[Rumour] Chris Johnston: Lindholm is interested in staying

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Oh yeah, math was off a little bit (must have added Hyman twice).

It’s not about comparing forwards, though, and we don’t have to call anyone dumb over it. It’s about the amount paid on the number of guys and how workable that is in a cap world (the Oilers number is about to jump up sharply, as I said, so not sure why we care how good McDavid is compared to Lindholm). We can go with the Stars if you think that’s a better comparison at 27.5, or the Leafs at 33.5, or the Islanders at 24.5, or the Rangers at 26.5, etc.

The point is that having Lindholm at $9M is not a difficult number to manage, especially when you look at the rest of the roster and where we’re overpaying vs. where we should expect more production.

He’s a first line center. He’s going to get paid like one. It’s going to be deserved and any cap difficulty from it in year one is almost certainly going to be gone by year 2 or 3.

There are a lot of first line centers

McDavid
Matthews
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Hughes
Point
Crosby
Zibanajed
Stutzle
Malkin
Miller
Tavares
Hischier
Larkin
Eichel
Benn
Barkov
Pavelski
Kopitar
Aho
Horvat
Scheifele
Cozens
Draisaitl

I guess the question is whether Lindholm puts the Flames on a Stanley Cup trajectory for me. If the answer is no get some pieces that help put the team on that trajectory. I would say he is the 15th to 20th best center in the league who will be in his 30’s for the contract. Unless he is Pavelski he will be worse rather than better throughout that contract. If he is starting as the 17th best center in the league right now, what is he in 5 years?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

There are a lot of first line centers

McDavid
Matthews
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Hughes
Point
Crosby
Zibanajed
Stutzle
Malkin
Miller
Tavares
Hischier
Larkin
Eichel
Benn
Barkov
Pavelski
Kopitar
Aho
Horvat
Scheifele
Cozens
Draisaitl

I guess the question is whether Lindholm puts the Flames on a Stanley Cup trajectory for me. If the answer is no get some pieces that help put the team on that trajectory. I would say he is the 15th to 20th best center in the league who will be in his 30’s for the contract. Unless he is Pavelski he will be worse rather than better throughout that contract. If he is starting as the 17th best center in the league right now, what is he in 5 years?

Most recent cup champs didn't exactly have the top end centers...in the cap era all teams are flawed. You could build a champion with goodish centers and great wingers, D, goaltending ect.

I know I know Eichel but check his career highs

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

There are a lot of first line centers

McDavid
Matthews
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Hughes
Point
Crosby
Zibanajed
Stutzle
Malkin
Miller
Tavares
Hischier
Larkin
Eichel
Benn
Barkov
Pavelski
Kopitar
Aho
Horvat
Scheifele
Cozens
Draisaitl

I guess the question is whether Lindholm puts the Flames on a Stanley Cup trajectory for me. If the answer is no get some pieces that help put the team on that trajectory. I would say he is the 15th to 20th best center in the league who will be in his 30’s for the contract. Unless he is Pavelski he will be worse rather than better throughout that contract. If he is starting as the 17th best center in the league right now, what is he in 5 years?

Well, if he gets paid $8.5M he’ll be the 17th highest paid center in the league, so… perfect? In 5 years he’ll probably also be paid right around where you rank him.

You’ve convinced me. This is a smart signing.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

The term and age don’t really matter because, by the time either do, the cap will have gone up and they’ll be easier to move.

The cap went up about 14% from when Monahan signed his contract and when the Flames had to burn a 1st to get rid of him. Monahan made 7.7% of the cap.

If the cap went up 14% in 6 years from when Lindholm potentially signs a 9 million dollar a year contract it will be 95.2 and Lindholm would be 9.5% of the cap. For him to be 7.7% the cap would have to be about 117 million, which it will not be. Contracts that are 8-10% of the cap are always hard to move, regardless of whether the cap goes up.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Well, if he gets paid $8.5M he’ll be the 17th highest paid center in the league, so… perfect? In 5 years he’ll probably also be paid right around where you rank him.

You’ve convinced me. This is a smart signing.

What if he is paid 8.8 though, then he is 12th, less convinced then? At 8.5 he is tied with 4 other guys for 14th too.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The cap went up about 14% from when Monahan signed his contract and when the Flames had to burn a 1st to get rid of him. Monahan made 7.7% of the cap.

If the cap went up 14% in 6 years from when Lindholm potentially signs a 9 million dollar a year contract it will be 95.2 and Lindholm would be 9.5% of the cap. For him to be 7.7% the cap would have to be about 117 million, which it will not be. Contracts that are 8-10% of the cap are always hard to move, regardless of whether the cap goes up.

Nashville just traded Johansen for vapour. It’ll be hard to let go of Lindholm for absolutely nothing in 7 years, but we’ll manage I’m sure.

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

What if he is paid 8.8 though, then he is 12th, less convinced then? At 8.5 he is tied with 4 other guys for 14th too.

Some guys will get raises. Not worried about it. He might even become the 30th highest paid center. Will you be happy with it then?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Most recent cup champs didn't exactly have the top end centers...in the cap era all teams are flawed. You could build a champion with goodish centers and great wingers, D, goaltending ect.

I know I know Eichel but check his career highs

I’d argue Mackinnon and Stamkos are upper end centres.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’d argue Mackinnon and Stamkos are upper end centres.

I would challenge this assertion, and ask you to provide proof that they are, in fact, buildings.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The cap went up about 14% from when Monahan signed his contract and when the Flames had to burn a 1st to get rid of him. Monahan made 7.7% of the cap.

If the cap went up 14% in 6 years from when Lindholm potentially signs a 9 million dollar a year contract it will be 95.2 and Lindholm would be 9.5% of the cap. For him to be 7.7% the cap would have to be about 117 million, which it will not be. Contracts that are 8-10% of the cap are always hard to move, regardless of whether the cap goes up.

You're ignoring the reason why the growth of the cap has been smaller in recent years.

If not for COVID, the cap would have continued to grow over the last few seasons. Without the COVID freeze, at even a modest 2.5% annual growth, the cap last year would have been around $87.5 million ($5 million higher than it was) and the Flames either wouldn't have needed to move Monahan's salary, or would have likely had more teams interested in acquiring him.


With the new method for calculating the cap once the players' escrow debt is repaid (which should start being used next year), the cap should see a steady and consistent 5% annual increase for the foreseeable future. If the cap rises 5% per year, it will be over $117 million by year 7 of Lindholm's next contract.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’d argue Mackinnon and Stamkos are upper end centres.

Brayden Point ain’t bad either, better than any center the Flames have had since Nieuwendyk.

[PeteMoss]

The Monahan trade was dopey and likely two flaws in the thinking
1) Panicking after Gaudreau left and giving Kadri big bucks which caused cap space to be needed (ownership or Treliving issue)
2) Under valuing a 1st round pick because you have an extra one. Teams tend to be looser with their draft picks when they have an extra one acquired in a trade.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Well, if he gets paid $8.5M he’ll be the 17th highest paid center in the league, so… perfect? In 5 years he’ll probably also be paid right around where you rank him.

You’ve convinced me. This is a smart signing.

Ya I don't understand the argument of not paying him 8.5M. That's borderline 2C money now. In 8 years it'll be low end 2C which he should still be.

The true top players are going to be getting 12-14M soon.

[GioforPM]

Lindholm to me seems like he will have a similary age trajectory as Backlund - so really consistent over a loong period of time, and sometimes with more production depending on what wingers he gets.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by DJones

Ya I don't understand the argument of not paying him 8.5M. That's borderline 2C money now. In 8 years it'll be low end 2C which he should still be.

The true top players are going to be getting 12-14M soon.

The issue for me is if you are not going to have the horses to actually compete don’t tie yourself down with term. The Flames are already in that situation with two other forwards. If they must compete I would rather have them overpay guys on single year contracts, leaving themselves the flexibility to sign a young player longterm like the Sabres and Sens have done with their young core. If they are going to have 35% of their current cap (which will become less over time) locked into 3 forwards it reduces the flexibility to sign a good young piece to a longterm deal.

The Flames have had enough bridge contracts for guys like Mangiapane, Dube, Yegor, Tkachuk that have been caused by the fact they do not have cap flexibility. Then the Flames end up paying them a premium like in the case of Mangiapane. I am convinced Mang would have taken 30 million over 8 years (3.75 million a year) after he scored 17 goals in 68 games in his first big league season. Instead we pay him 5.8 million a year now.

It would be a shame if a Coronato actually hit and they could not sign him to a 8 year contract because they lacked the financial ability to do so and instead sign him to some 3 year deal that works for their tight cap space.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

There are a lot of first line centers

McDavid
Matthews
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Hughes
Point
Crosby
Zibanajed
Stutzle
Malkin
Miller
Tavares
Hischier
Larkin
Eichel
Benn
Barkov
Pavelski
Kopitar
Aho
Horvat
Scheifele
Cozens
Draisaitl

I guess the question is whether Lindholm puts the Flames on a Stanley Cup trajectory for me. If the answer is no get some pieces that help put the team on that trajectory. I would say he is the 15th to 20th best center in the league who will be in his 30’s for the contract. Unless he is Pavelski he will be worse rather than better throughout that contract. If he is starting as the 17th best center in the league right now, what is he in 5 years?

Huberdeau, the season before last, set a record for most points by a LW. Any center that has chemistry with Huberdeau is going to create a top end offensive line. Even better if that center can play a shut down role at the same time.

Does Lindholm have chemistry with Huberdeau? Who knows. The Flames, due to Sutter's frustrating system, have no idea what they actually have in terms of offence. We know Toffoli could score by jamming the net, but not much else.

IMO Lindholm does appear to be getting better with age. He is getting more vision and was clearly a late bloomer.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Lindholm to me seems like he will have a similary age trajectory as Backlund - so really consistent over a loong period of time, and sometimes with more production depending on what wingers he gets.

He’s not the puck carrier Backlund is. Doesn’t control the play as much and he is reliant on a play making winger to distribute.

I think it’s dangerous to project players into their late 30s.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The cap went up about 14% from when Monahan signed his contract and when the Flames had to burn a 1st to get rid of him. Monahan made 7.7% of the cap.

If the cap went up 14% in 6 years from when Lindholm potentially signs a 9 million dollar a year contract it will be 95.2 and Lindholm would be 9.5% of the cap. For him to be 7.7% the cap would have to be about 117 million, which it will not be. Contracts that are 8-10% of the cap are always hard to move, regardless of whether the cap goes up.

Monahan got injured though and that is why he wasn't worth his deal. He also was not an old player who got injrued. Mid 20s and his career fell apart.

Lindholm isn't a top 5 center, but he is around top 10. I find it funny that anyone can just state he is 17th best in the league. Every good year or bad year a player has the list changes drastically. The Flames had nobody that was top 50 players in the league the year before Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Lindholm tore up the league. The next year these guys were all around top 20.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

He’s not the puck carrier Backlund is. Doesn’t control the play as much and he is reliant on a play making winger to distribute.

I think it’s dangerous to project players into their late 30s.

A shocking number of people are ok with going for longer term with Lindholm based entirely on some sort of superstitious belief that Swedish players last longer

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by saillias

A shocking number of people are ok with going for longer term with Lindholm based entirely on some sort of superstitious belief that Swedish players last longer

They’re the Volvos of hockey players!

[blankall]

Originally Posted by saillias

A shocking number of people are ok with going for longer term with Lindholm based entirely on some sort of superstitious belief that Swedish players last longer

It has more to do with the fact that he didn't hit his stride until 2018/19. He's also developing a great 2 way positional game.

The expectation would be another 4 years or so of top production. Then a few years of slightly less but still solid production. He doesn't seem like the type of player that's going to completely fall of a cliff as soon as he loses a stride.