[Game Takes] Knights 4 Flames 3 (OT)

[Bingo]

https://www.calgarypuck.com/2023/02/...4-flames-3-ot/

- Flames blow 3-1 third period lead
- Backlund with a rough change in overtime
- Backlund and Pelletier with two points

[GullFoss]

A part of me can't help but wonder if this iteration of the flames would be a juggernaut in the playoffs if they got goaltending figured out.

I realize most people are writing off this season as a middling team that wasn't quite good enough. Analytical darlings with multiple flaws.

But to me, this feels as disappointing as the 2005-06 team that had an easy path to the finals, if only they could beat anahiem. Or the 2008-09 season when injuries decimated a specially constructed flames team down the stretch.

The 22-23 flames: what could have been if only they had decent goaltending.

[DeluxeMoustache]

xGA …

How many xGA does Pietrangelo’s tap in from 8 inches behind the goalie count for?
Lol. Should be 1 . Of a laughable 2.19

They gave up the first on a ridiculous PP, didn’t challenge Kessel sitting on the goalie, and got out shot 9-1 in the 3rd while trying to sit on a lead

Those are some game takes I would volunteer

[Strange Brew]

It’s a little grim. Some were ready to write off the Wild 10 days ago when they had a losing streak. Now they’re on fire and creating separation.

It’s still about the Flames. Get to 96 points or so and hope that’s enough.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

xGA …

How many xGA does Pietrangelo’s tap in from 8 inches behind the goalie count for?
Lol. Should be 1 . Of a laughable 2.19

They gave up the first on a ridiculous PP, didn’t challenge Kessel sitting on the goalie, and got out shot 9-1 in the 3rd while trying to sit on a lead

Those are some game takes I would volunteer

I won't get into the xGA argument again ... tired of it. Another game with the goalie giving up a tough more than he should though.

But I wouldn't hang the loss on Vladar for sure. You can't sit on a lead like that and hope for the best.

I think Vladar would like to have that 2nd goal back for sure, and it added momentum to the other side, but as a team you can't have a one shot third period and expect good results.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It’s a little grim. Some were ready to write off the Wild 10 days ago when they had a losing streak. Now they’re on fire and creating separation.

It’s still about the Flames. Get to 96 points or so and hope that’s enough.

Yeah with their rip the number is more like 98-99 now and Calgary has to go .700 the rest of the way.

If they go say .500 in the next three tough games it will be a .750 clip needed over the last 20 games.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

xGA …

How many xGA does Pietrangelo’s tap in from 8 inches behind the goalie count for?
Lol. Should be 1 . Of a laughable 2.19

They gave up the first on a ridiculous PP, didn’t challenge Kessel sitting on the goalie, and got out shot 9-1 in the 3rd while trying to sit on a lead

Those are some game takes I would volunteer

Why do you alway fall in love with Flames backup goaltenders and nonsensically try to defend them? It's weird. Vladar is playing at the level of a below average backup goaltender. That's basically all there is to it.

[Infinit47]

My take is that Sutter is unwilling to adjust his game plan until it's way too late. The team will win the way he deems the right way to play or they will lose. We saw it in the Oilers series and we've seen it all this year.

Last night Lucic-Lewis-Duehr had an XGF% of 19.1%, and that was enough to earn them more 5v5 ice time than the Kadri line or the Lindholm line. Sutter watched that line play and thought they should play the second most 5v5 ice time of all 4 lines.

Is it any wonder we can't hold a lead when Sutter won't shorten his bench and insists on dressing Lucic who flat out can't keep up with the play? Sure, he can be effective on the cycle if he gets in the forecheck quickly enough, but it's impossible to watch him defend without hearing the Benny Hill theme.

Teams like the Flames need to lean on their best players, and Sutter flat out won't do it...unless it's a starting goalie, then he plays them no matter what.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

My take is that Sutter is unwilling to adjust his game plan until it's way too late. The team will win the way he deems the right way to play or they will lose. We saw it in the Oilers series and we've seen it all this year.

Last night Lucic-Lewis-Duehr had an XGF% of 19.1%, and that was enough to earn them more 5v5 ice time than the Kadri line or the Lindholm line. Sutter watched that line play and thought they should play the second most 5v5 ice time of all 4 lines.

Is it any wonder we can't hold a lead when Sutter won't shorten his bench and insists on dressing Lucic who flat out can't keep up with the play? Sure, he can be effective on the cycle if he gets in the forecheck quickly enough, but it's impossible to watch him defend without hearing the Benny Hill theme.

Teams like the Flames need to lean on their best players, and Sutter flat out won't do it...unless it's a starting goalie, then he plays them no matter what.

Certainly a solid argument for Sutter leaning on balance too much ... every player played 11+ minutes of five on five last night.

But Lewis, Lucic and Duehr were all towards the bottom of the list when it came to time on the ice last night. Maybe as trios they were together more than the other trios?

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Certainly a solid argument for Sutter leaning on balance too much ... every player played 11+ minutes of five on five last night.

But Lewis, Lucic and Duehr were all towards the bottom of the list when it came to time on the ice last night. Maybe as trios they were together more than the other trios?

I don’t know but it’s extremely frustrating to see Lucic taking a regular shift when we need a goal or defending a small lead or any situation late in the game

The only thing he does somewhat ok is a hit on a forecheck but it’s usually late anyway

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Certainly a solid argument for Sutter leaning on balance too much ... every player played 11+ minutes of five on five last night.

But Lewis, Lucic and Duehr were all towards the bottom of the list when it came to time on the ice last night. Maybe as trios they were together more than the other trios?

I imagine they don't get split up as much since Lucic/Duehr don't play PP or PK...although Sutter has been putting that line out with the last 10-20 seconds of PP's recently if there is a stoppage.

I think it's a problem that he can't find more ice time for his players who contribute positively, even if they don't score (i.e momentum).

The 4th line may get off the ice without being scored on, but if they just chip the puck out of their end, rush to the bench and then the next shift is rushing back out and immediately on their heels it doesn't contribute to success.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why do you alway fall in love with Flames backup goaltenders and nonsensically try to defend them? It's weird. Vladar is playing at the level of a below average backup goaltender. That's basically all there is to it.

No, that’s not it at all. Again, I have been sympathetic to Marky too.

I mentioned xGA because so many people point to it and say “see? The goalie sucked”

Seriously, a tap in from behind the goalie … how many xGA does it contribute?
In reality, if Pietrangelo is able to take that shot, it is a guaranteed goal

But there is no situation in the model for that situation. It gets lumped in a bucket with shots within a certain distance from the goal


I really am disappointed that your takeaway is that you think I particularly like ####ing backup goalie. Doesn’t matter who is in net, look at the facts.


It’s about people pointing to a model, nodding sagely and lamenting the knowledge it unearths about the state of the goaltending. When in reality, the sample size is such that one outlying event makes the result outside the bounds of the statistical significance

Clearly and quite obviously, we have an outlying event, and the model doesn’t capture it. Last game with Tanev’s own goal, this game with Pietrangelo’s.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

A part of me can't help but wonder if this iteration of the flames would be a juggernaut in the playoffs if they got goaltending figured out.

I realize most people are writing off this season as a middling team that wasn't quite good enough. Analytical darlings with multiple flaws.

But to me, this feels as disappointing as the 2005-06 team that had an easy path to the finals, if only they could beat anahiem. Or the 2008-09 season when injuries decimated a specially constructed flames team down the stretch.

The 22-23 flames: what could have been if only they had decent goaltending.

The only way to find out would be to bring Wolf up now and see if he can catch lightning in a bottle. I don't think it is especially fair to a player at his point in development though.

Pinning the hopes of your season on a rookie goaltenders shoulders could end in disaster just as easily as it could end in success....for me, I would lean towards calling him up though - when you consider the juncture this team and it's roster is at, this isn't really any point in standing pat or selling assets so why not give it a go.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

No, that’s not it at all. Again, I have been sympathetic to Marky too.

I mentioned xGA because so many people point to it and say “see? The goalie sucked”

Seriously, a tap in from behind the goalie … how many xGA does it contribute?
In reality, if Pietrangelo is able to take that shot, it is a guaranteed goal

But there is no situation in the model for that situation. It gets lumped in a bucket with shots within a certain distance from the goal


I really am disappointed that your takeaway is that you think I particularly like ####ing backup goalie. Doesn’t matter who is in net, look at the facts.


It’s about people pointing to a model, nodding sagely and lamenting the knowledge it unearths about the state of the goaltending. When in reality, the sample size is such that one outlying event makes the result outside the bounds of the statistical significance

Clearly and quite obviously, we have an outlying event, and the model doesn’t capture it. Last game with Tanev’s own goal, this game with Pietrangelo’s.

I don't think anyone has to be all that fancy to point out Calgary goaltending hasn't been that good this year.

The models are helpful in my mind because the Flames don't give up a lot of shots and it's unfair to a goaltender to just point at save percentage if you give up say 20 shots but 9 of them are really difficult.

But from the simplest of stats to the most intense of models Calgary goaltending doesn't add up.

And they're getting torn apart specifically in medium danger chances ... not the super easy ones, not the really tough ones.

So pointing to a tap in three times this morning doesn't do it for me. Those happen to all teams and to all goaltenders. It's part of the averaging.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think anyone has to be all that fancy to point out Calgary goaltending hasn't been that good this year.

The models are helpful in my mind because the Flames don't give up a lot of shots and it's unfair to a goaltender to just point at save percentage if you give up say 20 shots but 9 of them are really difficult.

But from the simplest of stats to the most intense of models Calgary goaltending doesn't add up.

And they're getting torn apart specifically in medium danger chances ... not the super easy ones, not the really tough ones.

So pointing to a tap in three times this morning doesn't do it for me. Those happen to all teams and to all goaltenders. It's part of the averaging.

Not really. These guys have each only played 23 and 38 games, respectively

Statistical models are usually declared with confidence intervals such as 90% confidence, 19 times out of 20

In several games, we have been able to point to a few unusual things. Things that happened to the Flames that game, but not to the other team

Like I say, the last 2 games, the actual events of Tanev’s own goal and Pietrangelo’s tap in - we are 2 for 2. The xG contribution for each of those is probably medium danger based on shot location contribution, I am guessing. Not sure. There is no equivalent on the side of the other team

That’s the point

When you have an above average number of instances like this, you simply can’t say it happens to all teams and goaltenders.

Like I said, given the mere fact that we have this conversation repeatedly, you could choose to consider that there may actually be something there. But you don’t.

I don’t think anyone has to be too fancy to say that the team has had lots of defensive lapses this year, or that there have been a good number of unlucky bounces.

I truly believe that the Flames are good at shot suppression on the whole, but that they have a large number of egregious breakdowns that see the shooter given time and space. No model measures it. The danger buckets don’t distinguish it.

That 2 on 1 where Toffoli was looking skyward and the D was on his ass? Cruised right in, picked his spot, and took his time. Zero pressure

But it happens more nights than it should. It’s frustrating to watch. Kadri has delivered so many turnovers lately you’d think he was running a bakery

I know what the stats say, agree that we are not getting a Vezina nom any time here soon, but truly believe both the goalies have gotten a bit of a raw deal here

[GullFoss]

Imo, puck luck is like a random variable - over a long enough sample period it trends to zero.

At that point xGF vs aGF is an indicator of team finishing quality. And xGF vs league average xGF is an indicator of team chance generation. Flames have struggled a bit with both and I think some of that is roster construction (lack of goal scorers) and some of it is the play of specific top-6 forwards (like Huby). But even so, the flames offense is good enough to make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, over a long enough period xGA vs GA is a measure of goalie quality. While xGA vs league-average GA is an indicator of team defense. Here the data suggests the goalies are below average in stopping medium danger opportunities, while the flames are also below average at allowing medium danger opportunities. That's an unfortunate combination. But in aggregate, team defense isn't the issue as the flames are also above average at suppressing high danger and low danger chances, so the team defense in aggregate is -again - good enough to make the playoffs.

While we can find instances of defensive breakdowns or offensive chances missed or great saves or shots the goalie had no chance on, pointing them out is basically cherry picking data points relative to aggregated date. And what's worse, those chery picked data points are already within the sample set used to create the metrics.

The bottom line is that this season, the offense is good enough. The defense is good enough. The goaltending is not good enough. And they're outside of a playoff spot as a result.

[Burning Beard]

Every single team has defensive breakdowns. Last year we were getting the saves when it happened. This year we aren't. A lot of teams do still get the saves when they happen. They are teams in playoff spots. Saying our goalies are getting a raw deal for being expected to make a save seems off to me.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ I hear what you’re saying, but view it differently

We will leave puck luck aside. I agree, own goals should even out, and the Pietrangelo bounce (though there is no reason he should be first on that puck other than the bad change). The point with those two was their contribution to xGA, then people pointing to GA vs xGA in that game, and concluding something about the goalie.

Next, on team D.

I think that the Flames routinely give up chances where the guy has time and space and can place his shot. It is a function of the man on man system. It works well on aggregate, but when it breaks down, it does so badly

No model measures time and space, and shot placement (not origin).

They showed a highlight pack of the Vegas goalie after the first and it was almost every puck low off the pads.

*So much* of goaltending is shot placement

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Every single team has defensive breakdowns. Last year we were getting the saves when it happened. This year we aren't. A lot of teams do still get the saves when they happen. They are teams in playoff spots. Saying our goalies are getting a raw deal for being expected to make a save seems off to me.

Yeah, they are both letting in goals that other goalies make the save on. We see it every game. Yesterday was not a pile of perimeter shots from the Flames, they were leading in scoring shots by a pile.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Every single team has defensive breakdowns. Last year we were getting the saves when it happened. This year we aren't. A lot of teams do still get the saves when they happen. They are teams in playoff spots. Saying our goalies are getting a raw deal for being expected to make a save seems off to me.

Our goalies do make saves. They save most shots they face. Nearly 90 percent