2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[ComixZone]

I find it odd that in a competitive league, some people seem to think that having the best players in that league isn’t a significantly better strategy than over-paying 29+ year old players that other teams have decided to let leave for financial reasons.

I guess what the Flames do isn’t broken (it is), so they shouldn’t change and should just keep doing what they’re doing.

Winning two playoff rounds in the modern era is a staggering amount of success. Best course forward is to look up to a team that was built on a 2nd round pick selected back in 2003. Dillon Dube is our Patrice Bergeron.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I find it odd that in a competitive league, some people seem to think that having the best players in that league isn’t a significantly better strategy than over-paying 29+ year old players that other teams have decided to let leave for financial reasons.

I guess what the Flames do isn’t broken (it is), so they shouldn’t change and should just keep doing what they’re doing.

It’s because there are no guarantees either way. You could get lucky and get a generational player, or it could go the other way and you could completely suck for the next 10 years.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I find it odd that in a competitive league, some people seem to think that having the best players in that league isn’t a significantly better strategy than over-paying 29+ year old players that other teams have decided to let leave for financial reasons.

I find it odd that you made up a type of person that doesn’t exist in real life only to claim you find them odd.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

It’s because there are no guarantees either way. You could get lucky and get a generational player, or it could go the other way and you could completely suck for the next 10 years.

Hi, they’ve sucked for 17 of the last 20 years doing what they’re doing.

Why not try a different approach? Rebuilding through the top of the draft in a targeted way is no guarantee of being bad for the next 10 years - as like you say, there are no guarantees.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I find it odd that in a competitive league, some people seem to think that having the best players in that league isn’t a significantly better strategy than over-paying 29+ year old players that other teams have decided to let leave for financial reasons.

I guess what the Flames do isn’t broken (it is), so they shouldn’t change and should just keep doing what they’re doing.

Winning two playoff rounds in the modern era is a staggering amount of success. Best course forward is to look up to a team that was built on a 2nd round pick selected back in 2003. Dillon Dube is our Patrice Bergeron.

Taking the counter argument to the extreme, and then criticizing that extreme, is no way to make a case.

Some people are hell bent on the idea that you have to have top 2 or top 3 players. But it isn't an individual game, it's a team game. And most importantly, it's a team game with a VERY TIGHT cap. And there are an infinite number of ways to spend that cap space. There is no reason why it isn't just as valid to build a team with stronger depth, or build a team that is more star-focused.

Both are valid, but what matters is being efficient with that cap space. That's what REALLY matters: having some key players on cheap contracts. In other words, ELCs.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Hi, they’ve sucked for 17 of the last 20 years doing what they’re doing.

Why not try a different approach? Rebuilding through the top of the draft in a targeted way is no guarantee of being bad for the next 10 years - as like you say, there are no guarantees.

Obviously that approach was tried 10 years ago when Iginla and Bouwmeester were shipped out.
We drafted something like 6, then 4 then made the playoffs, then 6 again. That means they were trying to rebuild. But it’s actually hard to be dead last in the NHL, just like it’s hard to be 1st. The flames best player out of all that came out of the 4th round. It’s not as simple as just sucking, you still need luck to go along with it.

[Enoch Root]

And if you want more than 1 top 3 pick, you need to REALLY suck, for several years. Even then, you might get a Lafreniere or an RNH, instead of a MacKinnon

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I find it odd that in a competitive league, some people seem to think that having the best players in that league isn’t a significantly better strategy than over-paying 29+ year old players that other teams have decided to let leave for financial reasons.

I guess what the Flames do isn’t broken (it is), so they shouldn’t change and should just keep doing what they’re doing.

Winning two playoff rounds in the modern era is a staggering amount of success. Best course forward is to look up to a team that was built on a 2nd round pick selected back in 2003. Dillon Dube is our Patrice Bergeron.

Drafting well is always better than overpaying to sign free agents. The debate is whether tanking to get higher draft picks improves outcomes.

The Oilers tanked hard for a decade (literally the statistically worst decade of any team in NHL history) and had four first overalls and six top four picks between 2010 and 2016, including arguably the second best (or at least second most offensively skilled) player to ever play the game. In spite of that, following the tank model far more closely than should even be possible (and which will never be repeated due to changes in the draft lottery), the Oilers won an amazing one more playoff series than the Flames, even with the direct assistance of the league in changing playoff officiating to explicitly favour the Oilers. And that includes barely beating the severely depleted Kings team last year, which any playoff team could have easily done. I know that E=NG, but doesn't that mean that following their example is also NG?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And if you want more than 1 top 3 pick, you need to REALLY suck, for several years. Even then, you might get a Lafreniere or an RNH, instead of a MacKinnon

Yeah timing is very important to be sure.

Drafting 6th in 2013 and 4th in 2014 is a good example of not being bad enough in good enough years.

There are absolutely no guarantees, but you have to give yourself a chance at success - and without those top picks you aren’t giving yourself that chance.

I firmly believe that you need a number of top-end picks (1st-4th) in strong draft years, and then from that point on you only have to be one of the best managed teams in all of hockey. That’s how you win the Stanley Cup. Being one of the best managed teams without those draft picks doesn’t get the job done, and simply making those picks while not being one of the best managed teams also leaves you in the middle of nowhere.

Step 1: Make multiple top picks.
Step 2: Be one of the best managed teams in the league

Do Step 1 and Step 2 and you have a chance at being a contender.

[flamesgod]

Look at Tampa. Yes they have some top picks. But let’s be honest, their MVP’s are Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Vas. One drafted 3rd, the rest absolute gems compared to where they were drafted.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And if you want more than 1 top 3 pick, you need to REALLY suck, for several years. Even then, you might get a Lafreniere or an RNH, instead of a MacKinnon

Even Colorado needed more than McKinnon though. You could easily argue it's Makar at 4th OA stirring the drink

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah timing is very important to be sure.

Drafting 6th in 2013 and 4th in 2014 is a good example of not being bad enough in good enough years.

There are absolutely no guarantees, but you have to give yourself a chance at success - and without those top picks you aren’t giving yourself that chance.

I firmly believe that you need a number of top-end picks (1st-4th) in strong draft years, and then from that point on you only have to be one of the best managed teams in all of hockey. That’s how you win the Stanley Cup. Being one of the best managed teams without those draft picks doesn’t get the job done, and simply making those picks while not being one of the best managed teams also leaves you in the middle of nowhere.

Step 1: Make multiple top picks.
Step 2: Be one of the best managed teams in the league

Do Step 1 and Step 2 and you have a chance at being a contender.

I hear you, but the Flames were put in a very tough spot this summer. If Gaudreau and Tkachuk are back this year the Flames would’ve been a top team again this year. They’ve been slowly building through the draft and trade ever since Iginla was traded. Imo the Flames drafting is quite good now. They’ve hit on a lot of picks outside of those top spots. I think we can agree, that’s what is needed. I don’t blame them for continuing to push this summer despite the challenges they were facing. It would be pretty hard just to tear it down after putting together such a strong team. How many teams could lose 219 pts between 2 players and still be competitive, despite the replacements underachieving big time? If Huberdeau bounces back next year, it changes everything. Personally I’d prefer they stay the course.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Drafting well is always better than overpaying to sign free agents. The debate is whether tanking to get higher draft picks improves outcomes.

The Oilers tanked hard for a decade (literally the statistically worst decade of any team in NHL history) and had four first overalls and six top four picks between 2010 and 2016, including arguably the second best (or at least second most offensively skilled) player to ever play the game. In spite of that, following the tank model far more closely than should even be possible (and which will never be repeated due to changes in the draft lottery), the Oilers won an amazing one more playoff series than the Flames, even with the direct assistance of the league in changing playoff officiating to explicitly favour the Oilers. And that includes barely beating the severely depleted Kings team last year, which any playoff team could have easily done. I know that E=NG, but doesn't that mean that following their example is also NG?

No, because while the Oilers tanked they were still one of the worst run organizations in the league - and no picks will overcome that.

You need the picks and you need to be one of the best run organizations.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

I hear you, but the Flames were put in a very tough spot this summer. If Gaudreau and Tkachuk are back this year the Flames would’ve been a top team again this year. They’ve been slowly building through the draft and trade ever since Iginla was traded. Imo the Flames drafting is quite good now. They’ve hit on a lot of picks outside of those top spots. I think we can agree, that’s what is needed. I don’t blame them for continuing to push this summer despite the challenges they were facing. It would be pretty hard just to tear it down after putting together such a strong team. How many teams could lose 219 pts between 2 players and still be competitive, despite the replacements underachieving big time? If Huberdeau bounces back next year, it changes everything. Personally I’d prefer they stay the course.

I don’t actually blame anyone for the path taken last year. It was fun for fans, and it was trying to put lipstick on an absolute hog of a situation.

The mistakes that led up to it should be learning lessons though.

1. Lock your young talent up long-term. Even if it means you “overpaid” them - if you believe in the player, better to invest your salary cap there than have money to foolishly spend in free agency.

2. This is a business. You can believe you’ll get a deal done all you want - but you don’t have a deal unless the deal is done. Flames never should have walked Johnny to free agency - the mistake was made the summer previous.

I too think the Flames have drafted quite well considering where they’ve made picks, and it’s one of the key reasons why I think this team could rebuild (under Treliving) incredibly well. Give Tree some prime drafting spots and a bunch of extra picks from trading off players on soon to be expiring deals (Toffoli, Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev being the keys) and I think he’ll build one hell of a team.

I don’t have the same faith in this roster as it’s constructed - and again, this team cannot go into next season with Lindholm and Hanifin as pending UFAs - ditto on Toffoli.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No, because while the Oilers tanked they were still one of the worst run organizations in the league - and no picks will overcome that.

You need the picks and you need to be one of the best run organizations.

And you need to be a market where players want to play, where they will sign a UFA contract for $2M less than they would elsewhere. No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup in the cap era, but the Oilers have come closest because players want to sign lowball short-term contracts with them to play with MAvi and boost their point totals so they can get more on their next contract.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah timing is very important to be sure.

Drafting 6th in 2013 and 4th in 2014 is a good example of not being bad enough in good enough years.

There are absolutely no guarantees, but you have to give yourself a chance at success - and without those top picks you aren’t giving yourself that chance.

I firmly believe that you need a number of top-end picks (1st-4th) in strong draft years, and then from that point on you only have to be one of the best managed teams in all of hockey. That’s how you win the Stanley Cup. Being one of the best managed teams without those draft picks doesn’t get the job done, and simply making those picks while not being one of the best managed teams also leaves you in the middle of nowhere.

Step 1: Make multiple top picks.
Step 2: Be one of the best managed teams in the league

Do Step 1 and Step 2 and you have a chance at being a contender.

And that requires sucking for 8 to 10 years. Minimum. It takes a few years just to get to the bottom. Then if you want multiple top picks, you have to TOTALLY suck for several years. Then you have to rebuild your way back.

With no guarantees of success, that is a LOT to ask. Easy for a casual fan who will only watch when it suits them. Much more difficult for a BUSINESS that has to sell tickets every year.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No, because while the Oilers tanked they were still one of the worst run organizations in the league - and no picks will overcome that.

You need the picks and you need to be one of the best run organizations.

AND you need luck

Simply tanking, does not get you anything

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And that requires sucking for 8 to 10 years. Minimum. It takes a few years just to get to the bottom. Then if you want multiple top picks, you have to TOTALLY suck for several years. Then you have to rebuild your way back.

With no guarantees of success, that is a LOT to ask. Easy for a casual fan who will only watch when it suits them. Much more difficult for a BUSINESS that has to sell tickets every year.

Why I think the Flames are well positioned to rebuild right now:

1. Plethora of expiring contracts on some good players. Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Backlund, Zadorov, and Toffoli would all help load the team with a significant number of extra picks to stoke the rebuild. Trade (and retain $ on those trades) and then don’t spend free agent dollars on back-filling.

2. Subtracting 4-6 of those players in the next 10 months (and at least 3 this summer) would massively hurt this bubble team. If you subtract those players, particularly Backlund, Lindholm, and Hanifin this summer - this team ends up in the bottom-10 next season.

I’m a season ticket holder and I’m looking for reasons to stay one, and them entering a rebuild is probably the only thing that does that for me. We’ve seen them spin their tires on their current approach - I’d love to see them change it. Like you said, it would be a tough sell and I think they’d need to put a face on it to keep some interest. I think it would have to be someone like Connie or Jarome or someone like that - or keep Darryl if he’s into it (and I think his pressers this year could lead us to believe he would be part of a rebuild).

Another reason why now makes sense? The arena. The Flames are going to want to be a team on the upswing in 4 years. Now is the time to start laying the groundwork.

One of the reasons I bang this rebuild drum so hard is because I actually think the organization is now in a good enough state that they could actually do it and be successful at it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Why I think the Flames are well positioned to rebuild right now:

1. Plethora of expiring contracts on some good players. Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Backlund, Zadorov, and Toffoli would all help load the team with a significant number of extra picks to stoke the rebuild. Trade (and retain $ on those trades) and then don’t spend free agent dollars on back-filling.

2. Subtracting 4-6 of those players in the next 10 months (and at least 3 this summer) would massively hurt this bubble team. If you subtract those players, particularly Backlund, Lindholm, and Hanifin this summer - this team ends up in the bottom-10 next season.

I’m a season ticket holder and I’m looking for reasons to stay one, and them entering a rebuild is probably the only thing that does that for me. We’ve seen them spin their tires on their current approach - I’d love to see them change it. Like you said, it would be a tough sell and I think they’d need to put a face on it to keep some interest. I think it would have to be someone like Connie or Jarome or someone like that - or keep Darryl if he’s into it (and I think his pressers this year could lead us to believe he would be part of a rebuild).

Another reason why now makes sense? The arena. The Flames are going to want to be a team on the upswing in 4 years. Now is the time to start laying the groundwork.

One of the reasons I bang this rebuild drum so hard is because I actually think the organization is now in a good enough state that they could actually do it and be successful at it.

I am a STH and I am on board with a rebuild as well, partially due to the timing of an arena, I just think the people arguing for it, like it is a cure-all, are way off base.

[PepsiFree]

One problem with a rebuild is our goaltending situation. Wolf is ready, and he’s insanely good. I think that, even if you decide to move a bunch of guys, we’re going to find ourselves in one of two situations:

1. Wolf is good enough that we stay afloat in the 8-12 range of draft picks
2. Wolf somehow doesn’t pan out, which leaves us with absolutely nothing in net for when we’re trying to come out of a rebuild

Basically, if we do end up in the 1-4 range a couple times, it means our younger guys are significantly worse than we thought and we have significantly further to go.