[Rumour] Chris Johnston: Lindholm is interested in staying

[Mindtravellee]

Would PLD be a first line center option with Hub? Could we end up next positive swapping Lindholm for PLD (assuming contract in place)?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by getbak

League minimum will still be $775,000.


Under the new CBA, the cap can only rise $1 million per season until the players' escrow debt is paid off. After that, the new formula will kick in, which is to take the final HRR from 2 years prior, divide that number in half to get the players' share, divide that by 32 to get the per team "midpoint", then add 15% to calculate the cap and subtract 15% to get the floor.

For example, according to Bettman, league revenue in 2021-22 was $5.2 billion. Using that formula, next year's cap should be $93.4 million... but it will only be $83.5 million because the players' debt isn't fully paid off.

Also, the new CBA puts a limit on the year-over-year growth of the cap at 5%. This means it will take a few more years for the cap to catch up to the calculated amount and we can safely assume the cap will increase 5% per year for the foreseeable future after next season.


Unless the league and PA come to a last minute compromise, next year's cap will be $83.5. Then, if we assume 5% annual growth for the next two seasons, the 2024-25 cap will be $87.675 million and the 2025-26 cap will be $92.06 million.

Getback is so underrated here. Love his knowledge and additions to the site.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Mindtravellee

Would PLD be a first line center option with Hub? Could we end up next positive swapping Lindholm for PLD (assuming contract in place)?

PLD would be a great fit here. It’s a matter of IF he wants to be here, which is doubtful. He’s forced the hand of both clubs he’s been on. He has a specific destination he wants to play in and I can almost guarantee it’s not Calgary.

Otherwise, in a perfect world, yes. Dubois is the guy I’d be targeting too, as I’d much rather offer him the 8 years where it would be from age 25-33.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Mindtravellee

Would PLD be a first line center option with Hub? Could we end up next positive swapping Lindholm for PLD (assuming contract in place)?

And likely zero chance Lindholm signs with the Jets.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

And likely zero chance Lindholm signs with the Jets.

Yup, it would be dumb trade for both teams.

[Badgers Nose]

I think the only possible outcome is Lindy gets traded.

Saying he’s open to it sounds like curated words from his agent. It means nothing. Of course he is open to money.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Do you ask Sec this? Why would I reveal that? Believe it or not, doesn't matter to me.

Because Sec has shown his sources to be real and reliable. I don’t recall the same from you.

[FurnaceFace]

Originally Posted by Sec214

Wanting to be here at Market Price vs Wanting to be here Overpaid are two different things..

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I don't know what you are hearing but that is not the impression I have been given.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I am hearing both sides want to get a fair deal done but like any negotiation there is a bit of a gap, I am hearing 1M/yr

My view is you’re both saying the same thing. 1M gap of 8.x vs 9.x could be interpreted as market vs overpaid and a fair deal to the player side could be viewed as an overpay on the team side.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by getbak

League minimum will still be $775,000.


Under the new CBA, the cap can only rise $1 million per season until the players' escrow debt is paid off. After that, the new formula will kick in, which is to take the final HRR from 2 years prior, divide that number in half to get the players' share, divide that by 32 to get the per team "midpoint", then add 15% to calculate the cap and subtract 15% to get the floor.

For example, according to Bettman, league revenue in 2021-22 was $5.2 billion. Using that formula, next year's cap should be $93.4 million... but it will only be $83.5 million because the players' debt isn't fully paid off.

Also, the new CBA puts a limit on the year-over-year growth of the cap at 5%. This means it will take a few more years for the cap to catch up to the calculated amount and we can safely assume the cap will increase 5% per year for the foreseeable future after next season.


Unless the league and PA come to a last minute compromise, next year's cap will be $83.5. Then, if we assume 5% annual growth for the next two seasons, the 2024-25 cap will be $87.675 million and the 2025-26 cap will be $92.06 million.

Thank you for this.

And knowing this, I think the strategy should be to get guys signed to long term deals. Kadri is expensive at $7M, but if the cap goes up by 5% per year, it looks a lot less painful in 3 years.

$7M is 8.4% of next year's cap, then 8.0% in 24/25, then 7.6% in 25/26 (that is the equivalent of $6.25M this year)

The same declining ratios would apply for Lindholm (and everyone else, obviously). The contracts that look expensive now, are going to look good in a few years. We are already starting to see some players take short term deals so that they can get paid big in 2 or 3 years, and I'll bet we see more and more players doing this.

Get in front of it and sign Lindholm right now.

[robertsfanatic]

if Lindy comes in at $9 and you can get Hanifin in the $6's then why not hang onto both?

their total cap hit should hopefully be no more than $16 combined

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Thank you for this.

And knowing this, I think the strategy should be to get guys signed to long term deals. Kadri is expensive at $7M, but if the cap goes up by 5% per year, it looks a lot less painful in 3 years.

$7M is 8.4% of next year's cap, then 8.0% in 24/25, then 7.6% in 25/26 (that is the equivalent of $6.25M this year)

The same declining ratios would apply for Lindholm (and everyone else, obviously). The contracts that look expensive now, are going to look good in a few years. We are already starting to see some players take short term deals so that they can get paid big in 2 or 3 years, and I'll bet we see more and more players doing this.

Get in front of it and sign Lindholm right now.

That’s why I utilize cap $’s by % of cap. Which, as you said, makes it easier to stomach the Kadri deal.

[bluejays]

Naa. No matter how you slice it Kadri and Coleman were never pieces to build around to deserve a long term contract at their ages. It’s amazing how many people are willing to offer Lindholm a crazy value contract on his current value without looking at where we are right now, what value he’ll have in the future, and what players we already have locked up. Past lessons are never heeded it seems. More successful teams have an honest dialogue to where they are and what value a guy has into future years. Not cutting him loose speaks volumes to where they see themselves and or their abilities to acquire better players in the future. This will be a terrible mistake to offer him anything more than four years. If he’s looking for 8, fair - trade him. No biggie. He’s reached his peak and we’re giving him peak money for eight years? What craziness is that?

[activeStick]

Yeah, it comes down to the projections for Lindholm that people give. He's 28 at the start of the season, so do you project him out to have at least 5 more productive years based on his history here to 33? Or will his production drop down by 50% or more by then? The last 2-3 years in a 7-8 year deal being risky is just the cost of signing UFAs as the majority of UFA deals around this age are going to look bad.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Thank you for this.

And knowing this, I think the strategy should be to get guys signed to long term deals. Kadri is expensive at $7M, but if the cap goes up by 5% per year, it looks a lot less painful in 3 years.

$7M is 8.4% of next year's cap, then 8.0% in 24/25, then 7.6% in 25/26 (that is the equivalent of $6.25M this year)

The same declining ratios would apply for Lindholm (and everyone else, obviously). The contracts that look expensive now, are going to look good in a few years. We are already starting to see some players take short term deals so that they can get paid big in 2 or 3 years, and I'll bet we see more and more players doing this.

Get in front of it and sign Lindholm right now.

Yup, and the Flames have the advantage of all these deals expiring next season, so they have one more "cheap" year when the cap is still being held down and any new deals will kick in after the cap has a 5% jump (not guaranteed, but barring another catastrophe, very likely).

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Yeah, it comes down to the projections for Lindholm that people give. He's 28 at the start of the season, so do you project him out to have at least 5 more productive years based on his history here to 33? Or will his production drop down by 50% or more by then? The last 2-3 years in a 7-8 year deal being risky is just the cost of signing UFAs as the majority of UFA deals around this age are going to look bad.

Yeah. I still don’t think we should be entertaining more of those give. We’ve already made those mistakes and are stuck with them. Fans just never learn. I’d be fine with one of them (him specifically) if we didn’t already have four or so strapped but the reality is we do. And soon enough if any of the younger guys need to be paid we get to the position of lowballing and pissing them off. We have an opportunity to get great assets back and get younger here. Not sure why were aren’t taking it when we aren’t going anywhere notable in the next couple years. Sounds like Murray likes the circle jerk up there surrounded by yes men who say this team is on track for greatness.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bluejays

...We have an opportunity to get great assets back and get younger here. Not sure why were aren’t taking it when we aren’t going anywhere notable in the next couple years.

The reason why is that clearly not everyone shares your opinion of the team. You want to pretend that this bleak outlook is certain, but the fact of the matter is that this is still a very good roster that substantially underacheived last season. I really don't think any of us has any idea how good this team could be. There is so much we just don't know heading into the next season, which I find pretty exciting.


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[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Fans just never learn.

Totally the fans fault. Not you as a fan though, those pesky other fans!

[PeteMoss]

With older guys - unless they are elite - you just need to build out the contract with the understanding you are going to buy it out at some point.

You can buyout Coleman after this year or next and $3.3M against the cap for the length of it.

Kadri and Weegar are both easy buyout for the last 2-3 years of their deals if needed.

Huberdeau is the one you can't really escape. Markstrom has signing bonuses as well so not a ton of savings there (which is I why I would trade him now if you can).

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Huberdeau is the one you can't really escape. Markstrom has signing bonuses as well so not a ton of savings there (which is I why I would trade him now if you can).

Coming off of a bad year is absolutely the worst time to trade Markstrom. I think you only move him this offseason if there are unresolvable cap constraints, but he will almost certainly be a more valuable commodity after a better year. I can't see how he will be anywhere near as bad in 2023-24.

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[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Good.

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I'm not sure this is "good".

Interested in staying basically means if the price is right, I'll consider it, from my viewpoint. Johnny was probably saying the exact same thing all along and reeks of a guy who only wants to stay if the Flames are outbidding everyone. This isn't the type of attitude that you want back in the room IMHO.

The Flames haven't gotten over the hump with a lot of these impending UFAs next year, so why would the expectation be that they are going to get better now? Conroy needs to be very cautious going more than 4-5 years with players like Lindholm.

If Lindholm's expectation is top dollar and term as the deciding factor, which can easily lead to another 11th hour disappointment, or being unable to maximize the asset, you need to get him out of here asap.