With or without you

[Philly06Cup]

See the stone set in your eyes.. See the thorn twist in your side..

Using naturalstattrick.com --> players --> line tool --> [5 on 5, rates] --> (choose team, choose same player twice), I was able to parse out how a team did while a player was on the ice, versus while they were off the ice. Wanted to share some results.





Some conclusions: Seriously, give Backlund more icetime and better linemates. Weegar, quietly good.

[Northendzone]

if i am reading this chart correctly, hubes is having very little impact on the flames.

i hope this is a one season aberration for him. as he would be completely untradeable next season when his new deal kicks in if he stays on this pace

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

if i am reading this chart correctly, hubes is having very little impact on the flames.

i hope this is a one season aberration for him. as he would be completely untradeable next season when his new deal kicks in if he stays on this pace

On top of that, Kadri and Lindholm are both having a negative relative impact on the team.

This season sucks.

Backlund continues to be an absolute beauty though.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

if i am reading this chart correctly, hubes is having very little impact on the flames.

i hope this is a one season aberration for him. as he would be completely untradeable next season when his new deal kicks in if he stays on this pace

Better CF and GF % than Connor freaking McDavid, who is part of a two man show in Edmonton. I think he's doing just fine thank you. Results just haven't been there consistently.

[tvp2003]

I see this as many of the Flames best players not playing particularly well. Which matches the eye test.

It also shows that Huby is playing well defensively (xGA/60 is only 2.16), but that's not why they're paying him $10.5M starting next year.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Better CF and GF % than Connor freaking McDavid, who is part of a two man show in Edmonton. I think he's doing just fine thank you. Results just haven't been there consistently.

The big thing I see in this is that Huby is playing low event hockey. It’s not the worst spot to be in, but maybe not the best?

[neo45]

I’m almost afraid to ask, but what’s Lucic?

[bdubbs]

Backlund has historically always been strong in his advanced stats, but that doesn't stop his detractors from bringing up his salary, line slotting, etc.

I love Backlund.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The big thing I see in this is that Huby is playing low event hockey. It’s not the worst spot to be in, but maybe not the best?

He's doing what the coach asks of him. I'll leave it at that.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

He's doing what the coach asks of him. I'll leave it at that.

I think the coach wants to see more production and offense from him. But I have no idea what he is telling him.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

I was able to parse out how a team did while a player was on the ice, versus while they were off the ice. Wanted to share some results.

I appreciate the effort and it matches the eye test.

I just wanted to point out that Moneypuck also already does that at least for the expected goals on/off ice. Might save you some time, give you a different look, and some other interesting stats.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Better CF and GF % than Connor freaking McDavid, who is part of a two man show in Edmonton. I think he's doing just fine thank you. Results just haven't been there consistently.

I've been meaning to ask you -What was Huberdeau like in Florida? Did he drive play? Was he noticeable or did he quietly put up points?

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by neo45

I’m almost afraid to ask, but what’s Lucic?

Great in the room.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Confirms the eye test

Hubes isn't really making a difference, team just treads water with him, one might say "invisible" out there

Lindholm isn't having a good year, and needs to elevate. still a skilled player but looking like Gaudreau or Tkachuk maybe have been the engine on his line

Backlund has steadily been the teams best pure center and continues to be, elevates his linemates and has a positive impact on the team

Weegar is a quietly good defensemen, and I am okay with the contract extension the Flames gave him

[Monahammer]

I still think there's a massive chemistry problem up front. Our good players are fine, statistically they all are playing above water, but the sum of the parts is worse than the individuals in this case.

Lindholm-Toffoli, for example, IMO fit together like two left gloves. It doesn't really matter what you put on the wing, these two players don't fit style wise well together. And yet they've been together all year because the other parts also don't fit well together.

Lindholm is a shooting minded, two way centre. He needs someone who will carry the puck up ice, and another someone who will dig the puck out of the tricky areas and muck up behind the net. (Gaudreau-Tkachuk, or Gaudreau-Monahan formerly filling these roles respectively.) He can cover for guys with defensive shortcomings because he's usually hanging out pretty high to get back on D, and also because those are the good shooting lanes.

Toffoli is pretty much the same player just on the RW. Hangs out in the same areas. Typically gets back on D pretty quick.

The problem is that these two guys are mediocre enough at the other elements of the game that they can at least play together. So they're not tripping over each other (like Mangi-Kadri for example.) Speaking of which, Mangi-Kadri-Dube also are all essentially the same player. While Huby is in the same vein of player as Lindy-Toffoli, just with a pass first mentality instead of shoot. For diggers/muckers, we have Coleman and Lucic.

We are seriously lacking a player who can carry the puck up ice consistently. And we are lacking a really good muck-it up, board battle talent.

It's getting too late for new line combos, but it's pretty desperately needed imo.

This is who I would try, but I truly just think the mix is off. We need to shuffle our deck chairs.

Speedy/ tenacious - responsible two way - mucker/puck collector

Mangiapane-Lindy-Coleman
Huberdeau-Kadri-Ruzicka
Pelletier-Backlund-Dube

[Philly06Cup]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I appreciate the effort and it matches the eye test.

I just wanted to point out that Moneypuck also already does that at least for the expected goals on/off ice. Might save you some time, give you a different look, and some other interesting stats.

Where do you see WOWY on Moneypuck?

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I still think there's a massive chemistry problem up front. Our good players are fine, statistically they all are playing above water, but the sum of the parts is worse than the individuals in this case.

Lindholm-Toffoli, for example, IMO fit together like two left gloves. It doesn't really matter what you put on the wing, these two players don't fit style wise well together. And yet they've been together all year because the other parts also don't fit well together.

Lindholm is a shooting minded, two way centre. He needs someone who will carry the puck up ice, and another someone who will dig the puck out of the tricky areas and muck up behind the net. (Gaudreau-Tkachuk, or Gaudreau-Monahan formerly filling these roles respectively.) He can cover for guys with defensive shortcomings because he's usually hanging out pretty high to get back on D, and also because those are the good shooting lanes.

Toffoli is pretty much the same player just on the RW. Hangs out in the same areas. Typically gets back on D pretty quick.

The problem is that these two guys are mediocre enough at the other elements of the game that they can at least play together. So they're not tripping over each other (like Mangi-Kadri for example.) Speaking of which, Mangi-Kadri-Dube also are all essentially the same player. While Huby is in the same vein of player as Lindy-Toffoli, just with a pass first mentality instead of shoot. For diggers/muckers, we have Coleman and Lucic.

We are seriously lacking a player who can carry the puck up ice consistently. And we are lacking a really good muck-it up, board battle talent.

It's getting too late for new line combos, but it's pretty desperately needed imo.

This is who I would try, but I truly just think the mix is off. We need to shuffle our deck chairs.

Speedy/ tenacious - responsible two way - mucker/puck collector

Mangiapane-Lindy-Coleman
Huberdeau-Kadri-Ruzicka
Pelletier-Backlund-Dube

I don't disagree with your analysis but this lineup puts the team's leading (tied) goal scorer on the 4th line.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I still think there's a massive chemistry problem up front. Our good players are fine, statistically they all are playing above water, but the sum of the parts is worse than the individuals in this case.

...

It's getting too late for new line combos, but it's pretty desperately needed imo.

I agree -- at some point I think you have to consider separating the Backlund line because the Lindholm and Kadri lines are just average when they need to be better than that. However, they don't have the benefit of time for massive line juggling at the point in the season, especially when they've still been "okay" overall (largely lead by the Backlund line).

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Mangiapane-Lindy-Coleman
Huberdeau-Kadri-Ruzicka
Pelletier-Backlund-Dube

You're missing Toffoli speaking of which, the problem is that while Toffoli and Lindholm haven't been great (they weren't last year either when Johnny was the other winger), Toffoli is arguably an even worse fit with Kadri. I'd like to see:

Huby - Backlund - Toffoli
Pelletier - Lindholm - Dube
Mangiapane - Kadri - Coleman

Won't ever happen, but I don't think Lindholm/Toffoli and Kadri/Huberdeau have done enough as pairs to necessarily keep them together.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

I agree -- at some point I think you have to consider separating the Backlund line because the Lindholm and Kadri lines are just average when they need to be better than that. However, they don't have the benefit of time for massive line juggling at the point in the season, especially when they've still been "okay" overall (largely lead by the Backlund line).



You're missing Toffoli speaking of which, the problem is that while Toffoli and Lindholm haven't been great (they weren't last year either when Johnny was the other winger), Toffoli is arguably an even worse fit with Kadri. I'd like to see:

Huby - Backlund - Toffoli
Pelletier - Lindholm - Dube
Mangiapane - Kadri - Coleman

Won't ever happen, but I don't think Lindholm/Toffoli and Kadri/Huberdeau have done enough as pairs to necessarily keep them together.

For the sake of mixing things up, I'd love to see Sutter try this:

Huberdeau - Dube - Pelletier
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman
Toffoli - Kadri - Lindholm


It worth a shot to see if Dube and Pelletier can use their speed and tenacity to open up space and be a poor man's version of Bennett and Duclair.

It also potentially gives Toffoli and Lindholm a puck carrier

[SuperMatt18]

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Dube
Pelletier - Kadri - Toffoli
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman

I still want to see Dube with Huberdeau, and think we need to give Lindholm and Huberdeau another look at some point here.