The Eternal Playoff Optimism Thread - Page 12 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Goriders · 03-09-2023, 01:45 AM

I think 95 points. Or a 12-5 record gets you in. With the way the Jets are tanking.

Hopefully Nashville cools off.

1qqaaz · 03-09-2023, 06:57 AM

After Winnipeg's loss last night, MoneyPuck has the Flames at 49.9% chance to make the playoffs. They've been quite optimistic for the Flames all year, relatively speaking. The Athletic is a little lower, but similar.

Bingo · 03-09-2023, 08:23 AM

Winnipeg loss moves the Flames target back by a point to 96 and affords them an overtime loss instead of a win in their needed record.

Now at 12-4-1 instead of 13-4-0

Baby steps!

The Predators have games in hand but are only on a 93 point pace, so not the target until they swap places. Should Winnipeg fall out and Nashville stay on their same pace Calgary would need to go ... 11-5-1

Goriders · 03-09-2023, 08:47 AM

I think 95 will probably get you in so 12-5 could do it.

It will probably come down to the last week.

Always Earned Never Given · 03-09-2023, 09:43 AM

This is what I get when I fill in the rest of schedule with who should win based on opponent (non play-off team vs play-off team, Home or away, B2B and H2H vs that team)

Nothing scientific just wanted to share because of results and this being the optimism thread!

1st Central. Colorado Avalanche 112
1st Pacific Vegas Golden Knights 110
Dallas Stars 111
Seattle Kraken 106
Los Angeles Kings 106
Minnesota Wild 105
Calgary Flames 97
Edmonton Oilers 96
OUT Winnipeg Jets 94
OUT Nashville Predators 83

Bring on the Knights! and a waste of 8 days for the no goods.

ForeverFlameFan · 03-09-2023, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Always Earned Never Given

This is what I get when I fill in the rest of schedule with who should win based on opponent (non play-off team vs play-off team, Home or away, B2B and H2H vs that team)

Nothing scientific just wanted to share because of results and this being the optimism thread!

1st Central. Colorado Avalanche 112
1st Pacific Vegas Golden Knights 110
Dallas Stars 111
Seattle Kraken 106
Los Angeles Kings 106
Minnesota Wild 105
Calgary Flames 97
Edmonton Oilers 96
OUT Winnipeg Jets 94
OUT Nashville Predators 83

Bring on the Knights! and a waste of 8 days for the no goods.

It would be hilarious if Edmonton got Colorado as their first round opponent.

Strange Brew · 03-09-2023, 09:59 AM

Moneypuck's numbers make no sense to me. They had Colorado out of the playoffs almost all season.

Saw an ESPN article that had Flames at 32%, Nashville at 35% and Winnipeg at 54%. Those seem about right to me. Oilers were maybe 94% or so.

TheIronMaiden · 03-09-2023, 10:34 AM

Nashville is playing really well lately.

The Flames are at a point where even if they win a bunch they still need key teams to lose.

Yikes · 03-09-2023, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Nashville is playing really well lately.

The Flames are at a point where even if they win a bunch they still need key teams to lose.

Also, I get the Oilers hate, I do...BUT if you think the Flames are going to outpoint the Oilers and the Jets you are fools. As mentioned, the Flames making the playoffs and "must win" games ship sailed about 10 games ago.

1qqaaz · 03-09-2023, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Moneypuck's numbers make no sense to me. They had Colorado out of the playoffs almost all season.

Saw an ESPN article that had Flames at 32%, Nashville at 35% and Winnipeg at 54%. Those seem about right to me. Oilers were maybe 94% or so.

This all seems pretty reasonable to me. It really does seem like everyone ahead of Winnipeg is basically in.

looooob · 03-09-2023, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Moneypuck's numbers make no sense to me. They had Colorado out of the playoffs almost all season.

Saw an ESPN article that had Flames at 32%, Nashville at 35% and Winnipeg at 54%. Those seem about right to me. Oilers were maybe 94% or so.

I agree the Flames chances are a bit too high at moneypuck- I think it is because they not only work in strength of schedule etc, but they bake in (I could be totally wrong) some underlying numbers they have on the team in general- and their data just seems bullish on the Flames (probably for the reason's we debate here all the time- shot volumes etc- but I think its probably at the point for this year that those numbers aren't totally reflective of this year's gang that can't shoot straight)

DJones · 03-09-2023, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Always Earned Never Given

This is what I get when I fill in the rest of schedule with who should win based on opponent (non play-off team vs play-off team, Home or away, B2B and H2H vs that team)

Nothing scientific just wanted to share because of results and this being the optimism thread!

1st Central. Colorado Avalanche 112
1st Pacific Vegas Golden Knights 110
Dallas Stars 111
Seattle Kraken 106
Los Angeles Kings 106
Minnesota Wild 105
Calgary Flames 97
Edmonton Oilers 96
OUT Winnipeg Jets 94
OUT Nashville Predators 83

Bring on the Knights! and a waste of 8 days for the no goods.

Dragging ourselves to the playoffs to only play a healthy Colorado team would suck. Anyone else and I'm fine with it.

MacDaddy77 · 03-09-2023, 10:42 AM

I see your point on Coilers but not the Jets. Flames currently 4 pts back from jets.

Next 3 games

Jets - @ Panthers, @ Carolina, @ Lightening

Flames - VS Anaheim, VS Ottawa, @ Arizona

Flames could be in WC 2 spot by next Wednesday

Johnny Makarov · 03-09-2023, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yikes

Also, I get the Oilers hate, I do...BUT if you think the Flames are going to outpoint the Oilers and the Jets you are fools. As mentioned, the Flames making the playoffs and "must win" games ship sailed about 10 games ago.

You are in the wrong forum. You should be in The Lames Suck Thread on Oilyfans.com.
Yikes!

Bingo · 03-09-2023, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yikes

Also, I get the Oilers hate, I do...BUT if you think the Flames are going to outpoint the Oilers and the Jets you are fools. As mentioned, the Flames making the playoffs and "must win" games ship sailed about 10 games ago.

That seemed unnecessary.

Everyone knows it's unlikely.

But look at this weekend. The Jets play Florida in Miami on Saturday. Lets say the Flames beat the Ducks on Friday night and the Jets lose to the Panthers on Satuday.

Calgary two points back with even games played.

Doesn't take a huge reach to say this is still a race.

Johnny Makarov · 03-09-2023, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

That seemed unnecessary.

Everyone knows it's unlikely.

But look at this weekend. The Jets play Florida in Miami on Saturday. Lets say the Flames beat the Ducks on Friday night and the Jets lose to the Panthers on Satuday.

Calgary two points back with even games played.

Doesn't take a huge reach to say this is still a race.

Yikes is the Yoho of the Fire on Ice forum. Just ignore him.

Strange Brew · 03-09-2023, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by looooob

I agree the Flames chances are a bit too high at moneypuck- I think it is because they not only work in strength of schedule etc, but they bake in (I could be totally wrong) some underlying numbers they have on the team in general- and their data just seems bullish on the Flames (probably for the reason's we debate here all the time- shot volumes etc- but I think its probably at the point for this year that those numbers aren't totally reflective of this year's gang that can't shoot straight)

Agreed. It's a little late in the season to think those underlying numbers are going to somehow drive a team to their expected spot in the standings. Just as likely the underlying metrics start to move back to average.

A 1 in 3 chance is not really so bad. It's like being down 2 games to 1 in a series.

direwolf · 03-09-2023, 10:56 AM

The Jets are 2-6-2 in their last 10 and have been playing some pretty bad hockey of late. Flames still have a shot, provided they can find a way to string a few wins together. And sure, the likelihood of that happening with this group is slim to none, but hockey is a funny sport sometimes and stranger things have happened.

Flames0910 · 03-09-2023, 10:56 AM

It's a bit sad it's come to this with the talent and the points we've wasted. But I gotta say it's nice to at least be scoreboard watching instead of watching the team play out pointless games for the remainder of the schedule while reading threads about our mediocre future. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Believe!

TheIronMaiden · 03-09-2023, 10:57 AM

It feel more crazy to me that a season can be decided with 17 games left then it is for team to string some wins together and make the playoffs.