Absolutely wild thread on the "human wave" techniques the Wagner group employs to make gains.
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Whatever happens, the group must reach the firing line. "Whatever happens" is not a turn of phrase, but a task, the failure to complete which will end in execution [by Wagner], regardless of any [mitigating] factors.
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Groups of 8 people go in waves - usually 4 waves are prepared for the attack. But there have been cases in Soledar where it took 14 waves to take one area. Of course there were survivors, but the casualties were a hundred or more. That's for one section.
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And the newcomers from the penal colonies are very well disciplined: first they are shown video executions, then very soon they encounter their first real examples, and then they get used to such discipline completely.
The Wikipedia article of the incident is well done. Much failure on the part of Croatia, Hungary and Romania, but also NATO as a whole. Their systems are integrated, yet no one shot the thing down.
This was interesting about the incident actually:
I wonder if the Russian/Ukrainian military is that dumb that they programmed the wrong neighborhood into the drone. Doesn't explain why the thing didn't detonate though.
The whole thing was really fishy and has fueled conspiracy theories. The fact they classified the information quickly and no one wanted to talk about it, doesn't help. I think Spain was the only other NATO country not directly affected that demanded transparency.
I personally don't buy the Yarun/Jarun argument because it would not have been a prime target in March 2022, only a month into the war. The other thing is that given the maximum range of the drone, it would have had to been launched from Western Ukraine, or a small portion of Belarus. Almost everyone agrees that it was launched from Ukraine given the trajectory (Romanian and Hungarian airspace). Russian military control in Western Ukraine was low at the time, making it less likely they launched it, but not impossible. If it was an accident, the kind of error it would take to have it sent so far off course would have been pretty gross.
It seems that this was actually a Tupolev Tu-141 “Strizh” reconnaissance drone that must have severely malfunctioned and crossed over the entirety of Hungary or parts of neighboring countries and into Croatia from Ukraine. Flying direct from Ukraine’s border to Zagreb is nearly a 350-mile journey. It has been reported that Ukraine has been putting the high-speed, Soviet-era drones to work in recent days following Russia’s invasion of the country. Ukraine is the only known current operator of the Tu-141.
One conspiracy theory is that Ukraine did it as a failed false flag attack to try and force NATO into an Article 5 situation. The other theory is that Russia did it as a warning to NATO's smaller partners that NATO couldn't protect them and that if things escalated, they could hit cities in that region easily.
Personally, I think the latter theory has potential (possibly from Transnistria), and whatever happened, it unfortunately did shake some of the resolve in the region to do anything that escalates the conflict. I also think that Milanovic took it personally that it was brushed under the rug quickly. While the president is largely a figurehead role in Croatia with little executive power, national security is in his wheelhouse.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 02-03-2023 at 09:37 AM.
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So Germany just approved export of Leopard 1s to Ukraine with the intention of refurbing and sending 88 of the tanks from storage.
Too bad Canada didn't keep the Leopard 1C2s we had around in storage a bit longer, our last 45 were slated to be expended as targets in December 2021 when the sale to Jordan fell through. What a waste, they could have done some good in Ukraine. I wonder if we actually blew them all up yet or if they can be shipped to Germany for refurb. https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...r-rheinmetall/
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New US $2.2B aid package to Ukraine will include GLSDB missiles that can fired by HIMARs. These will have a range of over 150KM compared to the 80KM the current GMLRS missiles the Ukrainians currently have with their HIMARs.
New ranges Ukrainians will be able to hit based on the current frontlines
Short video on how this will impact the battlefield. Aside from range improvements, they will be able to fired from any angle and travel in completely non-linear flight path to the target, making counter battery fire by Russians impossible.
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New US $2.2B aid package to Ukraine will include GLSDB missiles that can fired by HIMARs. These will have a range of over 150KM compared to the 80KM the current GMLRS missiles the Ukrainians currently have with their HIMARs.
New ranges Ukrainians will be able to hit based on the current frontlines
Short video on how this will impact the battlefield. Aside from range improvements, they will be able to fired from any angle and travel in completely non-linear flight path to the target, making counter battery fire by Russians impossible.
Beau chimes in
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I'm super confused about that beau guy lol. Don't know what to make of him. He has no military experience, just talks left-ish (not that I disagree with that), but has a strange history
I'm super confused about that beau guy lol. Don't know what to make of him. He has no military experience, just talks left-ish (not that I disagree with that), but has a strange history
He leaned right until Trump happened
Edit, I tried to find the vid but couldn't but he mentioned once he was a military contractor at one point and came from a military family.
Last edited by Snuffleupagus; 02-06-2023 at 03:27 AM.
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To me Beau is a good example of how people don't actually fall neatly into the the current bipolar politics.
The vibe I'm getting is that he might actually self-identify with something like libertarian socialism, or socialist anarchism. He's clearly been influenced by both anarchist and libertarian thinking in any case, among other things.
Some branch of anti-state thinking in any case, hence "of the fifth column".
Last edited by Itse; 02-06-2023 at 03:25 AM.
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I'm super confused about that beau guy lol. Don't know what to make of him. He has no military experience, just talks left-ish (not that I disagree with that), but has a strange history
Justin King (Beau of the Fifth Column) was born into a military family and served six years in the US military, leaving with a rank of sergeant. He spent an undisclosed amount of time as civilian contractor and did jail time as result of some of that work. He is what he calls an adversarial journalist.
Seeing that earthquake thread just makes me so angry at the Russians that they continue this madness in Ukraine. The world governments should (and can) work together for the betterment of all nations, yet the Russians, with their sizable population and resources are busy attacking a neighbor in a land grab.
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A fascinating telling by Naftali Bennett (former PM of Israel) on his direct involvement in negotiations for peace between Zelensky, Putin, Macron, Scholz, Johnson, and the White House in the early days of the war.
Starts from around 2:30 and worth watching for about 30-40 minutes. Subtitles required for English.
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"If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?"
A fascinating telling by Naftali Bennett (former PM of Israel) on his direct involvement in negotiations for peace between Zelensky, Putin, Macron, Scholz, Johnson, and the White House in the early days of the war.
Starts from around 2:30 and worth watching for about 30-40 minutes. Subtitles required for English.
For a quick second I thought it was a Hot Ones episode.
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Pretty big commitment of older Leo 1 tanks for Ukraine by Germany, though they're gonna be a bit under-armored and under-gunned. If they're kept in a support role, this will be fine though. https://twitter.com/user/status/1623006091113115671
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178 Leos? Man this war is staggeringly big. I just hope with the influx of all these heavy weapons, they Allies can quickly vanquish the Russians and send them home. Then build the greatest Maginot line possible on the border. Russians should stay in Russia. Forever.
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178 Leos? Man this war is staggeringly big. I just hope with the influx of all these heavy weapons, they Allies can quickly vanquish the Russians and send them home. Then build the greatest Maginot line possible on the border. Russians should stay in Russia. Forever.
Keep in mind these are really old tanks that can't really be used against Russia's front line stuff, but will be fine taking out BMPs, fortifications, and old T-62/T-64s just fine. And this is what Germany can deliver over the entire year. Rhinemetall has said they won't be able to ramp up that quickly and the first deliveries are months out.
Russia knows the western tanks are coming from all the public announcements, but they also know all the new equipment will take refurb time and training, which is why they are planning to zerg rush as many as 300K conscripts before the tanks show up en masse. I imagine a lot of these Leos will end up just replacing destroyed equipment the Ukrainians have lost or supplying one of the many new Ukrainian units that have formed since the start of the war. Another question is now how much territory will Ukraine lose buying time for all this new stuff to arrive and if Western allies can make the aggressive delivery schedules.
