The Eternal Playoff Optimism Thread - Page 18 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Tsawwassen · 03-18-2023, 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I think Nashville is a problem and I still think the Kraken are in range. Calgary has a hope here but man we could be looking back at that Anaheim loss with huge regret. Still can’t believe they played so flat last Friday night, unbelievable.

If they make it, it will be one of the most nail biting finishes ever for the Flames which is in itself pretty fun. So I’m really hoping they make a good run of it here. Never know, with Markstrom returning to form they have the potential to.

The Oilers are also within range, they're only a point up on the Kraken.

MrMike · 03-18-2023, 06:57 AM

So do we cheer for Nashville over Winnipeg today? A goalie fight between Hellybuck and Saros, suspending them both for 5 games?

activeStick · 03-18-2023, 07:17 AM

Nashville? If the Flames win, that pulls them within 1 point of the Jets with equal games played and the Preds remain 1 point behind the Flames.

Enoch Root · 03-18-2023, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMike

So do we cheer for Nashville over Winnipeg today? A goalie fight between Hellybuck and Saros, suspending them both for 5 games?

Jets have more points, cheer for Nashville

Enoch Root · 03-18-2023, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blender

I've always felt similarly about PDO in that if you have a bad save percentage and a bad shooting percentage you are just a bad team. The way it was always correlated to luck never made sense to me. It is interesting, though to consider the outliers like the 22/23 Flames.

Historically, those correlations fall within certain ranges. When a team diverges significantly from those ranges, they usually revert back towards them. That's how stats work. That's why we look at them.

No one is saying PDO defines anything about the team's skill. No one is saying that the two factors in some way prove anything about the teams. It is simply a statistical fact that the stats fall within certain parameters, consistently, from year to year. And that when a team's numbers jump significantly above or below those historical ranges, they typically (almost always) revert back to more normal levels.

It's pretty straight-forward, and no one is claiming there is any more information than that in the numbers.

Enoch Root · 03-18-2023, 09:46 AM

Magic numbers heading into today's games (head to head):

WPG: 23
CGY: 30

NSH: 30
CGY: 32

* the Jets have the tie breaker, but the Flames have to finish ahead of WPG
** against NSH, the tie breaker is still undecided, so these numbers are for each team to finish ahead of the other team

When a team gets the number to zero, they have eliminated the other team. Each point earned, reduces the number, and each point missed by the other team, reduces the number. It is a race to zero.

robertsfanatic · 03-18-2023, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMike

So do we cheer for Nashville over Winnipeg today? A goalie fight between Hellybuck and Saros, suspending them both for 5 games?

cheer for a regulation win either way....GFG!

Enoch Root · 03-18-2023, 02:40 PM

With the Jets win...

WPG: 21
CGY: 30

NSH: 27
CGY: 31

(I had NSH wrong in my last post, they were at 28, not 30)

midniteowl · 03-18-2023, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

With the Jets win...

WPG: 21
CGY: 30

NSH: 27
CGY: 31

(I had NSH wrong in my last post, they were at 28, not 30)

When Flames win tonight will their number becomes 28 or remains 30?

Enoch Root · 03-18-2023, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by midniteowl

When Flames win tonight will their number becomes 28 or remains 30?

If the Flames win, their number will drop to 28 against the Jets and 29 against the Preds.

But if the Flames get an OTL, the Jets' and Preds' numbers will drop by 1 (as will the Flames'). And if they lose in regulation, those numbers would drop by 2 (and the Flames' stays unchanged)

ForeverFlameFan · 03-18-2023, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

I am seeing a lot of 12-4 as the projection to get in pre-Ottawa game, so very little room for error. I think it would be good to break down this very hard, but not a difficult task if you break it up in sections of 4, needing to grab 3 wins per 4 games. On the plus side, we won last game.

Game / Date / Team
67 / March 12 / OTT (W 5-1)
68 / March 14 / @AZ (OTL 3-4)
69 / March 16 / @VGK (W 7-2)
70 / March 18 / DAL (OTL 5-6)

71 / March 20 / @LAK
72 / March 21 / @ANA
73/ March 23 / VGK
74 / March 25 / SJS

75 / March 28 / LAK
76 / March 31 / @VAN
77 / April 2 / ANA
78 / April 4 / CHI

79 / April 5 / @WPG
80 / April 8 / @VAN
81 / April 10 / NSH
82 / April 12 / SJS

The hardest series is the one we're currently in. Also, we cannot afford to lose to Anaheim anymore. Aside from that, you can kind of see the teams you could afford to lose to, AS LONG as you are beating the inferior teams. Which is what the Flames have struggled with lately.

I've no doubt we can make noise in the playoffs, it's just a matter of getting there first.

2-0-2 is equivalent to 3-1. Still maintaining pace. Need to bring our A game against LAK, they’ve been superb lately.

Enoch Root · 03-18-2023, 10:54 PM

With the Flames' OTL...

WPG: 20
CGY: 29

NSH: 26
CGY: 30

Goriders · 03-18-2023, 11:35 PM

9-3 with wins over Wpg and Nashville probably gets you in. Every point matters. Good they got a point tonight.

They have 7 games left against non playoff teams. They seem to play well against the top teams. Maybe the stars align. We’ll see soon enough.

blankall · 03-19-2023, 06:21 PM

The preds are getting stomped tonight. The preds roster is depleted and they have an awful schedule.

A lot of these predictions about what the Flames record needs to be are based on the Preds and Wpg playing okay hockey, which may not happen.

Enoch Root · 03-19-2023, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall

The preds are getting stomped tonight. The preds roster is depleted and they have an awful schedule.

A lot of these predictions about what the Flames record needs to be are based on the Preds and Wpg playing okay hockey, which may not happen.

Predictions of records, and points needed, are pointless - we simply don't know.

That's why I like the elimination numbers - it's a simple race to zero

Goriders · 03-19-2023, 06:24 PM

Jets losing too

TrentCrimmIndependent · 03-19-2023, 06:33 PM

Hahahaha.. lord

Once again the door is pried open for the Flames

How many times will we give up, only to be reeled back in again between now and the end of the season?

Goriders · 03-19-2023, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Hahahaha.. lord

Once again the door is pried open for the Flames

How many times will we give up, only to be reeled back in again between now and the end of the season?

I’d guess 11?

Naitix · 03-19-2023, 06:36 PM

Just took a peak at Nashvilles schedule and Oof, that must be one of the hardest remaining schedules

TrentCrimmIndependent · 03-19-2023, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naitix

Just took a peak at Nashvilles schedule and Oof, that must be one of the hardest remaining schedules

Yeah. NSH will be hard pressed just to go .500 in that stretch.

Not too concerned.

I'm more concerned about having a chance to leapfrog Winnipeg and losing that head to head game.