tl;dr
What is good and
reason for optimism is that the goalie problem is fixable. Wolf continues to dominate, Markstrom and Vladar are not this bad and can be expected to be better. I don't know if it will be enough. The defense and offense are both worse than last year but both are good enough to sneak into the playoffs if the goalies can turn it around.
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Did some math based on the supremely excellent
stoppable goals against thread on HFDevils. Basically, one guy has been watching every single goal against for a long time and since the start of the 2021 season, they've been posting their thoughts on every goal against in that thread. I've summed up the Flames related stats over the two years.
I don't have the stats for the whole league but in general,
leaguewide goalies usually give up around 26-28% stoppable goals.
2021-22 (80 gp, I think I missed transcribing two games, not counting playoffs)
Flames Goalies: 192 GA, 56 of them stoppable, 29.1% stoppable goals.
Markstrom 61 gp, 135 GA, 41 stoppable, 30.3 % stoppable, pulled twice
Vladar 21 gp, 57 GA, 15 stoppable, 26.3% stoppable, not pulled
Opposing Goalies: 260 GA, 78 stoppable, 30% stoppable goals, pulled 8 times
2022-23 (57 gp, games through the end of the Flyers loss)
Flames Goalies: 164 GA, 56 of them stoppable. 34.1% stoppable goals.
Markstrom 37 gp, 107 GA, 37 stoppable, 34.6% stoppable, pulled twice
Vladar 21 gp, 54 GA, 19 stoppable, 33.3% stoppable, not pulled
Opposing Goalies: 170 GA, 49 stoppable. 28.8% stoppable, pulled once
Flames goalies as a whole are giving up 17.2% more stoppable goals than last year.
The Flames goalies have given up as many stoppable goals this season as they did all of last year (give or take the two games missed in the data set), and both have seen a decent jump in their stoppable goal %.
Team Defense 2021-22 (80 gp)
136 unstoppable goals given up in 80 games, 1.7 goals per game
Team Defense 2022-23 (57 gp)
108 unstoppable goals given up in 57 games, 1.89 goals per game (11% worse than last year)
The defense is definitely giving up better chances this year. I am not sure if 11% change is not bad, average, or terrible because I have nothing to compare it to. I would think anytime you're getting worse it's definitely not good though.
Team Offense 2021-2022 (80 gp)
183 unstoppable goals for out of 260 total goals. 2.29 unstoppable goals per game.
Team Offense 2022-2023 (57 gp)
121 unstoppable goals for out of 170 total goals, 2.12 unstoppable goals per game
The offense is getting worse this year. It is only 92.6% as effective as last year.
If you take unstoppable goal differential and extrapolate to an 82 game season, 2021-22 paced for a 48.4 goal differential, and 2022-23 is pacing for a 18.86 goal differential, which is still positive. Positive goal differentials almost always make the playoffs.
So this is just the raw stats so far, how does it translate to points gained and lost. I did some figuring and used
an assumption that the Flames had a perfect goalie (one that gives up 0 stoppable goals) in net both years, and compared the actual results to the hypothetical. This might be galaxy brain math but I think it's a good estimate.
2021-22 vs perfect goaltending (80 gp):
13 games where a loss stayed a loss
7 games where a tie stayed a tie
41 games where a win stayed a win
11 games where a goalie turned a tie into a loss
3 games where a goalie turned a win into a tie
5 games where a goalie turned a win into a loss (4 markstrom, 1 vladar)
61/80 games would be unchanged with perfect goaltending.
In the 19 other games, a perfect goalie would have earned the team 24 extra points.
24 points over 80 games equals 0.3 points per game left on the table by the goalies.
2022-23 vs perfect goaltending (57 gp):
11 games where a loss stayed a loss
2 games where a tie stayed a tie
24 games where a win stayed a win
10 games where a goalie turned a tie into a loss
4 games where a goalie turned a win into a tie
6 games where a goalie turned a win into a loss (5 markstrom, 1 vladar)
37/57 games would be unchanged with perfect goaltending.
In the 20 other games a perfect goalie would have earned the team an extra 26 points.
26 points over 57 games equals 0.46 points per game left on the table by the goalies.
Give 2022-2023 last year's goaltending and they likely have 8.9 extra points this year at this point.
The Flames had 77 points through 57 games last year and have 63 points through 57 games this year. Add the goaltending difference in and the team would have 71.9 points.
The offensive and defensive deficiencies compared to last year are combining for the other 5.1 points lost. This isn't terrible. That would be 7.3 points over the season which would have taken the team from 111 points last year to somewhere around 104, in a deadlock with the grease for 1st in the div.
The summary: The goalies are 17% worse, the defense is 11% worse, and the offense is 8% worse than last year. This has caused the team to put up only 81.8% of the standings points compared to last year.
I started writing this analysis before figuring out what the results were and I thought it would be positive in at least some areas. Even opposing goalies have been 4% less leaky this year than last. Not a lot is going right.
Ask me any questions, I have the spreadsheets to run more analysis on.
