Russia invades Ukraine

[Huntingwhale]

Great news for the Finns and Western allies today!

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said by attacking his neighbour, the Russian leader had triggered exactly what he had sought to prevent.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Russia would be "watching closely" what happens in Finland, describing Nato's enlargement as a "violation of our security and our national interests".

"President Putin had a declared goal of the invasion of Ukraine to get less Nato along its borders and no more membership in Europe, he's getting exactly the opposite."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was "tempted to say this is maybe the one thing we can thank Mr Putin for, because he once again here has precipitated something he claims to want to prevent by Russia's aggression".

It has already been talked about numerous times just how big of a colossal #### up this war has been for Russia so doesn't need to be mentioned how embarrassing this is for russia. Any time any kind of discussion occurs towards the Kremlin, it should begin and end with how Putin himself is responsible for NATO expanding along it's border. Remember how pre-war there were discussion between NATO and RU on expansion and how hard russia tried to make it seem they had no choice but to invade to protect against NATO expansion? Russia pretending to be a big boy at the big boy table so they can show their populace they are trying to make a deal with the big scary Western enemy? ####ing LOL.

My wife has been translating some Telegram chats this morning for me and plenty of russians in shambles over this. Already some super duper scary nuke threats creeping in on those pages. It should be thrown back in their faces on every news channel, social network, IG/FB/VK/TG page just how big of a screw up this is for Russia and there is ONE person to blame: dear leader Putin.

Spoiler!

What a beauty this map is now. Looking forward to the day UA joins and Russia can finally be contained on the Eastern flank.

[FlamesAddiction]

Worth mentioning too that Finland's next Prime Minister said that Finland will continue to stand with Ukraine and his government's priority will be to fix Finland's economy and build-up NATO. Just in case there were any worries that Finalnd's government change was going to lead to foreign policy shift.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Great news for the Finns and Western allies today!







It has already been talked about numerous times just how big of a colossal #### up this war has been for Russia so doesn't need to be mentioned how embarrassing this is for russia. Any time any kind of discussion occurs towards the Kremlin, it should begin and end with how Putin himself is responsible for NATO expanding along it's border. Remember how pre-war there were discussion between NATO and RU on expansion and how hard russia tried to make it seem they had no choice but to invade to protect against NATO expansion? Russia pretending to be a big boy at the big boy table so they can show their populace they are trying to make a deal with the big scary Western enemy? ####ing LOL.

My wife has been translating some Telegram chats this morning for me and plenty of russians in shambles over this. Already some super duper scary nuke threats creeping in on those pages. It should be thrown back in their faces on every news channel, social network, IG/FB/VK/TG page just how big of a screw up this is for Russia and there is ONE person to blame: dear leader Putin.

Spoiler!

What a beauty this map is now. Looking forward to the day UA joins and Russia can finally be contained on the Eastern flank.

You forget glorious nation of Belarus. Clearly a threat to the world.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Worth mentioning too that Finland's next Prime Minister said that Finland will continue to stand with Ukraine and his government's priority will be to fix Finland's economy and build-up NATO. Just in case there were any worries that Finalnd's government change was going to lead to foreign policy shift.

The new government coalition will (unless something truly bizarre happens) be lead by the National Coalition party, a right wing party who have a bit of a tendency to fanboy the US, and who have been wanting to join NATO for decades now.

(This isn't why they won the election though. Joining NATO and supporting Ukraine is among the least divisive issues in Finnish politics in my lifetime. The election was basically 100% about local economic questions.)

(Oh, and for all the Marin fans, there's a pretty decent chance she'll continue in some fairly visible role in the next government. If her party is part of the next coalition she'd probably be either the minister of finance (most likely) or minister of foreign affairs.)

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Moving this here as the American Politics thread is all Trump



I think this a misinterpretation of what any of the sanctions are really for. First off, Russia stockpiled money specifically for this "special military operation". The knew sanctions were coming, though clearly did not expect to see them at this level. Secondly, wars are not won and lost by military force alone, especially when one side is invading another for territory. Wars are lost when the invaded side cannot militarily support it's resistance or there's sufficient political motive to cut it's losses and give up land that the invaders deem sufficient. On the invaders side, the war ends with either regime change or when it cannot sell the sacrifice to the populace and either regime change or the specter of regime change forces leadership to give up the invasion.

In this case, Putin can go on like this for years if you're not worried about political blowback. He could continue to march soldiers to their deaths and spend all of the economies money on financing it. So far the sanctions haven't hit the populace much because Russia has relatively low production costs for oil and even with the massive discounts China and India were paying there was still buckets of money coming in. With suppressed prices this is going to bite, and hard. We're also starting to see India try to force Russia into longer term discounts which will make the medium term look even worse:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1643281141913272325

Thanks for continuing over here. Probably should have asked it here to begin with but saw that other post and it sparked my interest.

Here is another post:

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Can you point out what metric you would be using to qualify this? An isolated purchase of their oil by Japan is not going to improve the financial situation of Russia, which is becoming more dire by the day. 3.9% GDP reduction in 2022 and forecast to decline by 5.3% in 2023, in spite of global inflation (which by nature increases GDP). OECD numbers.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/i...ssian-economy/

Their exports have really fallen off a cliff since sanctions began. They had rougly 14% inflation last year, 9% projected this year. Their capital market was hit by 33% immediately on sanctions, and though stabilized has been on steady decline since the sanctions hit. Add to that the expected massive decline in productivity of labor over the next decade due to straight up missing workforce (death or fleeing from war) and I think it is pretty safe to project massive economic pain in Russia over the next 5 years, regardless of if the situation changed immediately, today.

I guess just the fact that they are still selling millions and billions of dollars worth of oil and natural gas every day. Sure their economy isn't great, but aside from all the talk early on about how the ruble would colllapse and being removed from the global market (or something like that. sorry don't remember the exact term) was going to really impact their will to fight. You look at sanctions in places like North Korea, Cuba, and Iran, and at various times those countries were severly cut off from most of the world. Even then, really only 1 of those 3 came to the bargaining table. It just seems like the only ones being punished are the countries doing the sanctions.

I think you point out another part of the economic situation as well. The percentage losses you point out could also be attributed to the loss of life in the war, loss of working age males that were avoiding the raft, and mobilization efforts leading to lower productivity. So the sanctions may be having less of an effect when taking those things into account?

[Huntingwhale]

Fascinating read on the life of a former Federal Guard Service officer who worked very close to Putin and who is now defected.

Long read, but well worth learning some insight into those that work around Putin.

Seems like he is one of the very very few around Putin who has his head on straight.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...et-life-a80699

https://dossier.center/fso-en/

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Germany needs to be yanked by the choke collar from time to time.

Otherwise things get… uncomfortable.

Yes Germany can have its energy infrastructure blown up and shores contaminated and can’t say anything. Soon you’ll be able to go to Germany and shoot people for sport

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Itse

The new government coalition will (unless something truly bizarre happens) be lead by the National Coalition party, a right wing party who have a bit of a tendency to fanboy the US, and who have been wanting to join NATO for decades now.

(This isn't why they won the election though. Joining NATO and supporting Ukraine is among the least divisive issues in Finnish politics in my lifetime. The election was basically 100% about local economic questions.)

(Oh, and for all the Marin fans, there's a pretty decent chance she'll continue in some fairly visible role in the next government. If her party is part of the next coalition she'd probably be either the minister of finance (most likely) or minister of foreign affairs.)

She can minister my affairs amirite fellas


/S relax people.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

She can minister my affairs amirite fellas


/S relax people.

I'm confused, what is the point of a post like this? You make a sexist remark, post-end it with /s and a pre-emptive defense like you expect to be chided, but why?

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I'm confused, what is the point of a post like this? You make a sexist remark, post-end it with /s and a pre-emptive defense like you expect to be chided, but why?

Basic "schrödingers sexist" move.

In any case, Marin has just announced that she will not continue as the leader of her party. She's not leaving politics altogether, but desires a less prominent role for now.

Which didn't shock anyone. She's basically been Finland's biggest celebrity during her tenure as PM, both locally and internationally, kind of overshadowing everything and everyone else in politics. She also (very competently) lead the country through two really complicated crisis which would wear anyone down, and got a ridiculous amount of crap from the media through it all, with the obviously sexist and petty criticism burying any real chance to discuss her politics in a reasonable way.

(The move also likely slightly increases her parties chances of being part of the next government coalition, as it's no secret she and the upcoming PM have a pretty bad personal relationship.)

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Itse

Basic "schrödingers sexist" move.

In any case, Marin has just announced that she will not continue as the leader of her party. She's not leaving politics altogether, but desires a less prominent role for now.

Which didn't shock anyone. She's basically been Finland's biggest celebrity during her tenure as PM, both locally and internationally, kind of overshadowing everything and everyone else in politics. She also (very competently) lead the country through two really complicated crisis which would wear anyone down, and got a ridiculous amount of crap from the media through it all, with the obviously sexist and petty criticism burying any real chance to discuss her politics in a reasonable way.

(The move also likely slightly increases her parties chances of being part of the next government coalition, as it's no secret she and the upcoming PM have a pretty bad personal relationship.)

It's admirable when a politician knows when it is time to step back. In Canada, ours tend to stay on until they destroy their own party.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's admirable when a politician knows when it is time to step back. In Canada, ours tend to stay on until they destroy their own party.

It's parliamentary tradition!

Curious, did it start with Mulroney, or does it go back long before that?

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I'm confused, what is the point of a post like this? You make a sexist remark, post-end it with /s and a pre-emptive defense like you expect to be chided, but why?

It was absolutely harmless, and honestly, attractive people get attention for being attractive. It's, like, literally how our brains are wired and probably didn't hurt her ascension. I knew nothing about Finland before she was elected. Now I always tune in to Finnish politics because it's neat seeing such a hot chick who knows how to party competently govern the country.

BFD, we don't need to whiteknight somebody pointing it out and honestly it'd be pretty weird to not mention it every now and then. Like, look at Trump. We've all made fun of how he looks. Conservatives campaigned on trying to diminish Trudeau just because he's handsome (nice hair). The basis of political cartoons centre around how politicians look.

The Finnish leader is hot. Guess you didn't notice? Maybe you did, but we're not allowed to say it?

I even disagree that it's sexist. She's a good looking woman Cro finds attractive and made a little post with word play. I don't think anybody on CalgaryPuck needs to get their feelings hurt on her behalf. Sometimes we can still call a hot chick hot without being sexist. Chill, holy cow.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Sliver

It was absolutely harmless, and honestly, attractive people get attention for being attractive. It's, like, literally how our brains are wired and probably didn't hurt her ascension. I knew nothing about Finland before she was elected. Now I always tune in to Finnish politics because it's neat seeing such a hot chick who knows how to party competently govern the country.

BFD, we don't need to whiteknight somebody pointing it out and honestly it'd be pretty weird to not mention it every now and then. Like, look at Trump. We've all made fun of how he looks. Conservatives campaigned on trying to diminish Trudeau just because he's handsome (nice hair). The basis of political cartoons centre around how politicians look.

The Finnish leader is hot. Guess you didn't notice? Maybe you did, but we're not allowed to say it?

I even disagree that it's sexist. She's a good looking woman Cro finds attractive and made a little post with word play. I don't think anybody on CalgaryPuck needs to get their feelings hurt on her behalf. Sometimes we can still call a hot chick hot without being sexist. Chill, holy cow.

Might need to turn that around on yourself, I wasn't offended or bent out of shape by CroFlames post. I just wondered what the point of that remark was, it just seems a little childish

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Might need to turn that around on yourself, I wasn't offended or bent out of shape by CroFlames post. I just wondered what the point of that remark was, it just seems a little childish

PepsiFree posted yesterday that he likes seeing men ride their bikes in spandex more than your average fellow (or something to that effect). It made me laugh. Was it sexist against males for objectifying them to you?

I think that's the point of a post like CroFlame's. To give us a chuckle. I just don't understand calling a guy out on a harmless joke and then suggesting he's sexist. Like, let's be all in on equality without losing our sense of mild fun.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I'm confused, what is the point of a post like this? You make a sexist remark, post-end it with /s and a pre-emptive defense like you expect to be chided, but why?

First of all it’s not sexist. At all.

Secondly the “point” was a play on words.

Yes I put /S because I know a white knight would say something despite it being a benign comment.

Sorry you are so confused.

[bc-chris]

i had to google what /s meant

i'm old

[activeStick]

Macron arrived in China today.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1643605496987889666

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Sliver

It was absolutely harmless, and honestly, attractive people get attention for being attractive. It's, like, literally how our brains are wired and probably didn't hurt her ascension. I knew nothing about Finland before she was elected. Now I always tune in to Finnish politics because it's neat seeing such a hot chick who knows how to party competently govern the country.

Besides agreeing with your post, I wanted to clarify something:

Are you saying she can "competently govern the country"?

Or that she "knows how to party competently"?

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Macron arrived in China today.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1643605496987889666

Probably just wanted to leave stinky riot filled paris anyway