[Rumour] LeBrun: All signs point to Hanifin not wanting to extend with Flames

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I know first round picks are exciting. Especially in this draft. But I don’t think those are what the Flames will be targeting in trades for Hanifin or Lindholm. I think they’ll be targeting 19-24 year old players and prospects with team control. They want to compete this coming season, and will want players back who can help them now and in the next two seasons, not assets that are 3-5 seasons away from playing.

It's not just the excitement of extra 1st round picks, it's that both Reinbacher and Pellikka are playing in men's leagues already in Europe so conceivably they aren't that far away from knocking on the door here in Calgary. Especially with this new appreciation for giving opportunities to young guys as GM and HC have been saying.

I still hope that's the route they take, but if there's a high end prospect in the 19-24 age range that another team is happy to part with, and that fits with what we need then I wouldn't blame Conroy for doing that too.

We have a strong top 4 already, without a true #1, so personally I'd rather take the extra 1st and take a swing at landing a future franchise D that will be under team control for the foreseeable future.

[CroFlames]

Vegas is back in the Cup Final (and on the cusp of winning) because of ruthless asset management.

The Flames don't need to treat players like ####, but they absolutely need to be protecting themselves and restocking.

You can't always rely on a homerun UFA signing like Tanev to cancel an absolute gaffe of letting Brodie walk.

And if you are gonna trade 1sts, it better NOT be for Hamonic-level players.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It all depends considering this club is already up against the cap and want to make room for their current prospects.

Look at the current lineup

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Toffoli
Mangiapane-Kadri-Dube
Coleman-Backlund-?
Duehr-Ruzicka-?

Hanifin-Andersson
Kylington-Weegar
Zadorov-Tanev

Markstrom
Vladar/Wolf

There are maybe 2 spots up for grabs likely Pelletier gets a spot so one more spot for a prospect. If they move Hanifin they can keep Stetcher or they would want a Dman back. Moving Lindholm opens a hole in the middle but there are not a lot of spots for wingers.

If they get players back for Lindholm/Hanifin I think they will need to move other assets for futures. They need to create the space for younger players to get a shot.

I expect one of Lindholm or Backlund will be gone. Hard to imagine signing them both to extensions and having three centers age 29-35 locked up long-term.

So assuming one of them is moved, there will be room to bring in a Mittlestadt/Luostarinen/Berggren.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I know first round picks are exciting. Especially in this draft. But I don’t think those are what the Flames will be targeting in trades for Hanifin or Lindholm. I think they’ll be targeting 19-24 year old players and prospects with team control. They want to compete this coming season, and will want players back who can help them now and in the next two seasons, not assets that are 3-5 seasons away from playing.

What teams are trading proven 19-24-year-old cost-controlled players for a pending UFA? I find these deals are less common in the cap world.

Going that route, I think the Flames get 60 cents on the dollar at best.

At least draft picks can be leveraged for either more at-bats for the amateur scouting team, or for trade capital.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

What teams are trading proven 19-24-year-old cost-controlled players for a pending UFA? I find these deals are less common in the cap world.

Going that route, I think the Flames get 60 cents on the dollar at best.

At least draft picks can be leveraged for either more at-bats for the amateur scouting team, or for trade capital.

I’m assuming Hanifin and Lindholm will be dealt to teams that are confident they can sign an extension. If not, the Flames will get 60 cents on the dollar no matter what kind of assets they’re asking for.

[stemit14]

At this point, I would be happy getting a first round pick in the teens of this draft for Hanifin or Lindholm if they are not willing to sign an extension with the flames or not willing to do a sign-and-trade to up their value.


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[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by stemit14

At this point, I would be happy getting a first round pick in the teens of this draft for Hanifin or Lindholm if they are not willing to sign an extension with the flames or not willing to do a sign-and-trade to up their value.


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Sign and trades are not possible until after July 1 so if the deal is done at the draft it can only be with tampering that the player/agent are willing to extend in that market at a certain price point.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Sign and trades are not possible until after July 1 so if the deal is done at the draft it can only be with tampering that the player/agent are willing to extend in that market at a certain price point.

You don't need a sign and trade with these guys though. They have a year left so whoever gets them can do the 8 year extension. and I don't think there's any tampering if a team gets Calgary's permission to talk extension pre-trade, like Vegas with Stone.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Teams asking for either player are absolutely going to do everything in their power to re-sign them. There's no such thing as trading players for the "8 year" value, that was thrown out the window from the last CBA. The buyer has to buy them as is and then make the extension. So, the buyer will have to pay the "8 year" value and then work on the extension themselves.

Calgary shouldn't be trading anyone if they aren't getting maximum value, even if it's only a year left on their current deal.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Teams asking for either player are absolutely going to do everything in their power to re-sign them. There's no such thing as trading players for the "8 year" value, that was thrown out the window from the last CBA. The buyer has to buy them as is and then make the extension. So, the buyer will have to pay the "8 year" value and then work on the extension themselves.

Calgary shouldn't be trading anyone if they aren't getting maximum value, even if it's only a year left on their current deal.

This is where it can be tough for Calgary to get maximum value. It’s possible these players will return more picks/prospects at the trade deadline than they will at this draft. Teams about to step up to the podium to make a pick want to make that selection. They want to get their fans excited about a young new prospect that will be on their team for years. It’s less exciting for then to remain sitting and tell their fans that they have a good player for one year while Calgary goes up and makes their pick.

Alternatively, at the trade deadline, teams give away first round picks way more readily… especially because they know those picks will be in the back half of the first round and their fans will be excited to get a guy who makes their team so much better for a cup run. At that point, they’ll give away picks and prospects for Selke level centres and top 2/3 defencemen.

The problem is that Conroy cannot and (from what he has said) will not let it get to the trade deadline to decide what happens with these guys. Doesn’t that mean any teams dealing with Conroy already know that the pressure is on him to make the move? The draft could come and go without him trading any of these guys or having them signed because those teams know they could come to him in August and he will be “desperate” to trade these guys. All of a sudden, it’s a conditional first round pick in 2024 and a B-level prospect as the return for Lindholm. Same for Hanifin.


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[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Vegas is back in the Cup Final (and on the cusp of winning) because of ruthless asset management.

The Flames don't need to treat players like ####, but they absolutely need to be protecting themselves and restocking.

You can't always rely on a homerun UFA signing like Tanev to cancel an absolute gaffe of letting Brodie walk.

And if you are gonna trade 1sts, it better NOT be for Hamonic-level players.

Also helps that they got like 10 bazillion draft picks for ambushing the rest of the league with an expansion draft and have a top 3 market for NTC and UFA privilege. Not sure that's something the Flames are in a position to replicate.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by stemit14

This is where it can be tough for Calgary to get maximum value. It’s possible these players will return more picks/prospects at the trade deadline than they will at this draft. Teams about to step up to the podium to make a pick want to make that selection. They want to get their fans excited about a young new prospect that will be on their team for years. It’s less exciting for then to remain sitting and tell their fans that they have a good player for one year while Calgary goes up and makes their pick.

Alternatively, at the trade deadline, teams give away first round picks way more readily… especially because they know those picks will be in the back half of the first round and their fans will be excited to get a guy who makes their team so much better for a cup run. At that point, they’ll give away picks and prospects for Selke level centres and top 2/3 defencemen.

The problem is that Conroy cannot and (from what he has said) will not let it get to the trade deadline to decide what happens with these guys. Doesn’t that mean any teams dealing with Conroy already know that the pressure is on him to make the move? The draft could come and go without him trading any of these guys or having them signed because those teams know they could come to him in August and he will be “desperate” to trade these guys. All of a sudden, it’s a conditional first round pick in 2024 and a B-level prospect as the return for Lindholm. Same for Hanifin.


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Very valid points. But, I do say that Calgary has the advantage and here's why:

It's already been pointed out that the UFA market this year is not that great at all. Your best options for a D? You're looking at Orlov, who is already 31 and likely wants a Kadri-like retirement contract. He's got his cup. Has a couple more years in him and then will probably start regressing.

Your best option for a C? ROR, Domi? I guess they are decent options, but not good enough.

It won't be shocking to me if either Hanifin or Lindholm are dealt, and we are shocked at how well Conroy does. Just look at Detroit as an example, they could use either one of these players and have the draft capital and the cap space to make such a move. I wouldn't be surprised if they are one of the ones that are calling about either player, namely Hanifin as I don't know if Lindholm has fielded any offers since Conroy has talked to him.

It's better to trade a pick you already know the position of, rather than future ones. That being said, it would advantageous of us to try and grab first round picks for this year since multiple teams have multiple picks. I'm looking at Detroit and St. Louis as prime examples of that, two teams that are wanting to see playoff action again.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Teams asking for either player are absolutely going to do everything in their power to re-sign them. There's no such thing as trading players for the "8 year" value, that was thrown out the window from the last CBA. The buyer has to buy them as is and then make the extension. So, the buyer will have to pay the "8 year" value and then work on the extension themselves.

Calgary shouldn't be trading anyone if they aren't getting maximum value, even if it's only a year left on their current deal.

So they walk them to UFA?

At the end of the day, if these players don’s sign, Calgary needs to take what they get get as the best value. And right now, we have no idea what that is.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Very valid points. But, I do say that Calgary has the advantage and here's why:

It's already been pointed out that the UFA market this year is not that great at all. Your best options for a D? You're looking at Orlov, who is already 31 and likely wants a Kadri-like retirement contract. He's got his cup. Has a couple more years in him and then will probably start regressing.

Your best option for a C? ROR, Domi? I guess they are decent options, but not good enough.

It won't be shocking to me if either Hanifin or Lindholm are dealt, and we are shocked at how well Conroy does. Just look at Detroit as an example, they could use either one of these players and have the draft capital and the cap space to make such a move. I wouldn't be surprised if they are one of the ones that are calling about either player, namely Hanifin as I don't know if Lindholm has fielded any offers since Conroy has talked to him.

It's better to trade a pick you already know the position of, rather than future ones. That being said, it would advantageous of us to try and grab first round picks for this year since multiple teams have multiple picks. I'm looking at Detroit and St. Louis as prime examples of that, two teams that are wanting to see playoff action again.

That’s true. The UFA class is weak and there are teams that could definitely use Hanifin or Lindholm. I also have thought teams like Detroit, Buffalo and St.Louis make sense because they have the draft capital to get it done.

However, those teams could also wait till after the draft if they want to. They could always make their picks in 2023 and offer a conditional 2024 first round pick for Lindholm instead.

I would really like for the trades to be made at this draft if they can get picks in the top 20 but I fear the obvious thing for any teams to do is to make their offers for Lindholm or Hanifin in August.

It would not surprise me if the “bidding war” for players like Lindholm or Hanifin comes from teams picking outside the top 20 in this draft though. For example, Colorado and Carolina. At that point, if the 2023 pick is in the 25 to 32 overall range, I hope it comes with a really good young player like Jarvis or Newhook+.


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[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Ashes

It's not just the excitement of extra 1st round picks, it's that both Reinbacher and Pellikka are playing in men's leagues already in Europe so conceivably they aren't that far away from knocking on the door here in Calgary. Especially with this new appreciation for giving opportunities to young guys as GM and HC have been saying.

I still hope that's the route they take, but if there's a high end prospect in the 19-24 age range that another team is happy to part with, and that fits with what we need then I wouldn't blame Conroy for doing that too.

We have a strong top 4 already, without a true #1, so personally I'd rather take the extra 1st and take a swing at landing a future franchise D that will be under team control for the foreseeable future.

This group’s real weakness is the lack of any contributors under 25.

If I’m Conroy, I’m looking to trade Hanifin for a return that either includes a top-15 pick this year or gives me the assets to get into the top-10.

An RFA might be ready sooner, but that accelerates the pressure on Conroy.

Patience is a virtue here - adding some noteworthy teenagers in your first summer buys you runway.

That or I’m asking Lindholm if he’d stay for seven or eight years IF we did a Hanifin/Nylander sign and trade swap.

Huberdeau/Lindholm/Nylander is a first line and a half.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Keeping Hanifin is more about if he is replaceable from with in. Looking at the prospect pool, do we see a Hanifin replacement in one of Poirier, Kuznetsov, or Solovyov? I don’t see one which means they need to keep Hanifin in the fold. Unless someone is going to include a possible replacement in the deal - and why would they? - you don’t trade the player unless he has said he has no interest in signing another contract.

That or there are lots of moving parts this summer.

Not that it would be this move. But in another thread the talk about Newhook, Girard and 1st for Lindholm.

If you do that trade you could then do a deal that moves out Hanifin.

Doubt it would happen but in theory Lindholm and Hanifin out.
Nylander, Newhook, Girard, and Dragicevic (drafted with avs pick) in.

Either way you cannot over pay or over extend Hanifin just based on existing organizational depth. If he wants more dollars and/or term than you are willing to pay than you have to trade him and find a replacement elsewhere.

[Ashes]

Just spitballing, New York Rangers hardly ever seem to have a problem enticing players to sign and/or stay there long term, and Lindholm's cap hit next season would help with their competitive window. Assuming the Rangers are easily enough able to get Lindholm to sign an extension, how about:

Lindholm
2nd Round Pick

for

Kaapo Kakko
1st (23rd Overall)
Braden Schneider


Both Kakko and Schneider are RFA's next season which keeps them under team control, and at 23rd overall the Flames should still have a bunch of good options on the board, including any players that inevitably slip down.

Schneider is also a RD, which would help to absorb the loss of Tanev if we end up trading him. I feel like since Kaako and Schneider were both 1st rounders, it seems fair value to give up a second along with Lindholm to even things out.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think there is some serious undervaluing going on.


Lindholm @ 4.85 is an amazing contract. A #1 centre, and a Selke-level one at that. There aren't many better value deals out there. Imagine if the Flames retain 50% on top of that. What contender wouldn't be able to add him then? They would pay through the nose for Lindholm.


Hanifin at 4.95 - that's great value as well for a top-pairing minute-muncher. I wonder what he would be worth at 50% to a contender too.


I do think that Backlund and Lindolm are essentially a package deal - if Lindholm leaves, then Backlund will want to leave to as it basically signals that the Flames are not going to be contending for the cup. If the Flames re-sign Lindholm, Backlund at least finishes the year in Calgary because it signals that this team is trying to compete, and having centre depth - especially two-way centre depth that you can line-match more easily - is huge come playoff time. Having to face Edmonton or Colorado isn't as scary when your centres are all capable shut-down types with good offensive ability down to your 3rd line. The likelihood that McDavid or MacKinnon is out against a line that is terrible defensively will be almost impossible.



I would rather have Tanev traded than Hanifin right now. Tanev is older and is once again experiencing some injuries. I would rather the Flames re-sign Hanifin and trade Tanev. I love Tanev, but it just makes more sense right now IMO. Once again, the caveat being how much is everyone asking for on their new deals.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by shutout

That or there are lots of moving parts this summer.

Not that it would be this move. But in another thread the talk about Newhook, Girard and 1st for Lindholm.

If you do that trade you could then do a deal that moves out Hanifin.

Doubt it would happen but in theory Lindholm and Hanifin out.
Nylander, Newhook, Girard, and Dragicevic (drafted with avs pick) in.

Either way you cannot over pay or over extend Hanifin just based on existing organizational depth. If he wants more dollars and/or term than you are willing to pay than you have to trade him and find a replacement elsewhere.

Hanifin is the guy you want to overpay the least on this blue line.

He’s not an effective penalty killer at all - his short handed Shots against per 60 (53.9) is the worst on the team by a country mile.

He’s the 5th most effective D at generating offense 5v5 (51.38). Going by Goals For/60, he’s 4th (2.90)

His 2.77 goals against/60 and 29.35 Shots Against at 5v5 are last among all the regular D, with only Stecher and Connor “Worst Defenseman in Hockey” Mackey behind him.

None of this is to say he isn’t a quality player, but for a guy who’s going to be looking for a bigger contract than Weegar, I need him to be better than Weegar.

And he’s not. He’s not even close.

[SuperMatt18]

Honestly they should shop all of Hanifin, Toffoli, and Lindholm with 50% retention.

Opens up the market a ton for them and it's only one year of retention.