2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, sure, but there has to be a little more correlation between when the pick happened and the cup. Stamkos was drafted in 08 and Hedman in 09. It took them 10 years to win a cup after that.

The Flames do have a top 5 drafted player on the team right now, of course.

I don't know if more correlation is needed. It has always been extremely hard to measure the objective impact of a single player on a roster.

Until a team wins in the cap era without playing with a player they drafted in the top 5, then I am willing to continue towing this line. It hasn't happened and is unlikely to happen this year. Is it hard to prove the correlation? Yes, but the fact remains that teams just don't win the cup without this attribute.

[Monahammer]

To be clear, I am not saying that tanking is a guaranteed road to the cup. There are clearly many examples where this is demonstrably not the case. Nor am i saying that this should be used as the justification to sell assets and tank for a bit.

I am just pointing out that we lack one of the defining criteria of cup winners.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I don't know if more correlation is needed. It has always been extremely hard to measure the objective impact of a single player on a roster.

Until a team wins in the cap era without playing with a player they drafted in the top 5, then I am willing to continue towing this line. It hasn't happened and is unlikely to happen this year. Is it hard to prove the correlation? Yes, but the fact remains that teams just don't win the cup without this attribute.

Toeing.

I guess the good news is that the Flames have a top 3 OA pick in the lineup (and two 5s)

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Toeing.

I guess the good news is that the Flames have a top 3 OA pick in the lineup (and two 5s)

You can spell check but can't read. The team must draft the player. Acquiring others doesn't seem to work.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

You can spell check but can't read. The team must draft the player. Acquiring others doesn't seem to work.

But why? A 3OA is a 3OA. And the two top 5s were obtained pretty early in their careers.

[Robbob]

A lot of those teams on that list, I would argue, it is the diamond is the rough after the top 5 picks that put them over the top.
TB who were able to Kucherov, Pointe, Vasilevsky, Palat, Killorn and Cirelli from their late picks.

Something similar could be said for the Hawks. Although they were also fortunate to win Kane in the draft lotto.

It really is about getting a game breaker. You could probably look at players like Kucherov and in a redraft they are arguably the best player in the draft. You get a player like that in the later rounds and it is like drafting a player in the first few picks.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

A lot of those teams on that list, I would argue, it is the diamond is the rough after the top 5 picks that put them over the top.
TB who were able to Kucherov, Pointe, Vasilevsky, Palat, Killorn and Cirelli from their late picks.

Something similar could be said for the Hawks. Although they were also fortunate to win Kane in the draft lotto.

It really is about getting a game breaker. You could probably look at players like Kucherov and in a redraft they are arguably the best player in the draft. You get a player like that in the later rounds and it is like drafting a player in the first few picks.

Ouch - could have been a Flame.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Ouch - could have been a Flame.

You could do that with everyone of those players. I think the one that also hurts in the Kucherov, as he was legit on the radar. He is arguably the best player to come out of that draft.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

You could do that with everyone of those players. I think the one that also hurts in the Kucherov, as he was legit on the radar. He is arguably the best player to come out of that draft.

Vasilevsky hurts more because the Flames traded down from his spot just to pick a guy ranking in the 40s. Or they could have had Hertl, Teravainen or Wilson, if you want to speculate they wouldn't have picked Vasilevsky anyway.

I don't really worry too much about stuff like Kucherov. Calgary has had a few "everyone missed that guy" as well - Theo, Gaudreau, Newy, Titov, Makarov, Reichel, Hull, Suter, Loob. But Janko was just such a self-own.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

No franchise has won a cup in the cap era without a top 5 pick playing for them, with the exception of 1. It's not a matter of debate, and people did debate what effect the pick had on the team (Boston), but the fact is that no team that has won a cup in the cap era did so without a top 4 pick that team made on the roster.
The one team that did win a cup without it's own top 4 pick playing was the 2008 Detroit redwings. This team at this time is relatively known as being one of the best drafted teams of all time, with players like Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Zetterberg coming from late rounds.

Here's the list, and I've added the player(s) for you.

2022: Colorado Avalanche, Coach Jared Bednar ; Mackinnon, Makar
2021: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper ; Hedman, Stamkos
2020: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper; Hedman, Stamkos
2019: St. Louis Blues, Coach Craig Berube; Alex Pietrangelo
2018: Washington Capitals, Coach Barry Trotz; Ovechkin
2017: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Mike Sullivan; Crosby, Malkin
2016: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Mike Sullivan; Crosby, Malkin
2015: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2014: Los Angeles Kings, Coach Darryl Sutter; Drew Doughty
2013: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2012: Los Angeles Kings, Coach Darryl Sutter; Drew Doughty
2011: Boston Bruins, Coach Claude Julien; TYLER SEGUIN <---
2010: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2009: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Dan Bylsma; Crosby, Malkin
2008: Detroit Red Wings, Coach Mike Babcock; LIDSTROM, DATSYUK, ZETTERBERG
2007: Anaheim Ducks, Coach Randy Carlyle; Bobby Ryan
2006: Carolina Hurricanes, Coach Peter Laviolette; Eric Staal

Every team in the league has a top 4 pick on their roster.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Every team in the league has a top 4 pick on their roster.

Apparently you need to draft them yourselves. I’m not sure why. It’d make sense if the argument is you need to take advantage while they’re cheap RFAs but that wasn’t the case with TB.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Apparently you need to draft them yourselves. I’m not sure why. It’d make sense if the argument is you need to take advantage while they’re cheap RFAs but that wasn’t the case with TB.

What if you draft some yourself (Bennett) but then trade them and acquire others?

It is amazing how some people are unable to interpret stats (directed at Monahammer, not you)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

What if you draft some yourself (Bennett) but then trade them and acquire others?

It is amazing how some people are unable to interpret stats (directed at Monahammer, not you)

Obviously there’s no magic formula. I mean Fla drafted Barkov (2OA), Huberdeau (3OA), Ekblad (1OA), plus Tippett (10OA) and Lundell (12OA). AND they added top 5 picks in Bennett, Reinhart, Juolevi (and Thornton but we won’t count him). And they got embarrassed by TB in round two.

Oh, and TBF I can’t interpret stats to save my life.

[PepsiFree]

I also don’t know why Boston counts when they traded for the Seguin pick. It counts if you trade for the pick but not if you trade for the player picked? Not buying it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I also don’t know why Boston counts when they traded for the Seguin pick. It counts if you trade for the pick but not if you trade for the player picked? Not buying it.

And Seguin only played 13 post season games that season (he did pretty well for a rookie).

The biggest contributors on that team were Bergeron, Krejci, Chara and Lucic. And goofy Thomas.

[butterfly]

This logic proves once and for all that you can't win the Stanley Cup without a Canadian player on your team. Show me where it's ever been done!

[flamesgod]

Stop it, you’re destroying the narrative being put forth!

[Macindoc]

I think the more significant thing is that a Canadian team hasn't won in the cap era. The draft is a lottery, but when established star players will sign with your team for less money (or refuse to sign with any other team), it's an advantage that's almost impossible to overcome. And in the past 3 years, the Cup winners have also been able to take advantage of LTIR, placing highly-paid players (funny how it's never the players on league minimum) on LTIR and acquiring replacement players who they couldn't otherwise fit under the cap and then play both the injured players AND their replacements in the playoffs.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And Seguin only played 13 post season games that season (he did pretty well for a rookie).

The biggest contributors on that team were Bergeron, Krejci, Chara and Lucic. And goofy Thomas.

Seguin was a scratch the first couple rounds and part of the Kessel trade.

Also:
The biggest contributors on that team were Bergeron (2nd round), Krejci (2nd round), Chara (FA) and Lucic (2nd round). And goofy Thomas.

Marchard was also a 3rd round pick and was 3rd in scoring for them.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Seguin was a scratch the first couple rounds and part of the Kessel trade.

Also:
The biggest contributors on that team were Bergeron (2nd round), Krejci (2nd round), Chara (FA) and Lucic (2nd round). And goofy Thomas.

Marchard was also a 3rd round pick and was 3rd in scoring for them.

Marchand was indeed 3rd in the POs. Regular season he was 7th (Seguin was 12th).