Russia invades Ukraine

[Huntingwhale]

This isn't good and might be one of, if not the worst thing russia has done so far. The 2 refugees living with us are freaking out. They are both from Nova Kakhovka. They say this is their biggest nightmare since that dam was built, russia attacking it like this. Now we get to watch it all play out.

#### russia so much.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

This isn't good for folks on the southern bank in Kherson. The Russians have maintained control over the dam and were draining the reservoir over the last few months.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1665909781008203776

Outside of nukes, this is the worst action available to Putin.

This is monumental development, Russia is effectively saying #### Crimea, and this is also the main water source for the ZPP. There are major rumblings that ZPP now has no effective way to cool. Expect massive amounts of civilian casualties as well.

[nik-]

animals

[burn_this_city]

Apparently the Russians stopped managing the seasonal water flows and the dam was overflowing and spilling over the top for the last few weeks. This is after it was reported the sluice gates were opened draining it to historic lows back in February.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1665918517185478659

[Street Pharmacist]

I don't see Ukraine doing this, but militarily this effectively hurts Russia more, no? The only thing I could see as the purpose of this would be making the Ukraine advance across the Dnieper. But it would also wash away their defenses and then the water would reverse l recede and allow for an easy advance. I don't get this

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I don't see Ukraine doing this, but militarily this effectively hurts Russia more, no? The only thing I could see as the purpose of this would be making the Ukraine advance across the Dnieper. But it would also wash away their defenses and then the water would reverse l recede and allow for an easy advance. I don't get this

We don't get them bombing schools, hospitals and apartment buildings either

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by nik-

We don't get them bombing schools, hospitals and apartment buildings either

As sadistic and gross as that is, it's designed to wear out the population with no real downside to Russia. This seems to significantly harm Russia's defenses (at least to me who has little military understanding)

[nik-]

This just feels like the same thing at a greater volume. If they feel the defenses won't matter, then why not.

[GGG]

Not the first time Russia blew up this particular Dam as they retreated.

20-100k killed last time.

[Sluggo]

WTH, this is some James Bond villain ####

[FlamesAddiction]

I can't say I am surprised that they would do something like this. It's what they have always done. If they can't win the battles, they will make the civilians pay for it.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I don't see Ukraine doing this, but militarily this effectively hurts Russia more, no? The only thing I could see as the purpose of this would be making the Ukraine advance across the Dnieper. But it would also wash away their defenses and then the water would reverse l recede and allow for an easy advance. I don't get this

It massively limits where Ukraine can attack. frees up Russian troops to be withdrawn from the Kherson and Crimea area to reinforce the Donbass

[GGG]

I still question whether this is blowing or overfilling until it fails outcome isn’t really different.

NM media reporting blasts now

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

It massively limits where Ukraine can attack. frees up Russian troops to be withdrawn from the Kherson and Crimea area to reinforce the Donbass

It also takes away water from Crimea and wipes away their defensive structures. This doesn't change the width of the river significantly after the waters recede

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by nik-

If they had the ability to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses they would have done it. In what dimension of logic would they be holding anything back at this point?

I think you underestimate Russia's military, Putin to this point isn't trying to destroy Ukraine, Putin wants Ukraine to give in but doesn't want a war with the west because he knows he'll loose everything, that's the logic.

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

If Russia could flatten Kyiv they would have by now. The perception that Russia isn't doing everything they could is a bit weird at this point. They are limited only by their internal resources, the claim they're fighting with one hand tied is grasping at straws.

I'm also fairly skeptical that even Putin's demise would change anything. This isn't just Putin, it's a majority of Russians. They've grown up believing the imperialist Russia strong and virtuous narrative. Actual opposition to the war is low 20-25% range, even from the depoliticized middle.

Russians seem acutely aware that losing the war is potentially worse than the flood of zinc coffins they've already seen. Even the "liberals" don't want the country to lose, since its potential fragmentation would be worse for them.

The day Putin is gone will be a national holiday, do you actually believe in polls in that country? Just look at his election results

[burn_this_city]

Let ignore evidence and confabulate a reality where Russia hasn't lost the majority of it's contract professional soldiers and 2/3 of their usable equipment.

We can also pretend that the general population doesn't support all this, despite decades of propaganda stretching back to Soviet times. Maybe the general public is becoming tired of the war now that it's hitting home, but they love the great patriotic war death cult.

[undercoverbrother]

I hope I am wrong but the Ukrainian counter offensive could be a slog this time.

In theory, Russia should be smarter and consolidated their positions.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

The day Putin is gone will be a national holiday, do you actually believe in polls in that country? Just look at his election results

FlamesAddiction and I think Itse wrote some great posts a while back about the hatred of the Russians toward Ukraine.

I'm paraphrasing, but the mere fact that Ukraine and a Ukrainian culture exists is an affront to them. To them, Russia extends from Bering Strait to Poland. How dare Zelenskyy lead this group of rogue Russians away from Moscow. If you won't join Moscow, we kill you. Looks what the cowards just did with that dam.

Putin leaving or dying won't change that mentality. It will take generations.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I hope I am wrong but the Ukrainian counter offensive could be a slog this time.

In theory, Russia should be smarter and consolidated their positions.

I think you're right. They way it looks to an untrained eye it'll still be high attrition for Russia due to low quality of troops, but the long time they had to get fortified will mean fortified positions hold longer and they won't run like Kherson.


The wild card is the brewing civil war in Russia

[Itse]

Under these circumstances, a huge breakthrough for Ukraine shouldn't really be possible.

Russia has had so much time to prepare defensively for anything Ukraine can do.