[PGT] Flames 5 Ducks 1

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Strongly disagree and we can just leave it at that because it’s objective.

Subjective?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Well they're being asked to carry the play. Seems like a good plan.

Sutter is frustrating me too, but we can't just ignore all the stats that say the Flames are a competitive team on a night to night basis pretty much all season.

Are they really carrying the play? Yes, they generate a lot of shots, making them advanced stat darlings, but they are rarely dangerous. You could say they have the territorial advantage, except that territory is no more than 10 feet from the boards and a long way from good scoring areas.

You may think that those stats amount to something but I always harken back to the days of the Stampeders having better stats against the Eskimos in the 70s and trying to take solace from that. The reality was the Stampeders were a bad football team and the Eskimos were winning championships year-after-year. As my dad used to say, "stats are for losers and trophies are for winners."

I find the Flames are like the team that hits singles with two out but can't hit when you get a runner in scoring position. At the end of the game you look at the box score and see the Flames had 12 hits but got shut out, meanwhile the other team had six hits and scored five runs. Opportunity and quality matter which is why advanced stats are NOT telling the same story that the eyes see, results determine, and are indicative of in the standings.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Are they really carrying the play? Yes, they generate a lot of shots, making them advanced stat darlings, but they are rarely dangerous. You could say they have the territorial advantage, except that territory is no more than 10 feet from the boards and a long way from good scoring areas.

You may think that those stats amount to something but I always harken back to the days of the Stampeders having better stats against the Eskimos in the 70s and trying to take solace from that. The reality was the Stampeders were a bad football team and the Eskimos were winning championships year-after-year. As my dad used to say, "stats are for losers and trophies are for winners."

I find the Flames are like the team that hits singles with two out but can't hit when you get a runner in scoring position. At the end of the game you look at the box score and see the Flames had 12 hits but got shut out, meanwhile the other team had six hits and scored five runs. Opportunity and quality matter which is why advanced stats are NOT telling the same story that the eyes see, results determine, and are indicative of in the standings.

I think shot volume as a goal has it's issues for sure.

But this only shooting from the perimeter nonsense just has to stop. It's just not true.

Stats aren't for losers, they're for people that want to dig into the why and not just the final score.

The Flames are 10th in shots from home plate (slot) in the league. That's not a perimeter team.

They're middle of the pack in high danger so they're a little too predictable when in the slot.

But there is easily identifiable data to refute this perimeter team silliness.

[Mr.Coffee]

Somebody posted some stats the other day that showed shots from the slot of right in front of the net and Calgary ranked amongst the worst teams in the NHL. Sorry, can’t remember which thread but it was only a couple days ago.

When I watch them, I don’t see a lot of crashing the net, or driving to the net and looking for rebounds. I’m not saying it never happens, just not enough. Also, I think that insofar as effort, gaining the zone and getting the puck is one thing (from an effort perspective), but moving to the middle of the ice, crashing the net and creating havoc is another thing altogether and is the main reason / explanation for why the stats don’t translate to the results.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Somebody posted some stats the other day that showed shots from the slot of right in front of the net and Calgary ranked amongst the worst teams in the NHL. Sorry, can’t remember which thread but it was only a couple days ago.

When I watch them, I don’t see a lot of crashing the net, or driving to the net and looking for rebounds. I’m not saying it never happens, just not enough. Also, I think that insofar as effort, gaining the zone and getting the puck is one thing (from an effort perspective), but moving to the middle of the ice, crashing the net and creating havoc is another thing altogether and is the main reason / explanation for why the stats don’t translate to the results.

From Ziggy_Lidstrom picture.

Shot attempts 68.1(2)
Shots 35.6(1)
Perimeter shot attempts 43.7(2)
Slot shots 13.9(13)
Inner slot shots 6.4(21)
% Shot attempts from the slot 35.8%(30)

Se we are #2 in perimeter attempts and 30th for slot attempts.

So what gives? The Kings did the same thing they had lots of talent as well and struggled big time.

I think those stats show why the shooting % is slow.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Somebody posted some stats the other day that showed shots from the slot of right in front of the net and Calgary ranked amongst the worst teams in the NHL. Sorry, can’t remember which thread but it was only a couple days ago.

When I watch them, I don’t see a lot of crashing the net, or driving to the net and looking for rebounds. I’m not saying it never happens, just not enough. Also, I think that insofar as effort, gaining the zone and getting the puck is one thing (from an effort perspective), but moving to the middle of the ice, crashing the net and creating havoc is another thing altogether and is the main reason / explanation for why the stats don’t translate to the results.

Yes this! Every game I sit there wondering "why the hell won't they just crash the net? The other teams do that to us ALL THE TIME!" And the odd time they did crash the net, guess what , they score!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think shot volume as a goal has it's issues for sure.

But this only shooting from the perimeter nonsense just has to stop. It's just not true.

Except it is. You can trot out all the stats you want, but the reality is the Flames try and generate the vast majority of their offensive chances from the perimeter and at the point. It's loser hockey, as indicated by results.

Stats aren't for losers, they're for people that want to dig into the why and not just the final score.

Winners win, regardless of stats. Losers lose because they don't know how to win. They generate a lot of what appears to be positive stats but they can't get the job done when it matters while the winners can. That's what makes them losers.

I don't know what changed but when someone trotted out a bunch of stats to try and justify/excuse their team's poor results, that's what we always identified as loser behavior. Remember when we used to make fun of the dolts up in Edmonton who were using stats to prove Tyler Conklin was a better goaltender than Martin Brodeur? We laughed those fools off the board. Good times. Fast forward and what is happening here?

I think these advanced stats are a bit like a type of gaslighting , trying to make people question what their eyes and brains are telling them. People watch the games and know what is going on. They can see it. But then comes the advanced stats that basically says what you're seeing isn't accurate, even though the outcomes support what your eyes and brain are seeing. You know, the fans are pissed because the Flames play a really crappy brand of hockey, pinning themselves to the boards. We all see it. We all comment on it. We all see the outcomes of it. But then the advanced stats are tossed out there to claim the Flames are one of the best teams in the league in penetrating and generating opportunities from the paint. Sorry, doesn't hold up to what is happening right before our eyes.

The Flames are 10th in shots from home plate (slot) in the league. That's not a perimeter team.

How many shots is that compared to the ones from the perimeter? What's the percentage of each? What's the delta look like? Probably tells a different story.

They're middle of the pack in high danger so they're a little too predictable when in the slot.

Or the shot quality is extremely poor? This is why these stats are questionable. They lump everything into the same bucket, and then when it comes to determination of quality it becomes extremely subjective and inconsistent. When you have those two qualities affecting the data it becomes unreliable and junk data.

But there is easily identifiable data to refute this perimeter team silliness.

Unreliable data that does not actually support outcomes, but sure, it's data.

[Draug]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Pretty sure Sutter sees himself as the captain of this team.

Maybe he should communicate with the players more effectively then!

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

From Ziggy_Lidstrom picture.

Shot attempts 68.1(2)
Shots 35.6(1)
Perimeter shot attempts 43.7(2)
Slot shots 13.9(13)
Inner slot shots 6.4(21)
% Shot attempts from the slot 35.8%(30)

Se we are #2 in perimeter attempts and 30th for slot attempts.

So what gives? The Kings did the same thing they had lots of talent as well and struggled big time.

I think those stats show why the shooting % is slow.

Not quite 30th in slot attempts, though. 13th in slot attempts. Just 30th in the ratio of perimeter:slot.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

Not quite 30th in slot attempts, though. 13th in slot attempts. Just 30th in the ratio of perimeter:slot.

Exactly. Work ethic. Not willing to go to hard areas.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Exactly. Work ethic. Not willing to go to hard areas.

I disagree. This is how Darryl wants his team to play. This is what he had to say just weeks after being hired. Nothing has changed.

https://flamesnation.ca/news/darryl-...ositive-impact

“We’ve talked a lot about shot volume, to be quite honest,” Sutter said. “We don’t have the guys that are going to take over a game offensively like other teams in this division. More is better for us in terms of pucks at the net and pucks hitting the net as much as possible. We need more shots … I’m not worried about the percentages, I’m worried about more volume, more shots, more second and third opportunities.”

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I disagree. This is how Darryl wants his team to play. This is what he had to say just weeks after being hired. Nothing has changed.

https://flamesnation.ca/news/darryl-...ositive-impact

That is an eye opening and disturbing quote, you’re right.

[Burning Beard]

Wouldn't the "more second and third opportunities" imply that he wants them driving the net for said opportunities? I agree they aren't doing it enough but I'm doubting that is on the coaching and more on the roster make up.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Wouldn't the "more second and third opportunities" imply that he wants them driving the net for said opportunities? I agree they aren't doing it enough but I'm doubting that is on the coaching and more on the roster make up.

I agree, that means rebounds and greasy goals around the net. That definitely isn't happening this year, as too much of our o-zone play has been on the perimeter; we also haven't generated too much off the rush.

I also think back to the Dallas series when they were clogging up the middle and allowing the perimeter shots -- often the rebounds would go shooting past our players trying to crash the net. People were say Oettinger was letting out big rebounds but that was exactly what he was trying to do.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Except it is. You can trot out all the stats you want, but the reality is the Flames try and generate the vast majority of their offensive chances from the perimeter and at the point. It's loser hockey, as indicated by results.

Except it's not.

When two independent web sites count events from right in front of the goal and tally them up it takes more importance than you just saying it isn't so.

Sorry.

[SuperMatt18]

Taking too many shots from the outside doesn't mean they aren't generating chances from the slot too.

The ratio isn't good and that deflates their shooting percentage a bit.

But for most of the season they were still in the top 10 in slots from the high danger areas.

Where the team lacks IMO is less in terms of generating slots from the slot, and more in regards to actually creating motion in the slot with royal road passes. I would guess that their royal road passing stats are terrible.

And to me some of that is coaching. The team is afraid to make those risky passes that will create higher quality chances, but also risk losing possession.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I disagree. This is how Darryl wants his team to play. This is what he had to say just weeks after being hired. Nothing has changed.

https://flamesnation.ca/news/darryl-...ositive-impact

First of all we don't have McDavid not many guys take over a game that way.

We do have Huberdeau who can take over a game offensively and create chances.

Also the we need more shots on net when you are a perimeter those shots are hitting the goalie in the crest and swallowed for a whistle so there are no 2nd and 3rd opportunities.

Maybe if we tried to shoot at the goalies pads more and make him kick out rebounds but we are not lots of shots in gloves and chests.

They should be told to not shoot from the boards or angles but take the puck to the net and shoot closer to the goalie move the goalie and make that pass to make him move side to side.

If you are trying to protect a 1-0 lead in game 7 of the SCF final with 5 minutes left this strategy might work.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think shot volume as a goal has it's issues for sure.

But this only shooting from the perimeter nonsense just has to stop. It's just not true.

Stats aren't for losers, they're for people that want to dig into the why and not just the final score.

The Flames are 10th in shots from home plate (slot) in the league. That's not a perimeter team.

They're middle of the pack in high danger so they're a little too predictable when in the slot.

But there is easily identifiable data to refute this perimeter team silliness.

I think it's fair to say that they generate the bulk of their shots from the perimeter, and that most of their slot chances are rebounds from those perimeter shots. That can be a little dangerous, but the goalie doesn't move much with those if he's controlling his rebounds alright. What they do not seem to do is generate slot passes or "royal road" passes to move the goalie and create a higher danger shot in that area.

The philosophy is about creating enough bulk shots and chaos to score, but they never try any other strategy to score goals, which is why they are too predictable and easy to defend. It's also why the talent that was good elsewhere has not produced at the same level here.

I get that it should work a lot of the time, but the lack of variation in playing style means that the Flames become a team that is easy to scout and prepare for, and as long as you come somewhat close to matching their work ethic, you'll fair pretty well if you counter attack that strategy and create a few high danger chances. It's why the Flames continuously show good effort in terms of skating and battling, but do not have the results to match the effort.

As a coach in the modern NHL you must have a plan B strategy to win games, because it cannot be just about working hard. This is Sutter's major failing as a coach, and it's the only reason we lost to Edmonton in the playoffs last year. No ability to pivot. No ability to adjust. No ability to respond to adversity. His motto is just "work harder...it'll happen". Except it doesn't, and long-term, you lose more than you win.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Taking too many shots from the outside doesn't mean they aren't generating chances from the slot too.

The ratio isn't good and that deflates their shooting percentage a bit.

But for most of the season they were still in the top 10 in slots from the high danger areas.

Where the team lacks IMO is less in terms of generating slots from the slot, and more in regards to actually creating motion in the slot with royal road passes. I would guess that their royal road passing stats are terrible.

And to me some of that is coaching. The team is afraid to make those risky passes that will create higher quality chances, but also risk losing possession.

Ah, you beat me to it! Yes...this.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

First of all we don't have McDavid not many guys take over a game that way.

We do have Huberdeau who can take over a game offensively and create chances.

Also the we need more shots on net when you are a perimeter those shots are hitting the goalie in the crest and swallowed for a whistle so there are no 2nd and 3rd opportunities.

Maybe if we tried to shoot at the goalies pads more and make him kick out rebounds but we are not lots of shots in gloves and chests.

They should be told to not shoot from the boards or angles but take the puck to the net and shoot closer to the goalie move the goalie and make that pass to make him move side to side.

If you are trying to protect a 1-0 lead in game 7 of the SCF final with 5 minutes left this strategy might work.

Huberdeau can “take over a game”?

Really?