I like Jacob Markstrom

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by cannon7

It's a projection. So yeah?

There's a lot of pretty flawed assumptions in your projection.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Since Vladar has had the easier teams, not particularly relevant.

You sure about that? By my count 15 of the 25 games (60%) Vladar is credited with the decision are playoff teams.

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Markly is better than Vladar.

By what measure? That nickname sure isn't.

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Goalie wins are really a team stat.

Then how do you explain the disparity?

[FlamesAddiction]

Call me old, but I still like GAA, SA%, and wins as the best stats to evaluate goalies. Vladar beats Markstrom in all three. Not by a lot for the first 2 mind you. The draw back of course is that the sample size for Vladar is smaller meaning there is probably more room for error in any stats you use for him. He could be better, worse or the same depending on how things would extrapolate if he played an equal number of games as Markstrom. Then again, if fatigue is an issue for Markstrom, he could be posting a lot better numbers with fewer games. Wins are an interesting stat. They are a team stat obviously, but I think the number sometimes reflects the confidence that the team playing in front has when playing in front of certain goalies. Anyone have the numbers for goals scored for while each goalie played? That can be an indicator of how deflated or confident the rest of the team was while a particular goalie was in net.

I really think there is a good chance that Vladar could be a quality goalie if was able to get into a better deployment routine. Coming in cold all the time probably hasn't helped him. Markstrom might have benefited from fewer games too, especially in the last few weeks. Honestly, he looked dog tired the last couple of games. He just had a baby after all, so sleep at the Markstrom household is probably erratic at the moment.

I'm not a Sutter basher like a lot of people, but I do think goalie deployment has been a head scratcher.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by cannon7

By what measure?

Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom -6.0
Vladar -8.4

Vladar is not the answer to the Flames woes.

Marky has been below average, Vladar even more so.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Call me old, but I still like GAA, SA%, and wins as the best stats to evaluate goalies.

You are old.

Those stats ignore number of shots taken (for GAA), quality of shots taken
both SV% and GAA) and quality of opponents (all three).

A better stat:

Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom -6.0
Vladar -8.4


Wins? It's funny how based on this stat there isn't a decent goalie in the league playing on a poor team.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by cannon7

You sure about that? By my count 15 of the 25 games (60%) Vladar is credited with the decision are playoff teams.



By what measure? That nickname sure isn't.



Then how do you explain the disparity?

Vladar on average started against the 13th best team in the league this year in his starts. That includes 13 starts out of 23 total starts against teams in the top 13. He faced the much tougher opponents compared with Markstrom. 14 starts against playoff teams, 9 against non playoff teams.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's got to the point where I'm generally terrified anytime the opposition has possession in the Flames end that they get a shot on net because it seems like a lot of them just go in on Markstrom regardless of the difficulty of the shot. Kind of like Rittich and Hiller were in their last games as a Flame. It's pretty shocking that a goaltender can go from Vezina caliber to ECHL caliber in a calendar year.

Every shot. I am shocked when it doesn't go in.

I mean sure, the first shot was post and in, but look at how much room the shooter had - it was a foot wide of Markstrom's glove and still went in. He is leaving so much net exposed, I am sure that even I could score.

He was playing well for a while there. But he has been terrible for the last few games again - you gotta think he's tired from playing too much. How Sutter didn't start Vladar last night is beyond me, with the most important game of the season looming tonight

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I maintain he's tradeable because GM's will view this season as a one off and part of an overall team failure this season. The Leafs traded for Matt Murray last offseason after three years of declining stats and much lower probability of turning it around. Oilers signed Campbell to a 5 year contract. Enough said. There's more teams than there are legitimate starting goaltenders in this league so teams will always take a flyer on a goaltender that's got a history of good play. Maybe the team has to eat a bit of money on the contract but I don't see any scenario where they would have to add picks or prospects to sweeten a deal.

Yup, no question in my mind.

I still think we should trade Vladar, but if they want to trade Markstrom, I don't think there is any question that there would be a pretty good market for him.

[I_H8_Crawford]

Just a friendly reminder that if Jakob ".700" Markstrom played like a league average goalie this year, the Flames are comfortably in a playoff spot, despite Huberdeau, Kadri, Eat Bread's struggles.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You are old.

Those stats ignore number of shots taken (for GAA), quality of shots taken
both SV% and GAA) and quality of opponents (all three).

A better stat:

Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom -6.0
Vladar -8.4


Wins? It's funny how based on this stat there isn't a decent goalie in the league playing on a poor team.

You calling that guy old? I don’t know who he is but I assure you I have seen older

Many people on this site make this common mistake

GSAA is actually a simple stat, based solely on sv%

It doesn’t factor in shot quality or anything remotely fancy - it takes the difference between league average sv% and that of the goalie, looks at their actual shots and goals, and calculates the difference

5v5
Markstrom has -19.09 GSAA
Vladar has -4.04

All strengths
-19
-7.89

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pla...ms.php?stdoi=g

[Goriders]

Markstrom has been playing great lately. Or at least good enough to help the team win. I’m sure there’s a direct correlation between his turnaround and the team’s improved performance.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Markstrom has been playing great lately. Or at least good enough to help the team win. I’m sure there’s a direct correlation between his turnaround and the team’s improved performance.

He has been a lot better lately, problem is that the damage is already done.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You are old.

Those stats ignore number of shots taken (for GAA), quality of shots taken
both SV% and GAA) and quality of opponents (all three).

A better stat:

Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom -6.0
Vladar -8.4


Wins? It's funny how based on this stat there isn't a decent goalie in the league playing on a poor team.

You know what else is funny. Goals saved above avg is subjective and different sites have dofferent values. Natural stat trick has Vladar with better GSAA than Markstrom.

At the end of the day. Sv%, GAA and wins are not subjective. Especially when comparing 2 goalies on the same team, behind the same team.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Jacks

He has been a lot better lately, problem is that the damage is already done.

Still allow bunch of untimely goals and depends on team to bail him out

For 6.5M he needs to carry the team but it’s the other way around even on his good games.

Trade him and give Wolf a chance. Can’t be worse.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

You know what else is funny. Goals saved above avg is subjective and different sites have dofferent values. Natural stat trick has Vladar with better GSAA than Markstrom.

At the end of the day. Sv%, GAA and wins are not subjective. Especially when comparing 2 goalies on the same team, behind the same team.

No it’s not.

GSAA is based on sv%

GSAx is different based on site, as different sites have different methodologies for expected goals

It is a common mistake

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Still allow bunch of untimely goals and depends on team to bail him out

For 6.5M he needs to carry the team but it’s the other way around even on his good games.

Trade him and give Wolf a chance. Can’t be worse.

Nah, no goalie should have to carry their team. And by no means has it been the other way around. What's happened is he's not been able to bail them out of their critical errors early in games often enough.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You calling that guy old? I don’t know who he is but I assure you I have seen older

Many people on this site make this common mistake

GSAA is actually a simple stat, based solely on sv%

It doesn’t factor in shot quality or anything remotely fancy - it takes the difference between league average sv% and that of the goalie, looks at their actual shots and goals, and calculates the difference

5v5
Markstrom has -19.09 GSAA
Vladar has -4.04

All strengths
-19
-7.89

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pla...ms.php?stdoi=g

Goals saved above average started out as a simple save percentage differential as you point out.

But has since evolved into a xGA vs GA calculation.

And xGA very much takes into account the quality of the shot.

To understand the concept of goals saved above expected, one must first understand what expected goals (xG) are. The calculation behind them is relatively simple. Each shot attempt is assigned a numerical value based on the percent chance the shot has of going in. This percentage is based on an abundance of factors, including but not limited to shot distance, shot angle, goalie positioning, number of defensemen present, and number of sticks in the way. Even factors like whether or not there was a cross-crease pass preceding the shot are taken into account.

That percentage is then converted to a decimal (a shot with a 20% chance of going in has an xG value of 0.2). These decimals are accumulated into a team’s or player’s xG total in a game. For example, let’s say Sidney Crosby takes three shot attempts in a game. The first has a 15% chance of going in, the second has a 32% chance, and the third has a 56% chance. Crosby’s xG total for the game would be the total of all three percentages or 1.03 xG.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

No it’s not.

GSAA is based on sv%

GSAx is different based on site, as different sites have different methodologies for expected goals

It is a common mistake

Then, the poster I was replying to wasnt using GSAA which is what was referenced in their post.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Nah, no goalie should have to carry their team. And by no means has it been the other way around. What's happened is he's not been able to bail them out of their critical errors early in games often enough.

What do you think Saros is doing?

Maybe not carrying but at least be one of their best players.

By the way, Markstrom let in plenty of softies , you forgot already?

[tvp2003]

Was curious where Markstrom stood in terms of cap hit; in terms of highest AAV for a goalie, the top 20:

1. Price - $10.5
2. Bobrovsky - $10
3. Vasilevskiy - $9.5
4. Gibson - $6.4
5. Murray - $6.25
6. Hellebuyck - $6.167
7. Markstrom - $6
8. Binnington - $6
9. Grubauer - $5.9
10. Quick - $5.8
11. Shesterkin - $5.667
12. Merzlikins - $5.4
13. Keumper - $5.25
14. Demko - $5
15. Campbell - $5
16. Ulmark - $5
17. Saros - $5
18. Varlamov - $5
19. Bishop - $4.917
20. Husso - $4.75

Markstom is paid as a somewhat above average starter (which looks to be around that $5M range), and has obviously been well below average this year.

If he continues to struggle next year then I think you have to look at trading him or maybe even buying him out, but I feel reasonably confident he'll put up at least average NHL numbers next year (this season has been too much of an anomoly for too many on this team).