[Game Takes] Knights 4 Flames 3 (OT)

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yeah, they are both letting in goals that other goalies make the save on. We see it every game. Yesterday was not a pile of perimeter shots from the Flames, they were leading in scoring shots by a pile.

The goalies for each team face different shots

How many Vegas saves were shots into the goalie’s pads?

Show me where the Vegas goalie made saves that were comparable shot placement to where Vegas scored on Calgary. Then we have something real to discuss

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The goalies for each team face different shots

How many Vegas saves were shots into the goalie’s pads?

Show me where the Vegas goalie made saves that were comparable shot placement to where Vegas scored on Calgary. Then we have something real to discuss

You're putting the onus on other people to show that the shots the Flames shooters take are easier to save than the shots the Flames allow.

I think you're the one that should be showing that - it's your hypothesis.

Overall a .888 save percentage is abysmal - even if the Flames do give up some high quality chances.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

You're putting the onus on other people to show that the shots the Flames shooters take are easier to save than the shots the Flames allow.

I think you're the one that should be showing that - it's your hypothesis.

Overall a .888 save percentage is abysmal - even if the Flames do give up some high quality chances.

It’s funny. Many games, I have pointed out the egregious and costly breakdowns.

As for sv%, that’s nothing another 10 shots from the outside can’t fix

[Burning Beard]

So are you saying that goaltending has been good? Adequate? Poor? Where do you lie on that?

[D as in David]

The D, in particular, were looking pretty gassed in the third period. The Knights' forwards, with the puck in the offensive zone, sure seemed to be going from low to high an awful lot which requires the d-man to follow - is that a team taking advantage of the Flames' man-to-man defensive system?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

So are you saying that goaltending has been good? Adequate? Poor? Where do you lie on that?

I think the goalie play has been adequate. Not stellar, but not as bad as the conclusion people are drawing from the stats. Not the biggest problem

I view stats as a starting point for a conversation, not the end, and try to lay out the reasons when I see a discrepancy

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

It’s funny. Many games, I have pointed out the egregious and costly breakdowns.

As for sv%, that’s nothing another 10 shots from the outside can’t fix

What you are asking for is an impossible task. We don't know how many Flames shots would have gone just inside the bar for a goal, but where the opposing goalie had the angle properly covered.

For comparison in this game, Broissoit made two good blocker/arm saves on the Flames first PP which I would rate as equal to Vladar making a save on the second goal.

If Vladar isn't crouched back in his net McLoeod has no net to shoot at and you aren't calling that goal a snipe.

[madmike]

The Flames goaltending this year has been garbage. How many times has a goaltender ‘stolen’ a game?

There have definitely been defensive breakdowns, but every team has those. Good goalies help their teams overcome those breakdowns. The Flames’ goalies this year have not.

How many games can you point to this season and say the Flames had a better goaltending performance than their opponent? It should be at least half the games, but the Flames aren’t close to that this season.

The Flames don’t have the worst goaltending in the league, but they’re bottom-10 for sure, which is unacceptable given what the starter makes. In my opinion it’s the biggest problem with the team. You don’t win a Cup with goaltending like this.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

What you are asking for is an impossible task. We don't know how many Flames shots would have gone just inside the bar for a goal, but where the opposing goalie had the angle properly covered.

For comparison in this game, Broissoit made two good blocker/arm saves on the Flames first PP which I would rate as equal to Vladar making a save on the second goal.

If Vladar isn't crouched back in his net McLoeod has no net to shoot at and you aren't calling that goal a snipe.

That’s fair - for the record, I don’t like the second goal. It hit him and then hit inside the post, a bit more square and that’s not a goal. Not good for sure

I sure didn’t see Brossoit make a save with Kessel sitting on him though

Anyways, the story of the game for me wasn’t the goalie

It was really the way the goals came about

The first goal was scored on a ridiculous PP that shouldn’t be a PP
Not challenging the goal where Kessel was on him
The strategy in the third and getting only 1 shot
A brutal change in OT and a lucky bounce

Just a stinker on the whole

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

That’s fair - for the record, I don’t like the second goal. It hit him and then hit inside the post, a bit more square and that’s not a goal. Not good for sure

I sure didn’t see Brossoit make a save with Kessel sitting on him though

Anyways, the story of the game for me wasn’t the goalie

It was really the way the goals came about

The first goal was scored on a ridiculous PP that shouldn’t be a PP
Not challenging the goal where Kessel was on him
The strategy in the third and getting only 1 shot
A brutal change in OT and a lucky bounce

Just a stinker on the whole

Fully agree. I don't think goaltending cost us that game necessarily. I think bad player deployment and passive play in the third killed the team. Would have loved a timeout to try and break up the knights momentum. Like, do something.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

It’s funny. Many games, I have pointed out the egregious and costly breakdowns.

As for sv%, that’s nothing another 10 shots from the outside can’t fix

Every team has those breakdowns though. I don't think the Flames have egregious breakdowns more than any other team. They probably do give up less total chances which does drive the save percentage down a bit, but an .888 is still abysmal.

Even last night:

The Whitecloud goal against, the Marchessault goal against, and the Eichel goal against...no chance any of those are harder chances to save than the quality of chances the Flames generated. The goalies are just positioned poor and giving up too much of the net to shoot at. And not that all three are "Soft" but ideally your goalie doesn't allow all 3.

The Flames do give up an abnormally low amount of low danger shots against - the second lowest low danger shot total against in the league (Carolina is 1st).

But it actually doesn't mean they give up an abnormal % of high danger chances:

Low Danger:
Shots For: 830 (2nd)
Shots Against: 538 (2nd)
Save Percentage: .955 (23rd)
Ratio to Total Shots Against: 34% (32nd - lowest % of LD shots to total shots)

Medium Danger:
Shots For: 598 (1st)
Shots Against: 508 (19th)
Save Percentage: .854 (31st)
Ratio to Total Shots: 31.7% (1st - Highest % of MD shots to total shots)

High Danger:
Shots For: 520 (18th)
Shots Against: 457 (3rd)
Save Percentage: .827 (14th)
Ratio to Total Shots: 28.5% (16th)

High Danger shots actually aren't the issue, we give up the 3rd fewest shots against, the save percentage at 14th isn't great but better than the rest, and ratio to total shots is middle of the pack.

Medium Danger is where our goalies don't make a save, and we give up relatively higher volume. If anything we give up an abnormal ratio of Medium Danger shots - but in terms of pure volume it's still in the bottom half of the league.

And to your point of shot location...it's almost impossible to tell in real time where exactly the puck hits on a goalie. And you see the goals against with multiple replays so it's easy to say "Look the Flames allow more shots are are labeled for corners" but that's just confirmation bias. Because if the puck hits the goalie then it's not going to be seen as a labeled shot. IMO our goalies play too deep in their net, and don't get square to the shooter, so it leaves more open space.

[DropIt]

Teams have figured out Vladar. His short side positioning is awful

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

It’s funny. Many games, I have pointed out the egregious and costly breakdowns.

As for sv%, that’s nothing another 10 shots from the outside can’t fix

I just don't get why you think we all need to go with your gut on this.

You believe that models don't work ... I've agreed 100 times they need to improve but they're likely even across the 32 teams and 64 goaltenders.

You think the Flames do things differently than what these simple counting models suggest to a degree that is greater than other teams (or different) but have zero proof of any of this.

Add in you've had a multi season goaltender angle that often looks at the backup and it sends more shade in my opinion.

So yeah no doubt I'm dubious and will continue to be.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I think the goalie play has been adequate. Not stellar, but not as bad as the conclusion people are drawing from the stats. Not the biggest problem

I view stats as a starting point for a conversation, not the end, and try to lay out the reasons when I see a discrepancy

But the problem is that you seem to believe that you are somewhat unique in that fact.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just don't get why you think we all need to go with your gut on this.

You believe that models don't work ... I've agreed 100 times they need to improve but they're likely even across the 32 teams and 64 goaltenders.

You think the Flames do things differently than what these simple counting models suggest to a degree that is greater than other teams (or different) but have zero proof of any of this.

Add in you've had a multi season goaltender angle that often looks at the backup and it sends more shade in my opinion.

So yeah no doubt I'm dubious and will continue to be.

Don’t you find it interesting that coincidentally both goalies have much worse stats?

What do they have in common.. hmmmm. The team in front of them?

We know the team is drastically underachieving. They have lost more than their share of 1 goal games. I can also point out several games off the top of my head where the Flames have made egregious and costly mistakes, relative to their opponent

You say I don’t have any proof. Fact is, for every Flames game I watch, I also observe a team that is not the Flames.

I do believe that the Flames make more egregious costly mistakes than other teams. I point them out, and we don’t really see the same called out for the opponent. Each time that happens, it is another data point. Just not something measured

Lots of third period collapses. No third period comebacks.

We observe it often when they play. Other teams aren’t imposing their will on the Flames. They are losing games more often than they win.

I have commented on it many times, as you know. You call it my gut, but when it happens repeatedly enough, I still question why it doesn’t start to make you question if there may be something there.

Even you yourself stated that you didn’t think this one was on the goalie, by the way.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Don’t you find it interesting that coincidentally both goalies have much worse stats?

What do they have in common.. hmmmm. The team in front of them?

We know the team is drastically underachieving. They have lost more than their share of 1 goal games. I can also point out several games off the top of my head where the Flames have made egregious and costly mistakes, relative to their opponent

You say I don’t have any proof. Fact is, for every Flames game I watch, I also observe a team that is not the Flames.

I do believe that the Flames make more egregious costly mistakes than other teams. I point them out, and we don’t really see the same called out for the opponent. Each time that happens, it is another data point. Just not something measured

Lots of third period collapses. No third period comebacks.

We observe it often when they play. Other teams aren’t imposing their will on the Flames. They are losing games more often than they win.

I have commented on it many times, as you know. You call it my gut, but when it happens repeatedly enough, I still question why it doesn’t start to make you question if there may be something there.

Even you yourself stated that you didn’t think this one was on the goalie, by the way.

Telling me you watch Flames games isn't proof of anything.

And honestly man, I'm not even telling you you're wrong. I'm just telling you I'm seeing something different, and what I'm seeing is backed up by stats.

Your view isn't backed up by anything.

But that doesn't make you wrong. It just means you haven't proved you're right in any way, shape or fashion.

And describing what sounds like a confirmation bias doesn't change that.

[GullFoss]

It's honestly more likely both goalies are underperforming than it is that the stats are biased against the flames goalies.

The idea that the opposing teams are systematically better at shot placement than the flames should actually be reflected in the GF vs xGF of the flames. Because that suggests the flames are below average at finishing more than it suggests the other team is good at finishing. And that's exactly what the data shows.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

It's honestly more likely both goalies are underperforming than it is that the stats are biased against the flames goalies.

The idea that the opposing teams are systematically better at shot placement than the flames should actually be reflected in the GF vs xGF of the flames. Because that suggests the flames are below average at finishing more than it suggests the other team is good at finishing. And that's exactly what the data shows.

But not really, because the xGF is based on a bucket of shots, based on the common elements of location they are taken from, and preceding event

It is not based on time and space available to the shooter and shot placement

It is a problem I have observed. The Flames give up costly grade As

The stats aren’t biased. They reflect what they measure.

Because the measurements don’t capture the problems I observe, the conclusion people draw seems to penalize the G

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

But not really, because the xGF is based on a bucket of shots, based on the common elements of location they are taken from, and preceding event

It is not based on time and space available to the shooter and shot placement

It is a problem I have observed. The Flames give up costly grade As

The stats aren’t biased. They reflect what they measure.

Because the measurements don’t capture the problems I observe, the conclusion people draw seems to penalize the G

So the Flames have managed to beat the system!

They can be top 5 in most chance splits and win a division with their goalie being second in the Vezinza trophy, and then the very next season be top five again in all those chance splits but this time the goalie(s) are a disaster but in a way that is on the skaters and system and not on the same goalie that was 2nd in Vezina votes.

And the stats don't reflect this because the Flames have managed to also beat the system in giving up more dangerous stuff than their peers in a way that isn't reflected in stats. Higher danger danger!

It's kind of like watching a Bruce Willis movie. If I'm willing to just accept the above like a person needs to accept that Bruce can avoid all bullets and figure out how to drill a deep hole on a moving comet it all works!

[Jason14h]

To me the eye test matches the stats

When you watch the Flames goalies they don’t look adequate. They look horrible . They are deep in their net , playing with no confidence . They don’t stop shots they can see the whole way, and ones they are expected too (always take the pass on a 2-1 for example doesn’t work if they goalie let’s in the shot and forces the D to try and stop both players occasionally resulting in a tap in if they fail )

On the other hand , every game I see the oppositions goalie make 3-5 great saves - like they are expected too - (or Flames miss the net)

At the end of the game I am seldom left thinking that the other team had more chances then the Flames, in fact it is the exact opposite

I think the Flames as a team do an amazing job suppressing chances this season . It’s just the when they make a mistake - and every team will make 5-10 grade A mistakes every game - 85% of the time it ends up in the net .

Then add in the odd bad goal that isn’t even off a mistake and it’s the reason this team has zero shutouts and very few one goal against games this season , but a whole lot of 3 and 4 goal against games

I just can’t fathom how anyone who watches the Flames OR looks at advance stats OR looks at traditional stats can say the Flames goaltending is adequate

The is the rare instance where new age stats, old school stats, and the eye test all align for me