Russia invades Ukraine

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They'd have eroded Putin's faster if they gave the weapons faster. Giving the Russians time to dig in and prepare sure doesn't improve the return on their investment

Well let's hear your theories then. I have two that make perfect sense. Cliff's is reasonable. You just seem stumped.

[CaptainCrunch]

The West is certainly standing by and watching Ukraine to chip away at the Russians. But it does sound like the Ukraine offensive is grinding to a halt, and now there are calls for more and more weapons and money. But at the same time, the Ukrainian's are paying in blood for every inch.



the Russians are supposedly using Cluster Munitions which the West opened the door on.


I expect that the West would be content to see this war go on forever as long as it drains Russian lives and resources, at the cost of Ukraine's soldiers and a greater and greater debt to the West.


Meanwhile Russia seems content to dig in and draw blood while going after port facilities and logistical centers.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Well let's hear your theories then. I have two that make perfect sense. Cliff's is reasonable. You just seem stumped.

I've spelled it out twice

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I explicitly said it in the post you quoted. I think US intelligence is scared of a post Putin Russia. What if someone worse takes power? Putin is very clearly scared of dying and of NATO involvement so nuclear retaliation doesn't seem to be a serious concern.

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

My thinking on why the slow drip of weapons has changed. It's not fear of escalation. It's great of an outright Russian loss. It's a fear of Putin being replaced with someone worse. They want Russia defeated but not Putin, because then you could have Prigozhin type in charge of the military and nukes

[CliffFletcher]

There’s maybe six months of the year when Ukraine is suitable for mechanized offensives. Ukraine was on the defensive last campaigning season because the Russians hadn’t yet shot their bolt, and it took months for Western material to start to arrive en masse.

The 2023 campaigning season didn’t open until late May. By then, the Russians had had six months to develop defence in depth supported by artillery - something their military is actually good at. So it was always going to be a tough row to hoe for Ukraine’s army. That’s the reason for the modest gains of the offensive - it’s just really tough to make big gains on the ground against a heavily dug-in enemy unless you have air superiority and/or overwhelming numbers on the ground.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

the Russians are supposedly using Cluster Munitions which the West opened the door on.

?????

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ctures-suggest

Russia has used cluster munitions extensively from the very start of the war, and also uses them in heavily populated areas indiscriminately.

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-is-...ine/a-61120270

Russia also used butterfly mines that looks like toys with the express intent to maim children.

There is some extreme revisionist history being projected here.

[activeStick]

As long as the weapons manufacturers and contractors, along with the select Americans get paid, this conflict will continue regardless how many Ukrainians get killed. The Americans don't give af about Ukrainians and this is the truth, as it always has been for every conflict that has been fought on non-US soil that America funds.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

the Russians are supposedly using Cluster Munitions which the West opened the door on.

Russians have been using cluster munition from very early on in the war, the West most certainly didn't open that door first.

[The Fonz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1683389615082799104

https://twitter.com/user/status/1683392105853472768

https://twitter.com/user/status/1683454569324376065

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Itse

Russians have been using cluster munition from very early on in the war, the West most certainly didn't open that door first.

To correct: both sides have admitted to using cluster munitions pretty early on in the war.

For the record, you'd be hard pressed to find any significant artillery power that has signed the treaty against cluster munitions. Ukraine, Russia, US, China, Koreas, Iran, Greece, Turkey, Finland... none have signed it. Perun pointed out that while saying 100+ countries have signed the ban sounds like a lot, possibly less than 10% of the worlds existing artillery is actually covered by the treaty.

I get why there's been a push to ban them, but I personally have no problem with US providing Ukraine with cluster munitions.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The West is certainly standing by and watching Ukraine to chip away at the Russians. But it does sound like the Ukraine offensive is grinding to a halt, and now there are calls for more and more weapons and money. But at the same time, the Ukrainian's are paying in blood for every inch.



the Russians are supposedly using Cluster Munitions which the West opened the door on.


I expect that the West would be content to see this war go on forever as long as it drains Russian lives and resources, at the cost of Ukraine's soldiers and a greater and greater debt to the West.


Meanwhile Russia seems content to dig in and draw blood while going after port facilities and logistical centers.

I think this is unfortunately quite correct. All those stockpiles of Russian weapons, which were being used to support anti-West militants/governments all over the world are now being exhausted in Ukraine. This substantially weakens Russia globally. It comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives, with them being the sacrificial pawns here.

This war really does change the Russian position globally though. Not only do they have fewer weapons, but Wagner, who was doing a lot of the dirty work globally, is likely lost.

Russia is going to be far more of an inner focused fortress like power than a globally reaching power.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Itse

To correct: both sides have admitted to using cluster munitions pretty early on in the war.

For the record, you'd be hard pressed to find any significant artillery power that has signed the treaty against cluster munitions. Ukraine, Russia, US, China, Koreas, Iran, Greece, Turkey, Finland... none have signed it. Perun pointed out that while saying 100+ countries have signed the ban sounds like a lot, possibly less than 10% of the worlds existing artillery is actually covered by the treaty.

I get why there's been a push to ban them, but I personally have no problem with US providing Ukraine with cluster munitions.

Russia is also covering the area with landmines. This is much bigger issue than than the unexploded cluster bombs, and when everything is said and done, you're going to need huge efforts to de-mine the area. Are a relatively few unexploded cluster munitions going to make that big of a difference, especially when Russia has already been using them extensively.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by blankall

Russia is also covering the area with landmines. This is much bigger issue than than the unexploded cluster bombs, and when everything is said and done, you're going to need huge efforts to de-mine the area. Are a relatively few unexploded cluster munitions going to make that big of a difference, especially when Russia has already been using them extensively.

Very much this. On top of the mines, there's all the other unexploded ordnance from all the artillery. Considering that the US stockpile of cluster munitions are likely in much better shape (and thus more likely to explode when intended) than the soviet era artillery rounds both sides have been using, it's questionable whether those cluster munitions are going to make the situation measurably worse than it already is.

Plus let's face it; Ukraine needs artillery rounds, both sides are already using cluster munitions if they can get their hands on them, and none of the participants of the war have signed on to the treaty banning them. That US stockpile is very significant in size, and it's even largely already in Europe for convenience, and the US wasn't planning on using them anyway.

Yes, using large quantities of them will mean dead civilians during and after the war. The continuation of the Russian invasion also means dead civilians. Russians are already using cluster munitions even on purely civilian targets.

Let Ukraine rain more death on the Russian lines. Cluster munitions are very effective weapons, and Ukraine needs good weapons to get as much of their country back as possible.

In other news: war sucks and the Russians responsible for this deserve a special place in hell.

[Coach]

Is it possible that the cluster munitions could be useful for clearing the vast minefields? Just carpet bomb them and set them all off?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Coach

Is it possible that the cluster munitions could be useful for clearing the vast minefields? Just carpet bomb them and set them all off?

But they who cleans up the 5%-30% (ranges on what don't explode varies) of unexploded cluster munitions?

[Coach]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

But they who cleans up the 5%-30% (ranges on what don't explode varies) of unexploded cluster munitions?

Yeah I guess I was thinking the leftovers would still be a lot less than what's currently there.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Coach

Is it possible that the cluster munitions could be useful for clearing the vast minefields? Just carpet bomb them and set them all off?

There's no easy way to clear minefields. You need specialized engineers or vehicles that specialize in mine clearing. And they would have to do it under fire.



There's not even an easy way to detect these mines like the ones from the last century. A lot of mines are now being made of composite materials, and you would need to either sniff explosives or have really sophistimacated mine scanning equipment.


Again and you'd have to do it under fire.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

But they who cleans up the 5%-30% (ranges on what don't explode varies) of unexploded cluster munitions?

Toss some landmines in there to explode the cluster munitions?

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Coach

Is it possible that the cluster munitions could be useful for clearing the vast minefields? Just carpet bomb them and set them all off?

Theoretically to some extent, but in practice, using artillery of any kind is neither reliable nor efficient for clearing modern minefields. Modern mines don't blow up that easily. They're built to be somewhat explosion resistant.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Toss some landmines in there to explode the cluster munitions?

How about cane toads? I hear Australia has a surplus. We could also send in Canmore bunnies. There are no shortage of invasive species that could solve 2 problems at once.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Toss some landmines in there to explode the cluster munitions?

Ok, then what do you do about the land mines you toss in that don't explode?