[Game Takes] Hawks 4 Flames 3

[Bingo]

Hawks 4 Flames 3

So many stories
- Another night with a Flame goaltender that doesn't stop the big one
- Yet the team turns it over all night and doesn't help him at all.
- Solid 2nd is erased by a terrible start to the third.
- Kadri blames lazy turnover on bad ice

[Dion]

They were talking on the Fan about the goaltending and they figured Markstom was tired from Sutter playing him too much. Play Valdar tonight was the suggestion and go back to Marky in the Peg.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by Dion

They were talking on the Fan about the goaltending and they figured Markstom was tired from Sutter playing him too much. Play Valdar tonight was the suggestion and go back to Marky in the Peg.

People still listen to the fan outside of the actual game anymore?

[Strange Brew]

Thanks for the writeup Bingo. Appreciate all of these.

I have nothing to add on Kadri, maybe Lanny the poster said it best when describing something else. It was an "abysmal display".

Huberdeau is coming on but honestly it is too little, too late for this season. This isn't some young player gaining confidence over time. Flames needed him to take over stretches of games and be a difference maker. At his best, he has been noticeably good but not someone who changes the complexion of the game. He needs to be way better for longer stretches next year. He should have a field day against a team like Chicago, the way other players in his tax bracket do.

Hopefully this pisses them off for tomorrow night and they destroy the Jets.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Just play the game and let the better possession game wear it down.

Can’t afford to wait it out when you give up 3 gimmes on unforced errors

The pundits are starting to get it. Holding a team a shot less for 12 minutes then giving up free passes to the net for 2 quick GA, you just can’t do that.

It’s the story this season

The xGF/xGA stuff, the goaltending? Not for me. It’s the breakdowns that drive the results outside statistical norms

Time and time and time again. It’s not normal, it’s not like every team.

Chicago didn’t win the game, Calgary lost it.

Kadri has single-handedly cost the team in enough 1 goal losses that it may cost them a playoff spot

[iamca]

I can’t believe Sutter believes this:

“It’s like the last game of the year for us, way different than anything else,” Sutter said. “And Marky has been really, really good for us for quite a while. So he’s earned that right, for sure.”###
Sutter backed off a little on the implication that Markstrom would definitely start post-game on Tuesday. But in the morning, he’d instructed the media to do their homework on the last time Markstrom started back-to-back games. It’s true that he played on March 6 and 7 and came away with wins against the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild. #
And in the two biggest games of the year, Sutter was going with his guy.##
“When it’s Game 7, you want your ace,” Sutter said. ##

��

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by iamca

I can’t believe Sutter believes this:

“It’s like the last game of the year for us, way different than anything else,” Sutter said. “And Marky has been really, really good for us for quite a while. So he’s earned that right, for sure.”###
Sutter backed off a little on the implication that Markstrom would definitely start post-game on Tuesday. But in the morning, he’d instructed the media to do their homework on the last time Markstrom started back-to-back games. It’s true that he played on March 6 and 7 and came away with wins against the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild. #
And in the two biggest games of the year, Sutter was going with his guy.##
“When it’s Game 7, you want your ace,” Sutter said. ##

��

Except your ace has a rubber arm from being played too often down the stretch.

[flames_fan_down_under]

What a season between the pipes … simply amazing we are still charting a playoff spot in early April.

Kind of how I feel too. Incredible that despite the truly abysmal goal tending this team is still fighting for a chance in the playoffs.

Thanks for the write up, I always read them and value your perspective.

[KenHouston]

Bad ice- wow. No accountability from this player. If he is one of our key players then it explains why we aren’t gonna be in the playoffs

[Samonadreau]

Agree with the commsnt about Zadorov. Love the passion he plays with, but hes always taking himself out of the play with ill-timed pinches and hits in the neutral zone.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Agree with the commsnt about Zadorov. Love the passion he plays with, but hes always taking himself out of the play with ill-timed pinches and hits in the neutral zone.

A less than perfect decision

But it is a bad decision with no consequence, if Kadri does not gift them the puck. Under no pressure

He was out of position, which makes Kadri’s nonchalant giveaway even more egregious

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Can’t afford to wait it out when you give up 3 gimmes on unforced errors

The pundits are starting to get it. Holding a team a shot less for 12 minutes then giving up free passes to the net for 2 quick GA, you just can’t do that.

It’s the story this season

The xGF/xGA stuff, the goaltending? Not for me. It’s the breakdowns that drive the results outside statistical norms

Time and time and time again. It’s not normal, it’s not like every team.

Chicago didn’t win the game, Calgary lost it.

Kadri has single-handedly cost the team in enough 1 goal losses that it may cost them a playoff spot

Breakdowns cause goals for all teams. That's what hockey is.

I can't stand the loose play either, drives me nuts, but there is just nothing to suggest Markstrom is facing a harder battle than goaltenders on other teams other than you just telling us it's a fact based on what you're seeing.

The current system measures shots from the areas near the net and how they got there.

They also measure the number of times each team give away the puck in 60 minutes.

All of that suggests Calgary gives up less, but is scored on more.

The goalie gets a share of that, and this season a pretty good share.

Stats ...

Giveaways/60 15th
Shots vs/60 3rd
Slots shots vs/60 5th
High Danger vs/60 4th

Top 5 in all suppression metrics and bottom of the barrel goaltending.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I know they are very good in shot suppression metrics. I agree. That’s not in dispute

It’s not just me, it’s a good number of the analysts that talk about this being the story of the Flames’ season. They talk about the breakdowns leading to grade A chances.

Sure they are average at raw number of giveaways. But nothing counts Zadorov being up in the NZ when Kadri gifts them a puck. Nothing counts Kadri being stripped resulting in a 2 on 1, where he cruises behind, watches the goal, and blames the ice. Those are highly unusual

In fact, holding a team shotless for a 20 percent chunk of the game is highly unusual as well, from a probability standpoint

You know that the actual probability of goals being scored on a breakaway are over 30 percent, right?

If you held a team to 10 shots and all were clear breakaways, you would expect from a good goalie 3.00 GAA and .700 sv%. Your shot suppression metrics would be great too. That would not actually be bottom of the barrel goaltending, but you would call it that.

There is literally nothing in the stats that account for Z stepping up and being out of position (which will only be significant if they lose possession) while Kadri simply hands the puck to the opponent down low. I assume we agree on this. The stats you refer to do not account for defensive posture.


That 12 minute stretch with no shots makes the goalie look a lot worse when Kadri nonchalantly turns it over to create a 2 on 1, and he doesn’t bust his ass to try and break it up

I think it is funny, we have gone over it many times. The stats you are referring to suggest they are doing a great job. They show that they are in fact good at volume shot suppression.

Their break downs are not like every team. They are more frequent and worse. The system is effective in terms of possession and suppression. The breakdowns are bafflingly egregious. I don’t know why you can’t accept that, and why you keep pointing to data that doesn’t measure what I am talking about, like it refutes it

Kadri’s one hand push of the puck, you think all teams and all players do that? His game stood out among all players last night.

You blame the goaltending and point to the stats. To me, they reflect a team that, defensively, is penny wise and pound foolish.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hawks 4 Flames 3

So many stories
- Another night with a Flame goaltender that doesn't stop the big one
- Yet the team turns it over all night and doesn't help him at all.
- Solid 2nd is erased by a terrible start to the third.
- Kadri blames lazy turnover on bad ice

Would I be wrong to assume you will be relieved upon completing the 82nd Game Takes thread of this season? This has been a season to remember for the wrong reasons.

[jlh2640]

I will say this, I was madder at Kadri on the 2nd turnover goal, where he stood around, did not move his feet, or have any sense of giving a crap. The first one was also bad, but I can see him thinking the forechecker was going to hit him so he thought he would be smart and one-hand chip it to Stecher. The problem is, the ice was snowy back there, and the player read what he was doing and did not go for the hit. That stupid play cannot happen though.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

I will say this, I was madder at Kadri on the 2nd turnover goal, where he stood around, did not move his feet, or have any sense of giving a crap. The first one was also bad, but I can see him thinking the forechecker was going to hit him so he thought he would be smart and one-hand chip it to Stecher. The problem is, the ice was snowy back there, and the player read what he was doing and did not go for the hit. That stupid play cannot happen though.

It was two turnovers on the first goal. The first was a soft play at the offensive bluelune when Dube was already going to the net he had to stop and turn while Chicago just took the puck and went down ice. Now he just puts a weak play behind the net to turn it over again nonchalant as they said.

You would think after making two blunders in a big game like that with the game still close enough you would come back with some jam instead he decided to quit.

Its ironic we brought him in to take the load off Backlund and Lindholm and Backlund has had to step up even more this season while Kadri floats around collecting his retirement paycheque.

[jlh2640]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It was two turnovers on the first goal. The first was a soft play at the offensive bluelune when Dube was already going to the net he had to stop and turn while Chicago just took the puck and went down ice. Now he just puts a weak play behind the net to turn it over again nonchalant as they said.

You would think after making two blunders in a big game like that with the game still close enough you would come back with some jam instead he decided to quit.

Its ironic we brought him in to take the load off Backlund and Lindholm and Backlund has had to step up even more this season while Kadri floats around collecting his retirement paycheque.

Kadri started well, but man he has been soft and unnoticeable most games since November really

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Their break downs are not like every team. They are more frequent and worse. The system is effective in terms of possession and suppression. The breakdowns are bafflingly egregious. I don’t know why you can’t accept that, and why you keep pointing to data that doesn’t measure what I am talking about, like it refutes it

Kadri’s one hand push of the puck, you think all teams and all players do that? His game stood out among all players last night.

You blame the goaltending and point to the stats. To me, they reflect a team that, defensively, is penny wise and pound foolish.

I'm in the middle of this argument. Stats to me tell a pretty damning story about goaltending season long. In a game like last night, for me, not as much. For me, notwithstanding shot suppression overall, two goals were almost unstoppable (the first goal which was a laser post and in and the wide open backdoor pass on the third goal). And the other two, while saveable, were not just typical good chances, they were chances handed on a silver platter. I mean, Markstrom has to be deep in his net on that first Kadri giveaway. The last goal was the worst on him though I still think it was tipped off the release.

So how do we account for those? I guess we don't on a season wide basis.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I know they are very good in shot suppression metrics. I agree. That’s not in dispute

It’s not just me, it’s a good number of the analysts that talk about this being the story of the Flames’ season. They talk about the breakdowns leading to grade A chances.

We just keep having the same argument.

Now you're bringing in untold analysts to back up a theory that has no factual data.

Every team turns the puck over. When they do they end up with either shots in close (they're counted) or odd man chances that create high danger chances (they're counted).

There is no evidence that the Flames have found a way to be higher danger than high danger.

And even if they were ... lets give you that for fun for a second ... do you really think they've found a way to be so much worse in generating high danger against than the average high danger chance that it excuses goaltenders that are ranked 29th in the league in save percentage?

Seriously?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm in the middle of this argument. Stats to me tell a pretty damning story about goaltending season long. In a game like last night, for me, not as much. For me, notwithstanding shot suppression overall, two goals were almost unstoppable (the first goal which was a laser post and in and the wide open backdoor pass on the third goal). And the other two, while saveable, were not just typical good chances, they were chances handed on a silver platter. I mean, Markstrom has to be deep in his net on that first Kadri giveaway. The last goal was the worst on him though I still think it was tipped off the release.

So how do we account for those? I guess we don't on a season wide basis.

IMO a person shouldn't get too caught up going goal by goal. Should have stopped this one, could never have stopped this one etc. I guess I get why that is appealing in a small sample

But Markstrom has faced thousands of shots this year and I have yet to see a metric that supports a view that his performance is better than what it appears. He is poor in all metrics last I looked. Save percentage, ES save percentage, high danger, medium danger, low danger save percentage.