons at least, there will be worse contracts

Bleeding Red · 07-26-2023, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Leafs just announced Murray is going on LTIR likely for the season.

quelle suprise

MrMike · 07-26-2023, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Leafs just announced Murray is going on LTIR likely for the season.

Robidas island still alive and well

TrentCrimmIndependent · 07-26-2023, 10:29 AM

Heard Markstrom took a tumble on vacation, we better LTIR him you guys.

Spurs · 07-26-2023, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I just don't think Boston works as you would get a better return at the trade deadline.

Boston is a good fit for needing what we have but a terrible fit for giving us back what we would want in a trade.

You could see them having interest in all of Hanifin, Lindholm and Backlund but I don't see a fit in a trade for any of them.

Maybe Backlund but i would think that move doesn't make sense if they don't add a Lindholm level player as well.