Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I'm assuming the candidate listing on the Alberta Elections website is now finalized since the deadline was Thursday? Looks like the candidate for the Alberta Party that was supposedly running for Varsity is out of the race. If so I'm pretty disappointed and have no party to vote for.

You still have one to vote against. Help save the province from insanity.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You still have one to vote against. Help save the province from insanity.

Normally I'd say abstaining from voting is a legitimate right and a cogent strategy at times, but this election is about watching an insane boat captain sink a ship and abstaining is refusing to help.

[Yoho]

Smith guiding this election home nicely.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658454779943608320

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Shocking that nobody has corrected you yet /s
Mainstreet has been pretty much in line with Brown for multiple polls.
Abacus is showing the opposite of Brown and Mainstreet.

No idea who the other 2 pollsters are.

Based on topline margin Mainstreet’s last tracking poll (UCP +4) is actually closer to the last Leger numbers (NDP +2) than it is to Janet Brown. I don’t see them as “pretty much in line.”

To me the two that stand out are Abacus and Janet Brown. Everyone else is kind of within a standard deviation of one another.

One weird thing about the Janet Brown poll is it’s not even “pretty much in line” with Janet Brown. Her last poll showed the NDP ahead in Calgary by 5 points, in early April. She’s effectively saying that over the last 6 weeks, significant numbers of Calgarians watched Danielle Smith and thought “yes, I’d like more of that please.”

To me, that seems way less plausible than just saying “this is an outlier”, which is just a thing that happens sometimes and in no way a criticism of her poll or her methodology.

[GordonBlue]

What are the chances that the election gets delayed "due to the wildfires"?
I'm reading a lot of smaller communities in fire zones are begging for an election delay.

[Stewie991]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You still have one to vote against. Help save the province from insanity.

Choosing 1 Evil over the other won’t save anything!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

What are the chances that the election gets delayed "due to the wildfires"?
I'm reading a lot of smaller communities in fire zones are begging for an election delay.

It’s a good question; lots of chatter about it recently, and if the situation gets worse you really wonder how fair it is to hold an election when parts of the province have no realistic way to get to the polls.

Not sure where the authority to make that call is, but would think it’s the Premier in consultation with the Lieutenant-governor maybe? Somebody on here probably knows.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Stewie991

Choosing 1 Evil over the other won’t save anything!

Notley isn't evil. She actually cares about people. There is no equivalency here. If you think there is, you have been taken in by misinformation and BS "news" sites.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

It’s a good question; lots of chatter about it recently, and if the situation gets worse you really wonder how fair it is to hold an election when parts of the province have no realistic way to get to the polls.

Not sure where the authority to make that call is, but would think it’s the Premier in consultation with the Lieutenant-governor maybe? Somebody on here probably knows.

I think it has to be requested by the chief elections officer and signed off by a judge, but I'm not positive either

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

What are the chances that the election gets delayed "due to the wildfires"?
I'm reading a lot of smaller communities in fire zones are begging for an election delay.

The bar is high for delaying an election date and can only be requested on a constituency by constituency basis.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...elay-1.6839283


So it would probably be rural UCP ridings anway. It would lead to an interesting situation if the NDP lead by, say, 2 seats, but there are 2 districts that have delayed the vote. Presumably the previous MLA's would still have their seat until a vote, so the UCP would maintain control? Could get weird.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Notley isn't evil. She actually cares about people. There is no equivalency here. If you think there is, you have been taken in by misinformation and BS "news" sites.

Hell, even if you conceded that both were evil, the NDP is objectively the better evil by every single metric and therefore would obviously solve at least a few things.

UCP voters who think both are evil so it doesn’t matter are like people eating literal #### because they don’t like the taste of liver. Genius stuff. You don’t have to love the taste of liver but it seems objectively better than locking your lips on someone’s rear and waiting.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Shocking that nobody has corrected you yet /s
Mainstreet has been pretty much in line with Brown for multiple polls.
Abacus is showing the opposite of Brown and Mainstreet.

No idea who the other 2 pollsters are.

Mainstreet shows Notley with a 7 point lead in Calgary, a 20 point lead in Edmonton and Smith with a 45 point lead in the rest of Alberta. Throw all that together and you end up with a province wide 5 point lead for Smith. Province wide numbers are meaningless in that scenario other than maybe costing the NDP Banff. But no pollster other than Brown shows the UCP ahead in Calgary.

Mainstreet’s numbers are narrowing, by weeks end they will have it at around 3 points province wide because Notley is getting stronger in the cities in their numbers.

[Slava]

They could delay the elections in those ridings and hold them elsewhere.

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658236738802970625


Totally what you expect a "journalist" to say. Like, come on. He isn't even pretending. Yet some people think he deserves the same access and respect as people who have dedicated their lives to actual journalism.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Based on topline margin Mainstreet’s last tracking poll (UCP +4) is actually closer to the last Leger numbers (NDP +2) than it is to Janet Brown. I don’t see them as “pretty much in line.”

To me the two that stand out are Abacus and Janet Brown. Everyone else is kind of within a standard deviation of one another.

One weird thing about the Janet Brown poll is it’s not even “pretty much in line” with Janet Brown. Her last poll showed the NDP ahead in Calgary by 5 points, in early April. She’s effectively saying that over the last 6 weeks, significant numbers of Calgarians watched Danielle Smith and thought “yes, I’d like more of that please.”

To me, that seems way less plausible than just saying “this is an outlier”, which is just a thing that happens sometimes and in no way a criticism of her poll or her methodology.

I heard that Brown's isn't an unadjusted poll, they're modelled results based on polling. So probably include adjustments based on which party's supporters are most likely to actually vote etc., she thinks polls under-represent conservative voters.

[Ozy_Flame]

The sad part is Smith pays him credence right back by answering Rebel Media questions before actual journalists when she does press conferences, like the one yesterday.

Make no mistake - Smith loves people like Bexte and his organization, and wants to give them a platform, even with his hate material, wild misinformation and past associations with white supremacy. And Bexte is just one of multiple ridiculous characters she gives special attention to over normal Albertans.

Vote Danielle! 2023!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The sad part is Smith pays him credence right back by answering Rebel Media questions before actual journalists when she does press conferences, like the one yesterday.

Make no mistake - Smith loves people like Bexte and his organization, and wants to give them a platform, even with his hate material, wild misinformation and past associations with white supremacy. And Bexte is just one of multiple ridiculous characters she gives special attention to over normal Albertans.

Vote Danielle! 2023!

Well ya, all those "media" organizations have given her oxygen. WS had her on several times over the pandemic, sometimes with those criminal lawyers who had that judge monitored. Like, this is why we have to control misinformation, our Premier was handed the job by them. They are outright doing each other favours. It's disgusting banana republic ####.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658236738802970625


Totally what you expect a "journalist" to say. Like, come on. He isn't even pretending. Yet some people think he deserves the same access and respect as people who have dedicated their lives to actual journalism.

My favourite is the “no matter how many times I get charged for it” line. Was he even charged yesterday? I know he walks out with his hands behind his back as though he’s cuffed, but as far as I know he was just told to leave.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Smith guiding this election home nicely.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658454779943608320

I’m curious how people who are against vaccine passports square this forced treatment? Doesn’t that go directly against their libertarian beliefs?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Based on topline margin Mainstreet’s last tracking poll (UCP +4) is actually closer to the last Leger numbers (NDP +2) than it is to Janet Brown. I don’t see them as “pretty much in line.”

To me the two that stand out are Abacus and Janet Brown. Everyone else is kind of within a standard deviation of one another.

One weird thing about the Janet Brown poll is it’s not even “pretty much in line” with Janet Brown. Her last poll showed the NDP ahead in Calgary by 5 points, in early April. She’s effectively saying that over the last 6 weeks, significant numbers of Calgarians watched Danielle Smith and thought “yes, I’d like more of that please.”

To me, that seems way less plausible than just saying “this is an outlier”, which is just a thing that happens sometimes and in no way a criticism of her poll or her methodology.

I wouldn't worry about a single poll. No one - even a good pollster is going to nail everyone of them. It gets tougher now because hardly anyone answers calls from a number/name they don't recognize. Even if you have set it up so it comes up as 'Polling company' on the display name - you are biasing your sample because only people who want to do a poll are going to answer.

Its also more difficult when voting trends shift - if you look in the US - a state like Florida that has shifted red in recent elections as closer than actual because you are doing assumptions that x person based on this demographic is going to vote this way based on past trends and your sample of 3 people who actually answered the phone in that demographic.

She could be right, she could be wrong - but in general - typically the polling average is decent. That 2008 example given in the article - if you look at the wikipedia article and the polls showed - they seem to be pretty close to end result - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_A...neral_election