Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by Torture

https://twitter.com/user/status/1661469971875262464

So when we had low advanced turnout, the NDP won, when we had good turnout, the UCP won?

[Ferarri]

Going to be voting with the wife tonight and count +2 for the NDP. Hopefully these advanced poll numbers are indication that Alberta is tired of this corrupt POS government and fully backing the Alberta NDP.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

So when we had low advanced turnout, the NDP won, when we had good turnout, the UCP won?

I don't know if the NDP one was low, just "lower" than the UCP which was a record number of votes for Kenney.
Population grows over 8 years and advanced voting has become more mainstream so while the tweet compared, I'm not sure comparing to the NDP election tells us that much.

In general, there's a school of thought that higher voter turnout tends to mean a change election vs current government. Like I said in the previous post, I don't see a lot of excited and motivated UCPers running out to vote for Danielle Smith....more of a reluctant "should I hold my nose and vote or stay home?

Idk, make of it what you will I guess. Who knows until the votes are counted.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

So when we had low advanced turnout, the NDP won, when we had good turnout, the UCP won?

Is it even an apples to apples comparison? I feel like advance voting is easier now than it was in 2015.

Turnout overall wasn’t high in 2015 as it was in 2019 though. I think 2019 was 68% and 2015 was more like 57% if memory serves.

The conditions were different in 2015; the NDP win was a huge surprise to everyone (including to them I think) and related in no small part to vote splitting on the right between the PC and Wild Rose party. I would say both wings of the political spectrum are more united now than they were in 2015, and poeple that might have chosen another party before have coalesced around one of the two options.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

So today’s Mainstreet tracker has some very slight narrowing that doesn’t look significant, at least not to me. UCP lead down slightly to UCP+5.3.

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/s...28945416323079

Again, consistent with a small but steady UCP lead provincially, and any variance from yesterday is likely noise. To me the trend in this poll LOOKS reasonably clear.


Here’s the weird part though: Quito Maggi(you know, the fellow who runs Mainstreet) today tweeted that he has “seen enough” and expects the NDP to win. Link to the Twitter thread is here:

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/stat...41181395505152

In the thread he suggests there is regional and riding level data under the hood (not available yet, at least without a subscription—which I’m not about to pay for) that supports this prediction. I guess he is saying that the NDP vote is going to be more efficient than the UCP’s and the UCP will be running up huge margins in rural ridings and being mostly wiped out in Calgary and Edmonton?

I think it’s worth pausing on how strange this hypothesis is. In effect, he’s saying the NDP will form government without a popular vote majority. I’ve always viewed that as only being possible the other way. I remain skeptical to be honest, but that’s the thing about the future: you never know how it will go until it’s the past.

Maybe this is just copium speaking, but I do see a legitimately viable scenario where the UCP runs up the score with the popular vote by winning rural ridings by 70-30 margins but the NDP has a more efficient vote by winning the critical Calgary ridings by 52-48 margins, thus giving them an election victory.

[Fuzz]

Could you imagine the rage from UCP voters if they win the popular vote but lose the election?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Could you imagine the rage from UCP voters if they win the popular vote but lose the election?

Coutts will be on high alert

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1661158894486405121


Something you don't want to see. A pollster admitting publicly their desired outcome.(you may have to follow the Twitter link to see context)

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1661158894486405121


Something you don't want to see. A pollster admitting publicly their desired outcome.(you may have to follow the Twitter link to see context)

Totally agree. I wonder if what he meant is he hopes he’s right and doesn’t have to eat crow later.

I also think it’s a bit weird for pollsters to be tweeting about results while their polls are still in the field, or opining on the outcome of the election at all, but I guess they’re all doing it now..? :/

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1661158894486405121


Something you don't want to see. A pollster admitting publicly their desired outcome.(you may have to follow the Twitter link to see context)

Are we sure he isn't just showing solidarity over his personal experiences of harassment?

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by belsarius

The side that wants equal treatment for LGTBQ, the side that wants to ensure social supports exist for all citizens, the side that follows the science to prevent a catastrophe happening during covid, the side that wants to keep out racists/bigots/facists.

Yeah the left is totally the divisive side.

Just buzz words when you don’t have an actual platform, pretend you champion every marginalized cause and no one else does.

You definitely didn’t get douped by that catastrophe.

[Swift]

Just back from doing my civic duty as a new Canadian first time voter. In and out in five minutes. Not holding my breath but hoping I did my part to give Shandro the boot

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Maybe this is just copium speaking, but I do see a legitimately viable scenario where the UCP runs up the score with the popular vote by winning rural ridings by 70-30 margins but the NDP has a more efficient vote by winning the critical Calgary ridings by 52-48 margins, thus giving them an election victory.

It would basically be a mirror of the Federal election where the conservatives won the popular vote on the backs of mega-majorities in the Prairies, but lost the overall seat count to the much more efficient Liberals. If you look at the Federal divide the same as you look at the Rural/Urban Alberta divide, I feel like this is a real possibility.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Just buzz words when you don’t have an actual platform, pretend you champion every marginalized cause and no one else does.

You definitely didn’t get douped by that catastrophe.

Buzz words? Like "legacy left wing media".

Seriously, you should change your name to Cineplex because I have never seen so much projecting.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by belsarius

It would basically be a mirror of the Federal election where the conservatives won the popular vote on the backs of mega-majorities in the Prairies, but lost the overall seat count to the much more efficient Liberals. If you look at the Federal divide the same as you look at the Rural/Urban Alberta divide, I feel like this is a real possibility.

“Efficient” 32.5%

Impressive.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

So when we had low advanced turnout, the NDP won, when we had good turnout, the UCP won?

Far from universal, but high turnout probably often favors the challenger.

Low engagement = comfort with Status quo
High engagement = desire for change.

The challenge with this is the UPC voters our out to lunch enough to think that Notely is currently in control of the government.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Yoho

“Efficient” 32.5%

Impressive.

"Efficient" - it is the ability to do things well, successfully, and without waste.

Liberals - 160 seats won, 34,728.93 votes per seat
CPC - 119 Seats won, 48,297.56 votes per seat

The Liberals were more efficient because they needed less votes to win each seat. They were even more efficient than the concentrated Bloc who still needed just over 40k votes to win a seat.

[ajr4013]

Wife and I cast our votes for the NDP. In and out in 3 minutes at the Huntington Hills voting station.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Are we sure he isn't just showing solidarity over his personal experiences of harassment?

Could be, it's all a bit vague.

[Lubicon]

Great discussion on CBC radio with a UCalgary law and policy professor (IIRC) this morning about how two issues that are of massive importance to all Albertans due to their effect on the economy are not even registering in this campaign. Namely energy and the environment. Her thoughts were both parties feel they are weak on both issues and would leave themselves open to attack if they brought the topic up. So it's left relatively un-discussed.