Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

Sort of ironic that the Commies wouldn't fund the Socialists. Workers of the world aren't united after all I guess.

Then again, I sort of classify China as techno-fascists these days anyway, so... Hmm... Dunno where I was going with this.

China isn't "communist" anymore though - despite the name

[timun]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think PP has a legit chance at victory - unlikeable as he is.

Indeed he does, but demographics still aren't favourable. Polls still haven't moved all that much, and with an overall rough one-third CPC, one-third LPC, one-third everyone else vote split I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another Liberal minority government after the next election. Just like how we are in essentially the same spot as we were before the last election. I think the clearest path to a CPC election victory is vote-splitting between the LPC and NDP, but it's a tenuous path at best because Jagmeet Singh and the NDP barely move the needle. The CPC also need to worry about their own vote-splitting with the looney toons further right. Skippy needs to thread a fine line between courting the far-right goofs but not alienating what remains of the Red Tories; I'm not sure he'll succeed.

An overarching issue for all of the parties is that none of them are likeable. I'll wager the voter turnout for the next election will be the lowest ever.

[Fuzz]

If you look at the actual data, this chart seems to be bad news for Conservative:



https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit...february-2023/

I'm never convinced "switchers" really stick to their guns once in the polling booth, but ignoring that, past liberal and NDP supporters are undecided at a higher rate than Conservatives. I think both these things leave room for a big swing back to the Liberals should PP go off the rails, or the Liberals actual come up with some good ideas(like replacing Justin).

[peter12]

The Liberals won't replace JT until he burns the whole thing down during an election.

[Jason14h]

Biggest threat the Liberals (and NDP in BC) face is a housing crash that will be blamed on the Liberals and high interest rates

If the economy is ok I think a Liberal minority most likely occurs

[nik-]

How did this foreign intervention thing basically distill down to one MP? When this first came out wasn't it implied that it was several, but unnamed?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Biggest threat the Liberals (and NDP in BC) face is a housing crash that will be blamed on the Liberals and high interest rates

If the economy is ok I think a Liberal minority most likely occurs

Would a housing price crash work against PP, as his big plank is unaffordability? It would take the wind out his sails if prices drop 20-30%.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1630297472508592129

Strong answer.

Would love it if reporter responded.

“Sorry Mr. Prime minister are you saying CSIS was racsist when they told you about Chinese election interference?”

[timun]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If you look at the actual data, this chart seems to be bad news for Conservative:

Spoiler!

https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit...february-2023/

I'm never convinced "switchers" really stick to their guns once in the polling booth, but ignoring that, past liberal and NDP supporters are undecided at a higher rate than Conservatives. I think both these things leave room for a big swing back to the Liberals should PP go off the rails, or the Liberals actual come up with some good ideas(like replacing Justin).

It bodes somewhat well for the CPC that they have the most loyal base and the PPC have far and away the least loyal; chances are the "switchers" from the PPC will vote CPC. It also bodes well that the Liberals have the smallest proportion of "loyalists".

What they desperately need is for those Liberal voters to switch to Team Blue, but I'm not confident they would. I think the best the CPC can hope for is the LPC "switchers" and "reluctants" to jump ship to the other parties on the left.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Would a housing price crash work against PP, as his big plank is unaffordability? It would take the wind out his sails if prices drop 20-30%.

I would say no, because there is a much higher percentage of house owners than first time buyers, and the loss in wealth due to the price drop would tend to be in PPs favour.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by nik-

How did this foreign intervention thing basically distill down to one MP? When this first came out wasn't it implied that it was several, but unnamed?

The global story said Csis identified him as a willing participant and described the means of getting him the nomination through bussing international students and providing them with address information.

This type of information has not been discussed for the other ridings.

[Northendzone]

i was a little stunned over the weekend with Butts seemingly suggesting that there should be an inquiry.

To me, the longer JT ignores this call, the more it starts to look like he is hiding something. I'd like to think it could be a big nail in his coffin, but, he is slippery.

I feel like if an inquiry is ever held, the gov't should publicize things as much as possible, so ordinary citizens can understand exactly what has gone on and hopefully be vigilant to signs of future interference

[Izzle]

I'd like to see Trudeau wriggle out of THIS jam!

*Trudeau wriggles out of this jam easily*

Ah! Well, nevertheless.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I would say no, because there is a much higher percentage of house owners than first time buyers, and the loss in wealth due to the price drop would tend to be in PPs favour.

Maybe, but the demographics PP has been picking up are not old retired home owners. He may pick up some voters in the situation you describe, but on balance? Tough to say. Maybe it's a wash.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Izzle

I'd like to see Trudeau wriggle out of THIS jam!

*Trudeau wriggles out of this jam easily*

Ah! Well, nevertheless.

Of course, we have women and queers to thank for that. One look at that beautiful face and it’s “China, who? Yes dear, whatever you say Mr Prime Minister!”

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I think a big part of keeping Trudeau in office is women voters...obviously because of his looks.

Yeah obviously. Equally as obvious is that all the men that didn't vote Liberal are either jealous of Justin's good looks or closeted homosexuals in denial.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Would a housing price crash work against PP, as his big plank is unaffordability? It would take the wind out his sails if prices drop 20-30%.

Any kind of huge economic bust (housing drop of 20-30% would be catastrophic) tends to work against the government...

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

Yeah obviously. Equally as obvious is that all the men that didn't vote Liberal are either jealous of Justin's good looks or closeted homosexuals in denial.

Was this intended as a burn?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It was intended as mockery of a silly post, so in that sense, yes.

That being said, it has long been thought that people - not just women, but everyone regardless of sex or sexual orientation - are more likely to vote for a tall dude with a good head of hair. In that sense, JT's a good candidate at 6'2", where as PP is in some serious trouble at about 5'7".

[Monahammer]

Jordan Peterson would have been able to figure out that was not a burn.