The US currently has on the table in the senate a resolution to take any such action like this one being planned as justification for a article 5 NATO response, in the hopes to have Putin clearly understand this will definitely get a NATO response.
This isn't being taken lightly, and the threat is extremely real. With the Wagner / MoD conflict starting at the same time, things could unravel extremely quick.
Prigozhin has been extremely careful never to criticize Putin at any point, but specifically targeted the MoD and Shoigu. Even going so far as to state that Putin has been lied to by Shoigu.
This is a play against Shoigu, not Putin. I have no idea how well that play will turn out for him, but with the deadline set he was forced to do something, and best to do something while he has an army I guess.
It’s a play against Shoigu. But if Prigozhin wins the struggle, he opens the door for Putin to say he was misled by Shoigu and the MoD about the justification for the war and the state of Russia’s military. The disaster gets blamed on the people advising Putin, and he can de-escalate while saving face. Meanwhile, Prigozhin becomes the second most powerful man in Russia.
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I'd be shocked if Shoigu lost a power struggle as long as Putin is in power. Prigozhin is probably just desperate because he was likely going to lose a lot of power once Wagner recruits had to register with the Russian MoD in the coming weeks.
It’s a play against Shoigu. But if Prigozhin wins the struggle, he opens the door for Putin to say he was misled by Shoigu and the MoD about the justification for the war and the state of Russia’s military. The disaster gets blamed on the people advising Putin, and he can de-escalate while saving face. Meanwhile, Prigozhin becomes the second most powerful man in Russia.
And then Putin falls out a window a couple months later?
What is the significance of them heading to Belgorod? I know some partisan activity was happening there but I dont see how this correlates to any breakdown of Putin's govt.
Found this feed in one of those twitter threads.
Does anything look odd here?
Are there normally this many people walking down the streets chanting something at midnight?
And several police boats (5 visible right now) on the water.
Igor Sushko@igorsushko
�� Unconfirmed: 50km-long Wagner PMC column has reportedly managed to enter Russia through Rostov region. Shoigu appears to have failed.
I'd be shocked if Shoigu lost a power struggle as long as Putin is in power. Prigozhin is probably just desperate because he was likely going to lose a lot of power once Wagner recruits had to register with the Russian MoD in the coming weeks.
It’s a long-shot. But I guess we’ll find out in the next 48 hours if Russia’s internal security forces have become demoralized by the war.
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Originally Posted by fotze
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