2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by traptor

Are we in win now though?
We sold our top scorer from last season. We hired a rookie coach.

We're saving multiple spots for prospects and trying to get younger.

In Conroy's recent interview, Kerr asked Conroy if this team is a legitimate contender. Conroy paused, then said that this team is better than it showed last season.

All this doesn't make me think that Conroy thinks this is a win-now team.

Conroy may prefer to trade guys like Lindholm and Hanafin for picks and prospects, but those trades are simply not available this offseason.

Perhaps they will be at the trade deadline.

But Vonroy’s course has been largely charted for him, regardless of what he thinks. He’s not going to pound a square peg into a round hole.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Conroy may prefer to trade guys like Lindholm and Hanafin for picks and prospects, but those trades are simply not available this offseason.

Perhaps they will be at the trade deadline.

But Vonroy’s course has been largely charted for him, regardless of what he thinks. He’s not going to pound a square peg into a round hole.

I think the Flames have been fairly transparent that their preference is to resign Lindholm. If they are forced to trade him, I hope that occurs before the start of the season and they also may have to take a futures based package, which would be fine by me.

Hanifin’s even more cut and dry. He’ll be traded at some point.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by TOfan

To your last point; you have to wonder though, by the time we even get half way through those 8 year deals, where’s the cap at? How many +10M/year players are there in the league? I suspect these things are going to go up significantly and there could be teams with 5 or more players earning that kind of dough.

If the cap goes up 5% per year, this is what the cap will be...

1. 2023-24: $83.50 million
2. 2024-25: $87.68 million
3. 2025-26: $92.06 million
4. 2026-27: $96.66 million
5. 2027-28: $101.49 million
6. 2028-29: $106.57 million
7. 2029-30: $111.90 million
8. 2030-31: $117.49 million
9. 2031-32: $123.37 million

A $10 million AAV contract is 12% of the cap this season. It's only 8.1% of a $123.37 million cap.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by TOfan

To your last point; you have to wonder though, by the time we even get half way through those 8 year deals, where’s the cap at? How many +10M/year players are there in the league? I suspect these things are going to go up significantly and there could be teams with 5 or more players earning that kind of dough.

Absolutely the cap will have increased considerably (with the caveat that it also may not, given some stresses in the world today). 10 million in 5 seasons may really look more like 6-7 million today.


What doesn't change is Nylander. Is he someone that you want your team to include as part of the 3-5 highest paid players on the team? I look at him as a very prolific scorer - even in the playoffs - but who doesn't provide a whole lot of other things (defensive play, physicality, leadership, intangibles), and doesn't fill a premier position.


#1 centre - 10-15 million.
#1 defencemen - 10-15 million.
#1 LW - Huberdeau - 10.5 million x 8 years


Do you want to include Nylander? I would rather have the flexibility to spend on a BETTER RW (some grit, more defensive ability, or other intangibles), or have that money for a better #2 center and a #2 and #3 defencemen.



I just don't see Nylander as a player you really want to commit 8 years to. I definitely agree on the rising cap and the implications of what that looks like in terms of 8-figure salaries per team.

[Enoch Root]

Agree with Calgary4Life.

Yes, the cap will go up, and yes these contracts will likely age fairly well (better than many expect), but the issue is that the Flames aren't in a good position for another one.

I am not worried about the Huberdeau contract. And I would be fine with a Lindholm contract in the high $8s. But ANOTHER older winger in the $10M area? Having 2 $10+M wingers would be a pretty heavy headwind for them. And it's not like Nylander is elite - he's a fine top line winger, but he isn't the guy you overload the cap for. Not when you already have more money tied up on wingers than any other position.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Absolutely the cap will have increased considerably (with the caveat that it also may not, given some stresses in the world today). 10 million in 5 seasons may really look more like 6-7 million today.


What doesn't change is Nylander. Is he someone that you want your team to include as part of the 3-5 highest paid players on the team? I look at him as a very prolific scorer - even in the playoffs - but who doesn't provide a whole lot of other things (defensive play, physicality, leadership, intangibles), and doesn't fill a premier position.


#1 centre - 10-15 million.
#1 defencemen - 10-15 million.
#1 LW - Huberdeau - 10.5 million x 8 years


Do you want to include Nylander? I would rather have the flexibility to spend on a BETTER RW (some grit, more defensive ability, or other intangibles), or have that money for a better #2 center and a #2 and #3 defencemen.



I just don't see Nylander as a player you really want to commit 8 years to. I definitely agree on the rising cap and the implications of what that looks like in terms of 8-figure salaries per team.

Nylander helped stir the drink on the second best PP in the league. On PP1, Matthews, Marner, and Tavares all had a notably worse CF% without Nylander, and Reilly was neutral. On PP2, Bunting, Sandin, Kerfoot, and Giordano all had a notable worse CF% without Nylander, but Jarnkrok was better without Nylander. The results are similar for xGF and high danger chances.


He might not PK or play with a lot of grit, but the Flames already have enough of those types of players. The Flames proved two seasons ago that they don't need an elite centerman if they have two stars on the wings.

If the Flames are shelling out $9-10M AAV on a 7-8 year contract, Nylander doesn't sound so bad for all of the offensive upside he brings to the table. That salary makes him the 11-12th highest paid winger in the league, which is fair if he continues his play from the past two seasons. Nylander just finished 8th in AST voting behind the likes of Rantanen, Kucherov, Pasternak, Tkachuk, Thompson, and Marner...pretty elite company.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Absolutely the cap will have increased considerably (with the caveat that it also may not, given some stresses in the world today). 10 million in 5 seasons may really look more like 6-7 million today.


What doesn't change is Nylander. Is he someone that you want your team to include as part of the 3-5 highest paid players on the team? I look at him as a very prolific scorer - even in the playoffs - but who doesn't provide a whole lot of other things (defensive play, physicality, leadership, intangibles), and doesn't fill a premier position.


#1 centre - 10-15 million.
#1 defencemen - 10-15 million.
#1 LW - Huberdeau - 10.5 million x 8 years


Do you want to include Nylander? I would rather have the flexibility to spend on a BETTER RW (some grit, more defensive ability, or other intangibles), or have that money for a better #2 center and a #2 and #3 defencemen.



I just don't see Nylander as a player you really want to commit 8 years to. I definitely agree on the rising cap and the implications of what that looks like in terms of 8-figure salaries per team.

Point taken and not one I would argue against too much.

That said, one thing Nylander excels at is zone entries and puck possession through the neutral zone, similar to Gaudreau. I’m not one who follows analytics all that closely but certainly like the discourse around it. I do recall a podcast where a guy named Ian Tulloch, who writes/covers the Leafs basically argued Nylander is more valuable than Marner. This was a few years ago when Marner was negotiating his contract but I think it’s fair to say there’s more to Nylander than the ability to put up points. Also have to wonder if he’s the bonafide 1RW on a squad, presumably playing with Huberdeau and Lindholm that there is some uncovered potential. It’s an attractive possibility.

[the-rasta-masta]

I look at a team like Nashville and wonder if it might be a good landing spot for Hanifin. They've always seemed to value defence in that organization. Perhaps taking a pending UFA in Barrie back as part of the return to help with Cap, and a prospect and pick?

Hanifin (extended)

for

Matthew Wood, Tyson Barrie, 2024 2nd


Then intend to flip Barrie at the TDL for an additional 2nd? Too little coming back to Flames?

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by getbak

If the cap goes up 5% per year, this is what the cap will be...

1. 2023-24: $83.50 million
2. 2024-25: $87.68 million
3. 2025-26: $92.06 million
4. 2026-27: $96.66 million
5. 2027-28: $101.49 million
6. 2028-29: $106.57 million
7. 2029-30: $111.90 million
8. 2030-31: $117.49 million
9. 2031-32: $123.37 million

A $10 million AAV contract is 12% of the cap this season. It's only 8.1% of a $123.37 million cap.

While I appreciate your vision of the salary cap, it is never going up 5% annually.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Sec214

While I appreciate your vision of the salary cap, it is never going up 5% annually.

I’m not sure why you’d think that.

We have already seen salary cap increases of:

12.82%
14.32%
12.72%
.18%
4.58%
8.25%
-6.69%
7.17%
7.31%
3.48%
2.24%
2.74%
6%
2.52%
0%
0%
1.23%
1.21%

Capfriendly seems to have the NHL estimating a 4.79% increase for 24/25 and a 5.14% for 25/26 (although unsure where they have those estimates from, haven’t looked into it)

Especially with inflation being what it has been in recent years, 5% increases seem on the pretty realistic side of projections.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I’m not sure why you’d think that.

We have already seen salary cap increases of:

12.82%
14.32%
12.72%
.18%
4.58%
8.25%
-6.69%
7.17%
7.31%
3.48%
2.24%
2.74%
6%
2.52%
0%
0%
1.23%
1.21%

Capfriendly seems to have the NHL estimating a 4.79% increase for 24/25 and a 5.14% for 25/26 (although unsure where they have those estimates from, haven’t looked into it)

Especially with inflation being what it has been in recent years, 5% increases seem on the pretty realistic side of projections.

I could see it slowing a bit if the players want to stop paying into escrow. Next couple seasons will be big bumps though for sure.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I’m not sure why you’d think that.

We have already seen salary cap increases of:

12.82%
14.32%
12.72%
.18%
4.58%
8.25%
-6.69%
7.17%
7.31%
3.48%
2.24%
2.74%
6%
2.52%
0%
0%
1.23%
1.21%

Capfriendly seems to have the NHL estimating a 4.79% increase for 24/25 and a 5.14% for 25/26 (although unsure where they have those estimates from, haven’t looked into it)

Especially with inflation being what it has been in recent years, 5% increases seem on the pretty realistic side of projections.

If the economy stabalizes in any meaningful way, 5% cap increases are imminent. Inflation over the last few years was 20-30% and the cap remained flat. As soon as everything evens out with wages, prices, cost of living etc... that 20-30% inflation will be reflected with in the cap. I'd expect 5+% cap inflation for the next 5-6 years. We've got all the inflation ongoing now to account for and all the inflation for the last 4 years, while the cap was flat.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Sec214

While I appreciate your vision of the salary cap, it is never going up 5% annually.

Sure it is.

Under the new CBA, once the players' escrow debt is repaid, the new formula for calculating the cap will come into effect.

Under the new formula, they will use the HRR from 2 years prior to calculate the cap for a season.

The formula is simple (this isn't the exact formula because some money is used to pay some player insurance costs, but it's close enough for our purposes):

• Total HRR/2 = Players' share of HRR
• Players' share of HRR/32 = Team share of HRR
• Team share x 115% = Salary cap

The projected revenue for 2022-23 was $5.7 billion (as announced by Bettman in December -- final number not yet known). Using the cap formula, the cap for 2024-25 should be $102.42 million. However, the new agreement also put a limit on the year-over-year increase to the cap at 5%.

This means, the cap will increase 5% per season for the foreseeable future until either it catches up to what it should be according to the cap formula or the league and PA agree to increase it even more to catch up to what it should be.

There will be a big cushion between what the cap "should" be and what it will be and it would take multiple years of stagnant growth or even shrinkage to eat away at that cushion. The only real risk to revenue declining is what will happen with the regional sports network deals in the US. One silver lining for the NHL on that front is the teams don't get as much from the regional deals as the teams in the NBA and MLB get.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I don't mind Nylander's 7/8 year contract if we were to acquire him. Much like Huberdeau's contract, I would rather pay a good amount of money for an elite player rather than paying out a lot of cap on people like Lucic, Coleman (I don't like his contract, even though he's a serviceable player).

By the time the new deal kicks in, we have Hanifin/Backlund likely gone, still unsure about Lindholm. We would just be paying out a lot of money for the top forwards, and little left to round out the roster. However, that does force us to use effective ELC players.

Treliving was a "wizard" when managing the cap, getting excellent RFA signings done. He was great at negotiating when the ball is in his court. However, that quickly became a double-edge sword when he started to make ridiculous signings like Neal, Brouwer, etc.

By the time the hypothetical Nylander deal starts, Markstrom would have 2 years left, Coleman 3, and Mangiapane 1. What will likely not happen is having Lindholm and Nylander on the same team when you look at the cap bind we are in, so pick your poison. Personally, I would like Nylander on this team since he has always been the #4 guy in Toronto, whether that is fair or not. I'd like to see him and Huberdeau together.

[traptor]

Wonder what everyone is comfortable to give up to acquire nylander.

If it's hanifin+small add sure, do that every day.

If the asking is coronato/wolf+2024 1st, how many are onboard for that.

Even a package like dube/mang+1st+zary/moirin?

Would really hurt me to move that much, but those are likely the asks.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by traptor

Are we in win now though?
We sold our top scorer from last season. We hired a rookie coach.

We're saving multiple spots for prospects and trying to get younger.

In Conroy's recent interview, Kerr asked Conroy if this team is a legitimate contender. Conroy paused, then said that this team is better than it showed last season.

All this doesn't make me think that Conroy thinks this is a win-now team.

I think most of that is driven by cap issues. They can’t afford everyone’s raises.

[Enoch Root]

We wouldn't be able to take Nylander without moving out similar salary. Or, if Lindholm doesn't sign, then use the assets acquired for Lindholm to get Nylander.

But again, bad idea as it makes for a flawed team structure (all wingers, no C)

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by traptor

Wonder what everyone is comfortable to give up to acquire nylander.

If it's hanifin+small add sure, do that every day.

If the asking is coronato/wolf+2024 1st, how many are onboard for that.

Even a package like dube/mang+1st+zary/moirin?

Would really hurt me to move that much, but those are likely the asks.

Not sure how many 8 year $10 to 11 million contracts you want to have on your roster?

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by getbak

Sure it is.

Under the new CBA, once the players' escrow debt is repaid, the new formula for calculating the cap will come into effect.

Under the new formula, they will use the HRR from 2 years prior to calculate the cap for a season.

The formula is simple (this isn't the exact formula because some money is used to pay some player insurance costs, but it's close enough for our purposes):

• Total HRR/2 = Players' share of HRR
• Players' share of HRR/32 = Team share of HRR
• Team share x 115% = Salary cap

The projected revenue for 2022-23 was $5.7 billion (as announced by Bettman in December -- final number not yet known). Using the cap formula, the cap for 2024-25 should be $102.42 million. However, the new agreement also put a limit on the year-over-year increase to the cap at 5%.

This means, the cap will increase 5% per season for the foreseeable future until either it catches up to what it should be according to the cap formula or the league and PA agree to increase it even more to catch up to what it should be.

There will be a big cushion between what the cap "should" be and what it will be and it would take multiple years of stagnant growth or even shrinkage to eat away at that cushion. The only real risk to revenue declining is what will happen with the regional sports network deals in the US. One silver lining for the NHL on that front is the teams don't get as much from the regional deals as the teams in the NBA and MLB get.

This is still a gate driven league and with Diamond Sports group bankruptcy, uncertainty in the economy I'm not sure how anyone could be comfortable predicting what is going to happen for the next decade.
NHL isn't really growing in the US as much as it needs to, next TV deal will have to be big and I'm not positive Sportsnet is making money on their current deal.
Money has to come from somewhere and that just leaves you and me to pay more per ticket, I certainly have a limit to what I'm wiling to pay new arena or not.
Average increase over last 15 years is 2.68%

[Erick Estrada]

If I was an owner or GM I don't think I would be operating on 5% annual growth for more than a few years at a time especially only a few years removed from a pandemic. Things can change fast.