2023 NHL Draft Thread

[Bingo]

Average Draft Ranking update ... now up to 20 rankings in the average, including Bader.

Top 5 locked in

1 Connor Bedard C 1.00
2 Adam Fantilli C 2.05
3 Matvei Michkov RW 3.55
4 Leo Carlsson C 3.80
5 Will Smith C 5.15

Next tier separating

6 Zach Benson F 7.15
7 Ryan Leonard C 9.35

Tier 3 (should all be gone by Cgy's pick)

8 Dalibor Dvorsky C 10.45
9 Oliver Moore C 11.65
10 David Reinbacher D 12.35
11 Axel Sandin Pellikka D 12.50

Flames Tier

Biggest change is Barlow in the mix in recent rankings.

12 Colby Barlow LW 15.10
13 Gabe Perreault RW 16.40
14 Matthew Wood F 16.85
15 Nate Danielson C 17.10
16 Eduard Sale RW 18.05
17 Brayden Yager C 19.75
18 Dmitri Simashev D 20.53
19 Quentin Musty LW 21.21
20 Samuel Honzek C 21.40
21 Andrew Cristall LW 21.40

Still a few names beyond 21 that could factor in including Gulyayev, Willander, Ritchie and But

[Tkachukwagon]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames Tier

12 Colby Barlow LW 15.10
13 Gabe Perreault RW 16.40
14 Matthew Wood F 16.85
15 Nate Danielson C 17.10
16 Eduard Sale RW 18.05
17 Brayden Yager C 19.75
18 Dmitri Simashev D 20.53
19 Quentin Musty LW 21.21
20 Samuel Honzek C 21.40
21 Andrew Cristall LW 21.40

Would be happy with almost everyone in this tier

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Average Draft Ranking update ... now up to 20 rankings in the average, including Bader.

Top 5 locked in

1 Connor Bedard C 1.00
2 Adam Fantilli C 2.05
3 Matvei Michkov RW 3.55
4 Leo Carlsson C 3.80
5 Will Smith C 5.15

Next tier separating

6 Zach Benson F 7.15
7 Ryan Leonard C 9.35

Tier 3 (should all be gone by Cgy's pick)

8 Dalibor Dvorsky C 10.45
9 Oliver Moore C 11.65
10 David Reinbacher D 12.35
11 Axel Sandin Pellikka D 12.50

Flames Tier

Biggest change is Barlow in the mix in recent rankings.

12 Colby Barlow LW 15.10
13 Gabe Perreault RW 16.40
14 Matthew Wood F 16.85
15 Nate Danielson C 17.10
16 Eduard Sale RW 18.05
17 Brayden Yager C 19.75
18 Dmitri Simashev D 20.53
19 Quentin Musty LW 21.21
20 Samuel Honzek C 21.40
21 Andrew Cristall LW 21.40

Still a few names beyond 21 that could factor in including Gulyayev, Willander, Ritchie and But

Only ones that don’t excited me that much would be Danielson, Honzek, and Sale (just based on apparent work ethic). But end of the day I trust the scouting and every guy in this tier has high end potential.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1670852956252405769

[Jiri Hrdina]

Boy I feel like I'm missing something with Benson.

[SuperMatt18]

I know there is the Russian threat with Michkov...but man taking Benson before him seems crazy to me.

He's a Bure/Ovechkin level talent...since when have those level of guys not come over to the NHL.

[CliffFletcher]

In the Athletic article where they talked to scouts and executives about the prospect rankings, they commented that NHL teams don’t have smaller guys ranked as highly as the public lists out there. Size still matters to ‘hockey guys.’ I expect players like Benson, Moore, and Cristall to be picked later than these lists have them ranked, and guys like Reinbacher, Barlow, and Honzek to go higher.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I know there is the Russian threat with Michkov...but man taking Benson before him seems crazy to me.

He's a Bure/Ovechkin level talent...since when have those level of guys not come over to the NHL.

It's a new dawn for Russian players, with the war etc.

There is likely some risk they never come over.

They will get picked, but teams will hate passing on a player they really, really like, like Smith, to select a potential unknown.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

In the Athletic article where they talked to scouts and executives about the prospect rankings, they commented that NHL teams don’t have smaller guys ranked as highly as the public lists out there. Size still matters to ‘hockey guys.’ I expect players like Benson, Moore, and Cristall to be picked later than these lists have them ranked, and guys like Reinbacher, Barlow, and Honzek to go higher.

Thanks for this. Happens every year.

[Spurs]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I know there is the Russian threat with Michkov...but man taking Benson before him seems crazy to me.

He's a Bure/Ovechkin level talent...since when have those level of guys not come over to the NHL.

When AO was drafted he came over the next season, with Michkov you are already waiting 3 (?) years before he comes over so already the situation is slightly different.

And as The Cobra says with the Ukraine war, things in Russia are quite different now than they were in the AO/Malkin days with it much more likely that Russia will feel emboldened to force a player to stay than they were in the past. Even when Malkin came there were stories about how he had to be smuggled out, can't remember the accuracy of them so it could have just been made-up rumours, so I think there are legit concerns for an NHL team.

I would still take him 4th if it was up to me, but easy for me to say with no skin in the game. For an NHL team to have a top 5 pick not even come over, even if the risk is small could have a massive impact for a team.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I know there is the Russian threat with Michkov...but man taking Benson before him seems crazy to me.

He's a Bure/Ovechkin level talent...since when have those level of guys not come over to the NHL.

There's also the fact he's for sure not playing in North America next year - he committed to Russia. For PR reasons teams probably want an aultra high draft pick to at least be a possibility to make the 2023-24 roster.

[Flamesfan05]

All I know is Michkov going to fall to us but we’ll pass on him and trade down instead for an extra 3rd pick

That’s how we like to do thingss

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

In the Athletic article where they talked to scouts and executives about the prospect rankings, they commented that NHL teams don’t have smaller guys ranked as highly as the public lists out there. Size still matters to ‘hockey guys.’ I expect players like Benson, Moore, and Cristall to be picked later than these lists have them ranked, and guys like Reinbacher, Barlow, and Honzek to go higher.

I think traditional nhl guys are surprisingly right with size here. Sure some small guys have been able to be up there but they’re very limited in taking over a game. Sure anyone can list out exceptions such as Point but generally speaking even excellent small guys like Gaudreau are leaned on in the playoffs. So I see why most are pushed down a bit.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

All I know is Michkov going to fall to us but we’ll pass on him and trade down instead for an extra 3rd pick

That’s how we like to do thingss

[SuperMatt18]

I get taking Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and Smith over him...but IMO the gap between Michkov and the next range is big enough even if you have to wait 2-3 years. If you're drafting top 5 you're probably not a contender soon anyways.

His draft year NHLe is in line with guys like McDavid, Matthews, Crosby, etc. If he falls below 5 I'd be trying to move whatever I could to move up to 6 and take him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I get taking Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and Smith over him...but IMO the gap between Michkov and the next range is big enough even if you have to wait 2-3 years. If you're drafting top 5 you're probably not a contender soon anyways.

His draft year NHLe is in line with guys like McDavid, Matthews, Crosby, etc. If he falls below 5 I'd be trying to move whatever I could to move up to 6 and take him.

What are the signing rules for a guy like that?

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

All I know is Michkov going to fall to us but we’ll pass on him and trade down instead for an extra 3rd pick

That’s how we like to do thingss

Have the Flames done this before?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Have the Flames done this before?

Teravainen >Jankowsji

[Tbull8]

Take it for what it is but cmpdave on Twitter said Wood is their guy if he’s there at 16

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

Take it for what it is but cmpdave on Twitter said Wood is their guy if he’s there at 16

I'd be really happy with that.