Ownership and Management Perspective

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No, they aren’t “cheap”. You act like Moneyball eliminates all high priced players. Moneyball is mainly about stats based management choices and filling lower spots with unrecognized talent that fills statistical needs. You mention Rooney but ignore Lewis, Gilbert, Gudbranson, Ritchie, Leivo, etc. These were largely unsuccessful attempts to play moneyball. Which IMO doesn’t lend itself to the NHL.

Isn't Moneyball about finding undervalued players due to an inefficiency in the existing valuation models? Valuing RBIs and BA and undervaluing OBP?

I don't think Lewis, Gilbert etc were somehow being ignored because existing NHL valuation models were not effectively recognizing their undervalued talents.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The super weird thing for the Flames is they have gotten value from all the young guys they signed longterm. A lot came through trades but the general value of the young players they signed longterm is fairly constant.

Hamilton - 6 years 5.75 million - dman who on an 82 game average was about a 55 point man a year dman.

Gaudreau - 6 year deal for 6.75 million - averaged about 90 points per 82 games played

Monahan - 7 year deal 6.375 million - only one that may not have worked out but was derailed by injury. First 4 years was a 30 goal 35 assist man (roughly) over 82 games.

Hanifin - 6 years 4.95 million - has been a fairly consistent 35 point dman who is good defensively

Lindholm - 6 years 4.85 million - a complete steal, great defensively and a 70-80 point man throughout the contract

Rasmus - 6 years 4.55 million - looks like a 50 point dman who is pretty good defensively.

So almost every single time they have tried to lock young guys in longterm the contract works out. But then they add a requisite number of at best average UFA contracts, with a number that have been awful, exception being Tanev who has been great which neuters the ability of those quality longterm young contracts to work.

Guys signed longterm through their 20’s almost always perform at or above their contract value. UFA’s really struggle to perform at their contract level throughout the term of the contract, let alone exceed the value of their contract.

Agreed in general. The issue was they haven’t been able to lock in a young talented goalie. And the Gaudreau/Lindholm/Monahan prime years were marred by injury, relatively poor performance by Gaudreau in the last years except for his final year, didn’t help. The COVID years were when that team should have been at their best.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The super weird thing for the Flames is they have gotten value from all the young guys they signed longterm. A lot came through trades but the general value of the young players they signed longterm is fairly constant.

Hamilton - 6 years 5.75 million - dman who on an 82 game average was about a 55 point man a year dman.

Gaudreau - 6 year deal for 6.75 million - averaged about 90 points per 82 games played

Monahan - 7 year deal 6.375 million - only one that may not have worked out but was derailed by injury. First 4 years was a 30 goal 35 assist man (roughly) over 82 games.

Hanifin - 6 years 4.95 million - has been a fairly consistent 35 point dman who is good defensively

Lindholm - 6 years 4.85 million - a complete steal, great defensively and a 70-80 point man throughout the contract

Rasmus - 6 years 4.55 million - looks like a 50 point dman who is pretty good defensively.

So almost every single time they have tried to lock young guys in longterm the contract works out. But then they add a requisite number of at best average UFA contracts, with a number that have been awful, exception being Tanev who has been great which neuters the ability of those quality longterm young contracts to work.

Guys signed longterm through their 20’s almost always perform at or above their contract value. UFA’s really struggle to perform at their contract level throughout the term of the contract, let alone exceed the value of their contract.

They have absolutely hit on late round picks. I think our scouting is quite exceptional really. I would like to give them WAY more at bats in the draft though, for 3-4 consecutive years, and see what they could inject into our pipeline.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Isn't Moneyball about finding undervalued players due to an inefficiency in the existing valuation models? Valuing RBIs and BA and undervaluing OBP?

I don't think Lewis, Gilbert etc were somehow being ignored because existing NHL valuation models were not effectively recognizing their undervalued talents.

Well, I think Lewis is an example of valuing shot suppression over scoring points, for example. And I think the acquisition of other lower guys was the same - Leivo, Ryan, Nordstrom, Simon were guys who Treliving and staff for whatever reason thought had untapped potential like that.

Again, I don’t think this works in the NHL. Winning teams have high point forwards like Mackinnon, Kucherov, etc, and generally have stud goaltending (usually developed not bought).

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

They have absolutely hit on late round picks. I think our scouting is quite exceptional really. I would like to give them WAY more at bats in the draft though, for 3-4 consecutive years, and see what they could inject into our pipeline.

I'm not taking shots at Tod Button. Flames need three more of him. And agree about needing more at bats.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, I think Lewis is an example of valuing shot suppression over scoring points, for example. And I think the acquisition of other lower guys was the same - Leivo, Ryan, Nordstrom, Simon were guys who Treliving and staff for whatever reason thought had untapped potential like that.

Defensive hockey from a fourth liner isn't exactly rewriting the hockey valuation model. They seem more like just replacement level guys that were low acquisition cost players that any team cycles through.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Defensive hockey from a fourth liner isn't exactly rewriting the hockey valuation model. They seem more like just replacement level guys that were low acquisition cost players that any team cycles through.

Leivo/Nordstrom/Ritchie/etc were probably tagged as 3rd liners. Maybe even Lewis (he certainly was deployed that way for significant periods).

Shot suppression/possession is different than defensive hockey, as well.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Agreed in general. The issue was they haven’t been able to lock in a young talented goalie. And the Gaudreau/Lindholm/Monahan prime years were marred by injury, relatively poor performance by Gaudreau in the last years except for his final year, didn’t help. The COVID years were when that team should have been at their best.

I would argue the UFA’s were generally detrimental in the sense that they took up cap space to try to sign other guys longterm. I am not saying these guys would have done this but the Flames could not even try to do the following deals because they were right up to the cap in both years.

Mangiapane (2020) - they signed him for 2 years at 2.425 after he had a season that would have been 21 goals and 18 goals over 82 games. Would he have signed a 8 year 4 million dollar deal? Not sure but hindsight makes that deal seem pretty good

Dube (2021) signs a 3 year 2.3 million dollar deal after a season that he was one a 17 goal 17 assist pace. Would he have signed a 7 year deal for 3.5 million a year? Maybe but he will get well north of 4 million a year this off-season, maybe as high as 5 on a longterm deal.

I know those are all hypotheticals but my point is you know on average young guys outperform the value of these longterm contracts. The general philosophy should be to try to lockdown guys after their ELC or after they show an ability to perform at the NHL level to longterm contracts. Any additional space should be filled by UFA’s for nothing more than a 3 year term in my opinion.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Leivo/Nordstrom/Ritchie/etc were probably tagged as 3rd liners. Maybe even Lewis (he certainly was deployed that way for significant periods).

Again these are all guys that are acquired in a typical bottom 6 role that play in typical bottom 6 roles for every team they are on. I don't see how the Flames are unearthing hidden value in them.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Again these are all guys that are acquired in a typical bottom 6 role that play in typical bottom 6 roles for every team they are on. I don't see how the Flames are unearthing hidden value in them.

They didn’t unearth hidden value. I’m arguing that they tried and failed. That this is not a league or sport where that works.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Defensive hockey from a fourth liner isn't exactly rewriting the hockey valuation model. They seem more like just replacement level guys that were low acquisition cost players that any team cycles through.

It has been a while, but a good example is Huselius. He was completely being misused by Jacques Martin in Florida. Flames acquire him for cheap, give him kush offensive minutes and lots of PP time and he flourishes into a 77 point playmaker.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I would argue the UFA’s were generally detrimental in the sense that they took up cap space to try to sign other guys longterm. I am not saying these guys would have done this but the Flames could not even try to do the following deals because they were right up to the cap in both years.

Mangiapane (2020) - they signed him for 2 years at 2.425 after he had a season that would have been 21 goals and 18 goals over 82 games. Would he have signed a 8 year 4 million dollar deal? Not sure but hindsight makes that deal seem pretty good

Dube (2021) signs a 3 year 2.3 million dollar deal after a season that he was one a 17 goal 17 assist pace. Would he have signed a 7 year deal for 3.5 million a year? Maybe but he will get well north of 4 million a year this off-season, maybe as high as 5 on a longterm deal.

I know those are all hypotheticals but my point is you know on average young guys outperform the value of these longterm contracts. The general philosophy should be to try to lockdown guys after their ELC or after they show an ability to perform at the NHL level to longterm contracts. Any additional space should be filled by UFA’s for nothing more than a 3 year term in my opinion.

I agree in general. Of course, the UFAs we are talking about with those contracts are Tanev and Markstrom and, depending on timing, Coleman and Toffoli. Not the Huberdeau or Weegar extensions or Kadri.

I don’t think those deals were available for those two players either. In fact, I suspect deals like that were offered and rejected.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They didn’t unearth hidden value. I’m arguing that they tried and failed. That this is not a league or sport where that works.

Fair enough, I agree it is likely a sport where that doesn't work as randomness is such a large part of the game.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by cannon7

It has been a while, but a good example is Huselius. He was completely being misused by Jacques Martin in Florida. Flames acquire him for cheap, give him kush offensive minutes and lots of PP time and he flourishes into a 77 point playmaker.

Hamilton (looking ahead to his eventual pricetag) for Lindholm and Hanifin is something like that.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Hamilton (looking ahead to his eventual pricetag) for Lindholm and Hanifin is something like that.

Would agree if it weren't for the franchise defenceman we packaged in that deal. Obviously he wasn't going to sign here, but definitely sours that exchange.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Fair enough, I agree it is likely a sport where that doesn't work as randomness is such a large part of the game.

Randomness and the fact your fortunes rest on goalies so heavily.

[powderjunkie]

NHL's version of "moneyball" might be what FLA and VGK and SEA have done with cast-offs/reclamation projects (though FLA and VGK pivoted to conventional star-chasing pretty much ASAP) . And just like Moneyball it hasn't turned into any championships.

[flames_fan_down_under]

As a massive baseball fan I am finding these continual poor Moneyball comparisons frustrating.

[SilverKast]

Seems to me like we really suck with our UFA signings. I think we have a lot more misses than hits in that department that have really hurt us. I get the overpay thing just to come here, but even accounting for that we're not getting good value for the most part there. Seeing how that's the big off season splash I can't see how I'd be happy with the returns if I was an owner.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

As a massive baseball fan I am finding these continual poor Moneyball comparisons frustrating.

I don’t disagree, having made some. The comparison doesn’t really work with a hard cap and the team structures anyway.