[Rumour] Backlund leaning towards not re-signing with Flames

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Will he? What comparable would you use? 35 years old come next deadline and a soon to be UFA. Closest I could think of was the aforementioned Lars Eller and he returned a 2nd round pick three drafts away. Who would be the comparable that would return something more?

Pageau got a 1st+2nd+3rd a few years ago.

The Jets have traded 1sts+ for both Stastny and Hayes.

But of course you can't bank on teams being that stupid.


Then you can go back to 2012 for a funny one:

BUF gets a 1st (pick 21 that becomes Jankowski)

NAS gets Paul Gaustad and a 4th (pick 99 that becomes Saros).

So the most laughable overpayment in the history of the TDL (Gaustad career highs = 12 goals and 36 points) actually turned out brilliantly for NAS.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

Is everyone just quoting and re-quoting the same article posted by a guy with 700 twitter followers or is there something new/official?

Paraphrased translations that still leave lots of room for interpretation from a week old interview aren't good enough for you?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Pageau got a 1st+2nd+3rd a few years ago.

Not comparable at all. Pageau was 26, almost a full decade younger than Backlund would be at the next trade deadline. The Pageau trade also had conditions attached that saw it turn into a later 1st (26th) and a late 2nd (59th). Those picks turned into Ridley Greig (Ottawa) and Roni Hirvonen (Toronto).

The Jets have traded 1sts+ for both Stastny and Hayes.

Hayes is again not comparable. Was 26 years old and in his prime. Stastny is probably a little more comparable, but was 31 the first time the Jets acquired him and was still a consistent player. I would say the second time the Jets brought Stastny back is more comparable. The Golden Knights got Carl Dahlstrom (a 25 year old tweener depth defenseman) and a conditional 4th round pick (111th) that ended up with the Rangers and for Noah Laba.

I don't see any big payments happening for 35 year olds. Vegas got a "C' level prospect and a 4th round pick out of the deal, that they turned around and traded, which is a step down from a 2nd IMO.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Seems obvious to me.

Bunch of mercenary free agents indifferent to playing for Calgary?

Bunch of players committed to each other, the Flames org and Calgary?

Which is more likely to have success?

You really can find these people, they exist. They probably are not the current crop though.

Players who want to get paid are likely going to play at their best rather than tank their own value.

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Not comparable at all. Pageau was 26, almost a full decade younger than Backlund would be at the next trade deadline. The Pageau trade also had conditions attached that saw it turn into a later 1st (26th) and a late 2nd (59th). Those picks turned into Ridley Greig (Ottawa) and Roni Hirvonen (Toronto).



Hayes is again not comparable. Was 26 years old and in his prime. Stastny is probably a little more comparable, but was 31 the first time the Jets acquired him and was still a consistent player. I would say the second time the Jets brought Stastny back is more comparable. The Golden Knights got Carl Dahlstrom (a 25 year old tweener depth defenseman) and a conditional 4th round pick (111th) that ended up with the Rangers and for Noah Laba.

I don't see any big payments happening for 35 year olds. Vegas got a "C' level prospect and a 4th round pick out of the deal, that they turned around and traded, which is a step down from a 2nd IMO.

You are making the sample size so small its basically meaningless.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

You would have thought Toffoli would return more than what he did as well, but the market is what it is. With the tight cap, I don’t see much more than a 2nd.

Also though, don’t undervalue a 2nd.

The market is what it is, currently. At the trade deadline, buyers are willing to pay.

Backlund will return more than a 2nd

Also, don't under-estimate what the Flames got for Toffoli - Sharangovich and Suniev is a good return, certainly equivalent to a couple of 2nds at least (in a typical draft)

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

You are making the sample size so small its basically meaningless.

The best sample is probably ROR but I think Backlund will be most valuable at the deadline. If they trade him in the offseason it will be a crappier return because of the tight cap.

[Toonage]

At the TDL, if he's healthy I'll flat out guarantee Backlund gets a 1st. But it'll be a high 1st obviously and also wouldn't shock me if its a 2025 pick

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Will he? What comparable would you use? 35 years old come next deadline and a soon to be UFA. Closest I could think of was the aforementioned Lars Eller and he returned a 2nd round pick three drafts away. Who would be the comparable that would return something more?

Toffoli is a better comparable than Ellar.

Backlund had 56 points last year. Ellar has 54 points in his last 2 seasons combined, and has never put up 40 points. Backlund has Selke votes. They aren't anything alike.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

You are making the sample size so small its basically meaningless.

There just aren't that many 35 year olds traded and those that are generate really poor returns. I know Backlund is a favorite son but he's going to be a player that will play well down the lineup and be considered on his last legs. Now before you start arguing otherwise please consider the views of the majority of this board when it comes to players approaching 30. Backlund is approaching 35. Proper context matters which is why you can't compare Backlund to trades which involve 26 or 31 year olds. Compare apples to apples. The market for Backlund has been nonexistent based on reports, so why would you expect there to be a huge swing at the deadline?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

There just aren't that many 35 year olds traded and those that are generate really poor returns. I know Backlund is a favorite son but he's going to be a player that will play well down the lineup and be considered on his last legs. Now before you start arguing otherwise please consider the views of the majority of this board when it comes to players approaching 30. Backlund is approaching 35. Proper context matters which is why you can't compare Backlund to trades which involve 26 or 31 year olds. Compare apples to apples. The market for Backlund has been nonexistent based on reports, so why would you expect there to be a huge swing at the deadline?

If you are acquiring the guy as a rental, why does it matter if he's 19 or 35. He's just going to be on your team a few months. All you care about is those few months. You aren't trying to sign the guy for the next 8 years.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

There just aren't that many 35 year olds traded and those that are generate really poor returns. I know Backlund is a favorite son but he's going to be a player that will play well down the lineup and be considered on his last legs. Now before you start arguing otherwise please consider the views of the majority of this board when it comes to players approaching 30. Backlund is approaching 35. Proper context matters which is why you can't compare Backlund to trades which involve 26 or 31 year olds. Compare apples to apples. The market for Backlund has been nonexistent based on reports, so why would you expect there to be a huge swing at the deadline?

Believe it or not, the market is facotored by more than just a player's age.

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[Bingo]

Market is limited right now so who knows ... but Mikael Backlund, to a contender, is a much bigger add than Lars Eller.

A 0.5 PPG center who gets Selke votes is a huge add at playoff time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Market is limited right now so who knows ... but Mikael Backlund, to a contender, is a much bigger add than Lars Eller.

A 0.5 PPG center who gets Selke votes is a huge add at playoff time.

Imagine if the Avs added someone like Backlund as a rental last year. They have the same opportunity this year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Imagine if the Avs added someone like Backlund as a rental last year. They have the same opportunity this year.

Yeah, Backlund is not Gabriel Landeskog, but he goes a very long way to compensating for the loss of Landeskog for Colorado. God, they missed him last year.

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[Robbob]

Just going to put this here. It's from 2020, but still interesting to revisit. Especially, with some of the uncertainty of the other Flames players. I am hoping for something similar, where the Flames can grab some extra picks for an aging vet.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...ig-way-flames/

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Market is limited right now so who knows ... but Mikael Backlund, to a contender, is a much bigger add than Lars Eller.

A 0.5 PPG center who gets Selke votes is a huge add at playoff time.

If the Flames would have had Backlund on the 2023 TDL market they might of have gotten more than what Ellers got. BUT 32 year old Marcus Johanssen 13 goals and 28 pts in 60 games and a 1.1 M cap hit with the Caps got them a 3rd round pick

This year the potential TDL forwards are the same guys that are crowding the market for Backlund right now. They are currently playing out their UFA and have not been extended by their current teams.

These guys are in the same boat as Backlund and Lindholm ( and Hannifin)

These guys have the TDL as plan B. A lot signed their one year deal with that option available.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If the Flames would have had Backlund on the 2023 TDL market they might of have gotten more than what Ellers got. BUT 32 year old Marcus Johanssen 13 goals and 28 pts in 60 games and a 1.1 M cap hit with the Caps got them a 3rd round pick

This year the potential TDL forwards are the same guys that are crowding the market for Backlund right now. They are currently playing out their UFA and have not been extended by their current teams.

These guys are in the same boat as Backlund and Lindholm ( and Hannifin)

These guys have the TDL as plan B. A lot signed their one year deal with that option available.

A lot will be signed by their teams. You think Stamkos, Aho, Matthews, etc are going anywhere at the TDL? And you listed forwards. Backlund's value is that he's a great two way centre who also happens to be at a cheap cap hit. Of the centres, who is more attractive as a rental (and will be available)? Maybe Stephenson (who doesn't play for Washington, BTW). That's about it.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

These guys are in the same boat as Backlund and Lindholm ( and Hannifin)

Found a new spelling. I thought we'd seen every possibility.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

There just aren't that many 35 year olds traded and those that are generate really poor returns. I know Backlund is a favorite son but he's going to be a player that will play well down the lineup and be considered on his last legs. Now before you start arguing otherwise please consider the views of the majority of this board when it comes to players approaching 30. Backlund is approaching 35. Proper context matters which is why you can't compare Backlund to trades which involve 26 or 31 year olds. Compare apples to apples. The market for Backlund has been nonexistent based on reports, so why would you expect there to be a huge swing at the deadline?

And I largely agree with you but...hopefully because someone is desperate and wants to take a big swing.

If they're not then they're not, but its better to take the shot than lose a serviceable player for scraps.

[CFO]

Comes to a point you take whatever you can get.