The Eternal Playoff Optimism Thread

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

I mentioned it an another thread
Minnesota and Nashville will fall away
we will be the second wild card team and draw Colorado in the first round
waste of 8 days

The Wild are now 6 points ahead of the Flames and have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. It's the Jets that are in a free fall right now as they are going to lose again today.

[All In Good Time]

same difference

[bigrangy]

I’d like the Flames to stay in it in order to keep the 8 other teams honest. At this point 7 of the Western conference teams are either mass selling or outright tanking. Pretty classic Flames that they can’t manage to make the top 8 in that scenario.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

same difference

Not really unless you are of the belief the Jets and Wild are the exact same team.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

If by some miracle they win 3 in a row this week at home maybe there’s hope.

This thread is not for you, go away.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Not really unless you are of the belief the Jets and Wild are the exact same team.

Well no
I had said one team was gonna fall out
you said another team was falling (I dont think winnipeg would fall far enough for us though) but, if they did, same difference

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

If by some miracle they win 3 in a row this week at home maybe there’s hope.

Going to need a couple 3+ game streaks the rest of the way, and no worse than .500 hockey the rest of the time

[Flamesfan05]

Jets and Krakens

They have to go like 8-2 and hope the other teams plays below .500

Very optimistic

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I bought tickets to the Wild game. It's going to be intense.

For who? Flames are allergic to intensity.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Jets in a free fall

Hopefully living and playing in Winnipeg has ripped the souls from the holy husks they call bodies

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Wild will probably be out of reach by that time

Meaning it will be low intensity

[Barnet Flame]

My only concern is whether or not we sweep the Bruins with our lack of quality goaltending.

[McG]

My positive: as long as flames control own destiny, team has a chance.

My realistic: flames haven’t played consistently well enough to do anything with this destiny.

My negative: team average stays average. Mid round picks, first round playoff exits, 92-97 points, year after year.

[boogerz]

My realistic: Sutter makes changes too late (e.g. similar to how he didn't put the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line together until playoff hopes were gone in 2020-21) and the Flames tread water to 9th place in the division...missing the playoffs.

My optimistic: firepower continues to be traded out of the western conference and the Flames are able to coast to 8th place in the division...making the playoffs

[SuperMatt18]

For simplicity sake lets pro-rate everyone to 60 GP.

Winnipeg: 35-24-1 71 points (.500 over their prior 22 games)
Seattle: 32-21-7 71 points (.545 over their prior 22 games)
Flames: 27-21-12 66 points (.523 over their prior 22 games)

So every team would have 22 games remaining.

Let's say conservatively the teams the Flames need to catch play .545 hockey the rest of the way. So not their current pace, but kind of in line with how they've played the last 22 games.

That would put them at 95 points - which isn't far off a historical playoff line, but a little lower than the current trend would be based on current point percentages.

Flames would need to get to 96 points, or 30 points out of the remaining 44 games which is a .681 point percentage.

Bottom line they need 15 wins in 22 games. Break the rest of the season into 3 game series and you need to win those series (2/3), and win your last game, and you are likely in the playoffs.

Round 1: Boston, Toronto, Minnesota
Round 2: @ Dallas, @ Minnesota, Anaheim
Round 3: Ottawa, @Arizona, @Vegas
Round 4: Dallas, @LA, @Anaheim
Round 5: Vegas, SJS, LA
Round 6: @Vancouver, Anaheim, Chicago,
Round 7: @Winnipeg, @Vancouver, Nashville

Game 82: San Jose

IMO they need to win the bolded - the schedule isn't impossible. That is 15 wins - only 5 (Boston, Minnesota x 2, Dallas, LA) would need to be against playoff teams.

The Flames schedule this year is a bit messed up in that the softest part of the schedule is easily their last 20 games IMO.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

For simplicity sake lets pro-rate everyone to 60 GP.

Winnipeg: 35-24-1 71 points (.500 over their prior 22 games)
Seattle: 32-21-7 71 points (.545 over their prior 22 games)
Flames: 27-21-12 66 points (.523 over their prior 22 games)

So every team would have 22 games remaining.

Let's say conservatively the teams the Flames need to catch play .545 hockey the rest of the way. So not their current pace, but kind of in line with how they've played the last 22 games.

That would put them at 95 points - which isn't far off a historical playoff line, but a little lower than the current trend would be based on current point percentages.

Flames would need to get to 96 points, or 30 points out of the remaining 44 games which is a .681 point percentage.

Bottom line they need 15 wins in 22 games. Break the rest of the season into 3 game series and you need to win those series (2/3), and win your last game, and you are likely in the playoffs.

Round 1: Boston, Toronto, Minnesota
Round 2: @ Dallas, @ Minnesota, Anaheim
Round 3: Ottawa, @Arizona, @Vegas
Round 4: Dallas, @LA, @Anaheim
Round 5: Vegas, SJS, LA
Round 6: @Vancouver, Anaheim, Chicago,
Round 7: @Winnipeg, @Vancouver, Nashville

Game 82: San Jose

IMO they need to win the bolded - the schedule isn't impossible. That is 15 wins - only 5 (Boston, Minnesota x 2, Dallas, LA) would need to be against playoff teams.

The Flames schedule this year is a bit messed up in that the softest part of the schedule is easily their last 20 games IMO.

If your predictions come true, they will leap frog Edmonton as their remaining 22 games are brutal. Edm might get to 92 or 94 points only.

[442scotty]

I’m optimistic that the Flames need to win 18 of the last 22 to get in. I’m realistic in thinking they win 8.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

I’m optimistic that the Flames need to win 18 of the last 22 to get in. I’m realistic in thinking they win 8.

Go away. Seriously, this thread is for those who still have hope. Go create a Debbie Downers thread.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

I’m optimistic that the Flames need to win 18 of the last 22 to get in. I’m realistic in thinking they win 8.

So you can't do math, got it

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Go away. Seriously, this thread is for those who still have hope. Go create a Debbie Downers thread.

Yeah, this forum desperately needs another one of those!