2023 NHL Draft Thread

[Sandman]

In the J20 Liiga, Willander had 25 points in 39 games (0.64), tied for 17th in D-scoring for the entire league. Very impressive for a player who was 17 most of the year. For players under 18, he ranks third in that league, just ahead of fellow draft-eligible D Arvid Bergstrom, who had 23 points in 41 games (0.56 ppg). In my write-up, I pegged Willander for early second-round, but I could easily see him sneaking into the late first. I still have ASP, Reinbacher, and Dragicevic ahead of him.

How impressive was Axel Sandin-Pelikka's season? 36 points in 31 games (1.16 ppg), good for 4th best season all-time for an under-18 player in the J20. Erik Karlsson had 37 points in 38 games (0.97 ppg).

[Bingo]

Up to 9 lists in the average now.

Ledge 1

1 Connor Bedard
2 Adam Fantilli
3 Leo Carlsson
4 Matvei Michkov
5 Will Smith
6 Zach Benson

Flames Ledge

7 Ryan Leonard C 10.67
8 Dalibor Dvorský C 10.67
9 Colby Barlow LW 11.11
10 Eduard Sale RW 11.33
11 Oliver Moore C 12.67
12 Brayden Yager C 13.44
13 Axel Sandin Pellikka D 13.89
14 Andrew Cristall LW 15.11
15 Nate Danielson C 15.78
16 David Reinbacher D 16.00
17 Gabe Perreault RW 17.44
18 Matthew Wood F 18.00
19 Calum Ritchie C 20.22

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

You've watched him?

You ask me every year, and every year I tell you that one of my only interests in the league is in watching videos of upcoming draft players and making mock drafts for myself and friends.

Yes, I have watched. To answer Bingo, I have watched highlight packages and not full games. It is your decision whether or not to agree with my own assessment, I am not making claims that all of you must listen to me. Would it be helpful if I put "I am not an expert on assessing draft talent, only a passionate fan" in my signature? I think it's redundant personally. But you guys can let me know if you don't think so.

This player is very similar to Erixon, in my estimation. I don't think he would spite us to try and reach another club, I just don't think he's a very exciting talent on any fronts. Solid, two way defender with limited upside but a reasonable floor. Erixon didn't even reach his suspected floor in the end.

Sandman can give you expert level thoughts if that's what you're after. But picking this player instead of the players we know should be available at our pick is lunacy, imo.

[Monahammer]

And- I will say that it seems the vast majority of "pro" draft watchers would agree with that last take given the updated average list bingo's posting does not mention Wallinder at all.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

He just had a Vezina caliber season in 2022. The guy is not done. He had an off year, but every player in Calgary did, except for a select few. His value is at an all time low if we are even shopping him. I don't believe we are, not yet at least. Vladar will likely be the one to go.

No worries, they would have to pay someone to take Markstrom

He is safe.

Is he done? Nothing is 100% but he is close

[Knut]

How can anybody say a goalie is "done" or "close" to done?

Goalies are absolute Voodoo.. Some start out as stars and peter out. Some become stars in their 30's. It is mindboggling that someone can claim a goalie is done. We see it every single year. The top 10 goalie rankings have giant changes every single year.

Some people just love to be negative about everything. Its so very tiresome.

Anyway. I do not think the value is there in taking a Dman at 16. There likely is 3 dmen taken before their pick leaving a lot of valuable forwards. Take the best player available and use your 2nd on a dman if you need one.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Good players may be there, but you are looking at 2-3 years before they are good, contributing NHL players in most cases. Does this really help? If it were me, I would be still seriously considering moving players like Toffoli, Lindholm, Tanev in the hopes you can gather further draft capital or prospects closer to being ready to contribute.

This also opens the doors for some of the better prospects to take a more legitimate role on the team next year. Win Win in my opinion.

I agree this team should sell and load up on picks. But if they don't and I don't think they will they should be drafting the best forward available. Most likely position to draft a player that makes an impact sooner. Sooner than 2-3 years.

Current examples are Mercer and Johnston. Mercer is on his 2nd year of his ELC and Johnston is 1st year ELC.

Robert Thomas also made an impact on his ELC.

If the Flames refuse to rebuild, they need to draft guys that make an impact sooner than later IMO.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Knut

How can anybody say a goalie is "done" or "close" to done?

It's pretty evident at certain times for certain goaltenders. It was pretty evident when Jim Carrey was done. It was even more evident when Tommy Salo was done. It Jacob Markstrom like either of them? I think he's very much like Tommy Salo. He was so traumatized by that series against the Oilers that it was predictable he would come back this year and possibly be a wreck. That played out as predicted. The confounding factor here is Sutter and the mind games he played all year long. Did that exacerbate the Salo effect? I would say give Markstrom 20 games next year and we'll know if he's bouncing back or if he's clearly done. I hope he bounces back, but I see a lot of Tommy Salo in him.

[Knut]

^ do you think Connor Helleybuck is done too ? Terrible playoff.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

It's pretty evident at certain times for certain goaltenders. It was pretty evident when Jim Carrey was done. It was even more evident when Tommy Salo was done. It Jacob Markstrom like either of them? I think he's very much like Tommy Salo. He was so traumatized by that series against the Oilers that it was predictable he would come back this year and possibly be a wreck. That played out as predicted. The confounding factor here is Sutter and the mind games he played all year long. Did that exacerbate the Salo effect? I would say give Markstrom 20 games next year and we'll know if he's bouncing back or if he's clearly done. I hope he bounces back, but I see a lot of Tommy Salo in him.

Sorry what kind games did Sutter play with Markstrom again? Publicly supporting him and trying to get him going all year when most here were outraged that he wasn't benching him and playing Vladar? How is that mind games? If anything he tried too long to get him going and gave him too much leash.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

You ask me every year, and every year I tell you that one of my only interests in the league is in watching videos of upcoming draft players and making mock drafts for myself and friends.

Yes, I have watched. To answer Bingo, I have watched highlight packages and not full games. It is your decision whether or not to agree with my own assessment, I am not making claims that all of you must listen to me. Would it be helpful if I put "I am not an expert on assessing draft talent, only a passionate fan" in my signature? I think it's redundant personally. But you guys can let me know if you don't think so.

This player is very similar to Erixon, in my estimation. I don't think he would spite us to try and reach another club, I just don't think he's a very exciting talent on any fronts. Solid, two way defender with limited upside but a reasonable floor. Erixon didn't even reach his suspected floor in the end.

Sandman can give you expert level thoughts if that's what you're after. But picking this player instead of the players we know should be available at our pick is lunacy, imo.

It's the hyperbole of calling it lunacy that I object to. He's a valid player in that range.

I find most of the online lists regurgitate the same names in the same approximate range, and rarely reflect any informed views. But they become "the list" in the minds of fans.

I try to avoid having strong views about these prospects. I consume a lot of prospect content as well, but I recognize the limits of what I can do as a single fan, so I temper how much weight I put into my own thoughts.

But you do you.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Good players may be there, but you are looking at 2-3 years before they are good, contributing NHL players in most cases.

Usually more like 4-5 years before a player is full time in the NHL and beginning to contribute. There are exceptions, but once you get outside of the top 10 you're usually in a longer development cycle, especially if they are junior players.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Usually more like 4-5 years before a player is full time in the NHL and beginning to contribute. There are exceptions, but once you get outside of the top 10 you're usually in a longer development cycle, especially if they are junior players.

If you look at Zary's draft, there are already 5 guys playing well in the bottom half of the first round of that draft. Zary has 2 years left on his ELC, if he has a good rookie year the impact he can make on his ELC still can be significant.

Mercer is hands down the best so far having 42 points and 56 points in his first 2 seasons.

Guhle, Barron, Schneider and Chinakov have all made positive impacts early on.

Schneider and Mercer play on very good teams too. The other 3 all might be getting ice because their teams are rebuilding. But they have shown they deserve to be in the league.

[Naitix]

I think Matthew Wood could make the team 1 year post draft, he is my top target now unless players drop

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Up to 9 lists in the average now.

Ledge 1

1 Connor Bedard
2 Adam Fantilli
3 Leo Carlsson
4 Matvei Michkov
5 Will Smith
6 Zach Benson

Flames Ledge

7 Ryan Leonard C 10.67
8 Dalibor Dvorský C 10.67
9 Colby Barlow LW 11.11
10 Eduard Sale RW 11.33
11 Oliver Moore C 12.67
12 Brayden Yager C 13.44
13 Axel Sandin Pellikka D 13.89
14 Andrew Cristall LW 15.11
15 Nate Danielson C 15.78
16 David Reinbacher D 16.00
17 Gabe Perreault RW 17.44
18 Matthew Wood F 18.00
19 Calum Ritchie C 20.22

If we're in that list, we'll be updating our Midterm ranking (from February) relatively shortly. We're working on our final list for our 2023 NHL Draft Guide (details/discount coming soon).

In the meantime...I ran our post-Lottery mock. I'm sure a few will appreciate. Also worth noting we've got a pile of free content on our site, in addition to some behind-the-paywall stuff I know a few of you have been digging into (including over 100 reports logged from the U18s, plus some bonus free coverage)!

https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/fchoc...023-nhl-draft/

EDIT: Shoot. Forgot to mention our Mock Draft Builder is live and updated with all your post-lottery fun: https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by FCAV

If we're in that list, we'll be updating our Midterm ranking (from February) relatively shortly. We're working on our final list for our 2023 NHL Draft Guide (details/discount coming soon).

In the meantime...I ran our post-Lottery mock. I'm sure a few will appreciate. Also worth noting we've got a pile of free content on our site, in addition to some behind-the-paywall stuff I know a few of you have been digging into (including over 100 reports logged from the U18s, plus some bonus free coverage)!

https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/fchoc...023-nhl-draft/

EDIT: Shoot. Forgot to mention our Mock Draft Builder is live and updated with all your post-lottery fun: https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/

Your mock draft tool is the best available, thanks!

Just scored Danielson and Honzek in rounds 1 and 2 in my first go. Interesting that the ducks took Carlsson, the Bjs took Michkov, and Fantili fell to 4th.

[FlamesAddiction]

Speaking of ledges in the draft, I can't recall who said it (Craig Button maybe, but I could be wrong), but one of these prospect experts said that the 2 guys ranked after Bedard (assuming Fantilli and either Michkov or Carlsson) are closer to Bedard than they are to the prospects ranked after them. I know I am wording that weird, but they basically suggested that it was like Bedard > Fantilli/Carlson/Michkov >>> any other projected 1st rounder.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

At that spot it's possible that BPA could be a D. I think Reinbacher, Pelllilkka and Willander are all legit choices in that area.
Most drafts all 3 would go top 10 or even higher.

Reinbacher is going to rise like crazy. I could see him going as high as 5 or 6.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Speaking of ledges in the draft, I can't recall who said it (Craig Button maybe, but I could be wrong), but one of these prospect experts said that the 2 guys ranked after Bedard (assuming Fantilli and either Michkov or Carlsson) are close to Bedard than they are to the prospects ranked after them. I know I am wording that weird, but they basically suggested that it was like Bedard > Fantilli/Carlson/Michkov >>> any other projected 1st rounder.

Talent wise, that’s exactly right. I still think Michkov could possibly slip a few spots, though.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Knut

^ do you think Connor Helleybuck is done too ? Terrible playoff.

when a 52 year old Mike Smith, who let in a goal from 180 feet outplays you, you are done!

Markstrom's series against the Oilerz was the worst in NHL history. You don't come back from that.