Former Flames player performance thread - 2022/23 season

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Not sure what you are watching but that isn't the case at all...it may seem that way because so many end up in the back of the net, most teams get big saves

I wouldn't dismiss it so quickly. Bingo looks at that data more than anyone and he will tell you that not all high danger chances are created equal.

You can't dispute the data that is out there. Per natural stat trick, Flames are 6th best in the NHL for high danger chances against per 60, adjusted for score and venue (no idea how they do that). Oilers are 7th best.

Are we also calling Oilers elite defensively?

And the actual differences are small. Difference between Flame and middle of the league is less than one HDCA per 60. So if you accept that not all those chances are created equal, there is a lot of room to suggest that it is not the number of HDCA but the quality that is important.

There is at least enough room for interpretation that I'm not going to ridicule someone who thinks Flames are giving up higher quality chances.

Frankly the difference between 11.5 high danger chances against per game vs 12 against is almost imperceptible. I'm skeptical if someone thinks that is easily observed just by watching.

IMO there is lot of room in the data and the "eye test" to come to the conclusion that suits you.

[dino7c]

I don't need to do many mental gymnastics to know that Markstom has been FAR below average this season (he is probably my favorite player) let alone his level that should be above average.

Vladar has been pretty average and the team is on division winning pace when he is in goal

For me its not that hard to conclude that the Flames biggest issue this season has been goaltending....not sure why this is all in the former player thread lol

Flames aren't the 95 Devils but anyone who thinks they allow an inordinate amount of grade A chances against doesn't watch many other teams or has some serious bias.

If Korpisalo can put up a .909 in Columbus I don't want to hear any excuses for Flames goalies about too many hard chances

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I don't need to do many mental gymnastics to know that Markstom has been FAR below average this season let alone his level that should be above average.

Vladar has been pretty average and the team is on division winning pace when he is in goal

For me its not that hard to conclude that the Flames biggest issue this season has been goaltending....not sure why this is all in the former player thread lol

Goaltending is holding them back from being a handful of points better and in a better spot in the battle for the tops in the division but I think they are missing a superstar forward who gives the team a legit top option and top line from being one of the elite teams in the league. If Huberdeau had an extra 25pts and playing to a 100pt pace like we hoped and Markstrom was playing significantly better (.920sv%) this team is likely first in the west.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Goaltending is holding them back from being a handful of points better and in a better spot in the battle for the tops in the division but I think they are missing a superstar forward who gives the team a legit top option and top line from being one of the elite teams in the league. If Huberdeau had an extra 25pts and playing to a 100pt pace like we hoped and Markstrom was playing significantly better (.920sv%) this team is likely first in the west.

There could definitely be improvements elsewhere for sure...the team is on a 111 point pace with Vladar though and its really not that small of a sample size I don't think Vladar has been anything crazy or unsustainable himself, just steady.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I see the Panthers as having extended their period of having top young players who can potentially contend and got someone to add some more swagger to a leadership group that might have been seen as a bit soft after last year. The Flames went all-in on near-term opportunity with a potentially ugly future in a couple of years. Neither move was unreasonable. If the Flames don't get some great results this year or next, it looks bad for them. The Panthers have longer to get the results they want from the trade.

But being without their 1st for 5 years or so?

that's pretty brutal and will hurt them for talent in the long run

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

That doesn't match the eye test at all

Most nights it seems the opposing team has the greater quantity of high danger chances even if the Flames have the share of chances overall

A lot of 2 on 1s, 3 on 1s and breakaways generally

Not sure how they're counting it but i doubt the Flames are actually 5th best at suppressing those

It could be like the person above said, that a lot of ones that sre happening (even if limited) are going in/being converted on

But that's not true.

The stats are pretty clearly defined ...

For giving up shots in the home plate area the Flames are 4th best.
For giving up shots in the home plate area on a pass/rebound/deflection the Flames are 5th best.

One leak in the system is a breakaway. If you get a breakaway you would likely end up in home plate but not on a pass/rebound/deflection so it wouldn't be high danger.

But the Flames are top 5 in just scoring chances too, so included.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I wouldn't dismiss it so quickly. Bingo looks at that data more than anyone and he will tell you that not all high danger chances are created equal.

You can't dispute the data that is out there. Per natural stat trick, Flames are 6th best in the NHL for high danger chances against per 60, adjusted for score and venue (no idea how they do that). Oilers are 7th best.

Are we also calling Oilers elite defensively?

And the actual differences are small. Difference between Flame and middle of the league is less than one HDCA per 60. So if you accept that not all those chances are created equal, there is a lot of room to suggest that it is not the number of HDCA but the quality that is important.

There is at least enough room for interpretation that I'm not going to ridicule someone who thinks Flames are giving up higher quality chances.

Frankly the difference between 11.5 high danger chances against per game vs 12 against is almost imperceptible. I'm skeptical if someone thinks that is easily observed just by watching.

IMO there is lot of room in the data and the "eye test" to come to the conclusion that suits you.

Lots of room to improve for the data system for sure. And yeah you have different stripes of high danger chances within that stat and different shooters getting those chances.

The high danger model does account for the more dangerous plays by insisting they be on a pass/rebound/tip so they're already elevated above a scoring chance.

To be a team that gives up less of both is a good thing no matter how you look at it in my opinion.

And honestly I'm not interested in someone that is using an eye test to come to the conclusion that "suits" them. What the hell is that?

I went a decade arguing with Lanny on here over what he saw compared to every one else. Thank God I can just point to stats now. Less aggravating in handling the extreme see what I want to see viewer.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lots of room to improve for the data system for sure. And yeah you have different stripes of high danger chances within that stat and different shooters getting those chances.

The high danger model does account for the more dangerous plays by insisting they be on a pass/rebound/tip so they're already elevated above a scoring chance.

To be a team that gives up less of both is a good thing no matter how you look at it in my opinion.

And honestly I'm not interested in someone that is using an eye test to come to the conclusion that "suits" them. What the hell is that?

I went a decade arguing with Lanny on here over what he saw compared to every one else. Thank God I can just point to stats now. Less aggravating in handling the extreme see what I want to see viewer.

What are the data collection and classification mechanisms for the data in these stats?

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

But being without their 1st for 5 years or so?

that's pretty brutal and will hurt them for talent in the long run

They only traded one first in the deal for Tkachuk.

Can you imagine how bad it would be going into 4 years of no first round pick with an aging roster and no young star player locked up long-term?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lots of room to improve for the data system for sure. And yeah you have different stripes of high danger chances within that stat and different shooters getting those chances.

The high danger model does account for the more dangerous plays by insisting they be on a pass/rebound/tip so they're already elevated above a scoring chance.

To be a team that gives up less of both is a good thing no matter how you look at it in my opinion.

And honestly I'm not interested in someone that is using an eye test to come to the conclusion that "suits" them. What the hell is that?

I went a decade arguing with Lanny on here over what he saw compared to every one else. Thank God I can just point to stats now. Less aggravating in handling the extreme see what I want to see viewer.

Of course, any model that tries to account for strength of shooter will end up being subjective because then the framer has to make a heirarchy of shooters in the NHL. If it's McDavid or Stamkos or Matthews, fine. But where does, say, Brandon Saad fit?

[FanIn80]

Well... here we are at the All-star break (almost), and Matthew Tkachuk is 6th overall in points, with 25 goals, 41 assists and 66 points in 49 games. The next closest to him in Florida is Barkov with 47 points and then Verhaeghe and Montour with 43 points each.

The guy who would be "useless without Gadureau pumping up his stats" is scoring goals in 51% of his games, while averaging 0.84 assists and 1.35 points per game. He's on pace for 42 goals, 69 assists and 111 points - which is even better than last season. He just turned 25 last month, and is in the first year of an 8 year contract at 9.5M per year.

Yes, as someone here keeps reminding us, Florida is possibly going to miss the playoffs... but this isn't basketball is it? One player can't win a team a Stanley Cup (just ask Jarome and/or Kipper), so I don't see how Florida not making the playoffs is going to be Tkachuk's fault. If anything, I see this as Bill Zito recognizing very early that his roster wasn't built for the playoffs, and choosing to retool now vs re-signing two players that were part of the "not built for the playoffs" group.

Matthew Tkachuk is a 100pt superstar in this league, and while he didn't do much for us in his early playoff games, his 10 points in 12 games last season show (as with a lot of young players) that he's starting to figure that out as well. People forget that one of his big attractions as a draft candidate was his play in big games and in the playoffs. He was the captain of the London Knights and scored both the opening goal and the OT winner in the Memorial Cup final to win it all before going into the draft.

I mean, look at his playoffs stat line that season: 18GP 20G 20A 40P 42PIM +23. 40 points in 18 games in the playoffs as the Captain of his team, ending with the OT winner in the final game. There is no doubt in my mind that he's going to become just as dangerous in the NHL playoffs once his comfort level gets there.

Just remember that even Iginla wasn't Iginla until he became Iginla. Some players, like Crosby and McDavid, just hit the ice flying and put up points from day one. Others, like Iggy and Tkachuk, need time to grow into their skates a bit before they realize how good they really are.

Johnny was entertaining and fun and obviously very very good in his own right, but losing Matthew Tkachuk is the one that really hurts. You don't get to draft a player like that very often, and you get to trade for them even less often. He should have been our Captain and the guy we should have started to (re)build this team around going into this season.

Anyway, I know there's a few people here that are going to have fun tearing this post apart... but I'm not an idiot, and neither are all the media who commented on how good Tkachuk is when the trade went down.

[dino7c]

This reads like they chose to trade him...they didn't he refused to sign here

Also, nobody is blaming them missing the playoffs on Tkachuk...they did give up a lot from a presidents trophy winning team though. "Retooling" after trading years worth of 1sts including an unprotected 2023 first is incredibly risky.

Time will tell if they will be a contending team again in the next while...I suspect they will have a hard time getting there without any draft capital.

The older teams like Boston and Tampa are way better than them and teams like Buffalo and Detroit have far better prospects and young players and will only be adding.

IF the Panthers go on a run in the next few years it was a good move FOR THEM...but if they don't it can certainly be argued they should have ran it back. Time will tell.

I can assure everyone Zito didn't expect to miss the playoffs with a 2023 first in Montreal unprotected...this was not the plan.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Well... here we are at the All-star break (almost), and Matthew Tkachuk is 6th overall in points, with 25 goals, 41 assists and 66 points in 49 games. The next closest to him in Florida is Barkov with 47 points and then Verhaeghe and Montour with 43 points each.

The guy who would be "useless without Gadureau pumping up his stats" is scoring goals in 51% of his games, while averaging 0.84 assists and 1.35 points per game. He's on pace for 42 goals, 69 assists and 111 points - which is even better than last season. He just turned 25 last month, and is in the first year of an 8 year contract at 9.5M per year.

Yes, as someone here keeps reminding us, Florida is possibly going to miss the playoffs... but this isn't basketball is it? One player can't win a team a Stanley Cup (just ask Jarome and/or Kipper), so I don't see how Florida not making the playoffs is going to be Tkachuk's fault. If anything, I see this as Bill Zito recognizing very early that his roster wasn't built for the playoffs, and choosing to retool now vs re-signing two players that were part of the "not built for the playoffs" group.

Matthew Tkachuk is a 100pt superstar in this league, and while he didn't do much for us in his early playoff games, his 10 points in 12 games last season show (as with a lot of young players) that he's starting to figure that out as well. People forget that one of his big attractions as a draft candidate was his play in big games and in the playoffs. He was the captain of the London Knights and scored both the opening goal and the OT winner in the Memorial Cup final to win it all before going into the draft.

I mean, look at his playoffs stat line that season: 18GP 20G 20A 40P 42PIM +23. 40 points in 18 games in the playoffs as the Captain of his team, ending with the OT winner in the final game. There is no doubt in my mind that he's going to become just as dangerous in the NHL playoffs once his comfort level gets there.

Just remember that even Iginla wasn't Iginla until he became Iginla. Some players, like Crosby and McDavid, just hit the ice flying and put up points from day one. Others, like Iggy and Tkachuk, need time to grow into their skates a bit before they realize how good they really are.

Johnny was entertaining and fun and obviously very very good in his own right, but losing Matthew Tkachuk is the one that really hurts. You don't get to draft a player like that very often, and you get to trade for them even less often. He should have been our Captain and the guy we should have started to (re)build this team around going into this season.

Anyway, I know there's a few people here that are going to have fun tearing this post apart... but I'm not an idiot, and neither are all the media who commented on how good Tkachuk is when the trade went down.

Tkachuk is great...but one thing it does show to me is how important TOI can be to influencing individual production.

Tkachuk is actually down in points per 60: 4.25 to 3.96

But he's playing almost 3 minutes more per game: 17:53 to 20:22

And for Huberdeau the inverse is the same.

His points per 60 is down: 4.4 to 2.5. And his ice time is down about 2:30 per game 19:25 to 16:58. So double whammy on his total production.

Interestingly enough after a slow start for Huberdeau, him and Tkachuk are almost equal over the last 25 games at Even Strength - with PP production being the big difference.

Even Strength stats (Huberdeau vs Tkachuk)

Goals: 5 v 5
Assists: 10 v 11
Points: 15 vs 16
Points per 60: 2.68 vs 2.59

PP Stats:

Goals: 1 vs 7
Assists: 2 vs 5
Points: 3 vs 12

This team really needs to figure out it's PP and get it going. And to me that starts with not playing Huberdeau in net front, when he was the second best playmaker in the league on the PP the three seasons prior to this one.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Well... here we are at the All-star break (almost), and Matthew Tkachuk is 6th overall in points, with 25 goals, 41 assists and 66 points in 49 games. The next closest to him in Florida is Barkov with 47 points and then Verhaeghe and Montour with 43 points each.

The guy who would be "useless without Gadureau pumping up his stats" is scoring goals in 51% of his games, while averaging 0.84 assists and 1.35 points per game. He's on pace for 42 goals, 69 assists and 111 points - which is even better than last season. He just turned 25 last month, and is in the first year of an 8 year contract at 9.5M per year.

Yes, as someone here keeps reminding us, Florida is possibly going to miss the playoffs... but this isn't basketball is it? One player can't win a team a Stanley Cup (just ask Jarome and/or Kipper), so I don't see how Florida not making the playoffs is going to be Tkachuk's fault. If anything, I see this as Bill Zito recognizing very early that his roster wasn't built for the playoffs, and choosing to retool now vs re-signing two players that were part of the "not built for the playoffs" group.

Matthew Tkachuk is a 100pt superstar in this league, and while he didn't do much for us in his early playoff games, his 10 points in 12 games last season show (as with a lot of young players) that he's starting to figure that out as well. People forget that one of his big attractions as a draft candidate was his play in big games and in the playoffs. He was the captain of the London Knights and scored both the opening goal and the OT winner in the Memorial Cup final to win it all before going into the draft.

I mean, look at his playoffs stat line that season: 18GP 20G 20A 40P 42PIM +23. 40 points in 18 games in the playoffs as the Captain of his team, ending with the OT winner in the final game. There is no doubt in my mind that he's going to become just as dangerous in the NHL playoffs once his comfort level gets there.

Just remember that even Iginla wasn't Iginla until he became Iginla. Some players, like Crosby and McDavid, just hit the ice flying and put up points from day one. Others, like Iggy and Tkachuk, need time to grow into their skates a bit before they realize how good they really are.

Johnny was entertaining and fun and obviously very very good in his own right, but losing Matthew Tkachuk is the one that really hurts. You don't get to draft a player like that very often, and you get to trade for them even less often. He should have been our Captain and the guy we should have started to (re)build this team around going into this season.

Anyway, I know there's a few people here that are going to have fun tearing this post apart... but I'm not an idiot, and neither are all the media who commented on how good Tkachuk is when the trade went down.

Well that's just too easy, he didn't want to be a Flames.

I don't disagree with anything else you wrote, but you missed out that one single overriding fact. Kind of an important detail to leave out.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Tkachuk is an elite player and he's produced at a higher level than I thought he would absent Gadreau. I figured he'd be PPG but he's way above that.

But his playoff stats are inflated by a single game. He got 3 goals in the 9-6 Game 1.
In the rest of that series, he had 1 assist in 4 games. He was a non factor for the bulk of the Oiler series.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by dino7c

This reads like they chose to trade him...they didn't he refused to sign here

Also, nobody is blaming them missing the playoffs on Tkachuk...they did give up a lot from a presidents trophy winning team though. "Retooling" after trading years worth of 1sts including an unprotected 2023 first is incredibly risky.

Time will tell if they will be a contending team again in the next while...I suspect they will have a hard time getting there without any draft capital.

The older teams like Boston and Tampa are way better than them and teams like Buffalo and Detroit have far better prospects and young players and will only be adding.

My own personal opinion (based on his post-trade interviews) is that he left becuase of the media here and not agreeing with Darryl Sutter's system. I just wonder if, when he picked the President's Trophy winners as a possible destination, he realized they'd be sending major pieces back the other way.

[SuperMatt18]

Actually just wanted to top up on the note about the teams Even Strength production in the last 25 games - where it's quite strong for all of our top 9.

Even Strength:
Lindholm: 18 (19th)
Toffoli: 16 (31st)
Tkachuk: 16
Huberdeau: 15 (T-42)
Dube:15 (T-42)
Mangiapane: 14 (T-57)
Kadri: 14 (T-57)
Backlund: 14 (T-57)
Coleman: 12 (T-97)
Gaudreau: 11

So our 8 best forwards are all in the top 97 of Even Strength production over the last 25 games. Which in a 32 team league is kind of crazy - there are technically 96 first line forwards in the NHL.

This team really needs to figure out it's PP. The Even Strength production is there (top 10) but the lack of PP production is a killer, that an goaltending still being .893 over the last 25 games.

The PP should be solvable though - the talent is there, they need to figure out a 5 man unit and system that works.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

My own personal opinion (based on his post-trade interviews) is that he left becuase of the media here and not agreeing with Darryl Sutter's system. I just wonder if, when he picked the President's Trophy winners as a possible destination, he realized they'd be sending major pieces back the other way.

I think he chose life in Miami as much as he chose the team.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Tkachuk is an elite player and he's produced at a higher level than I thought he would absent Gadreau. I figured he'd be PPG but he's way above that.

But his playoff stats are inflated by a single game. He got 3 goals in the 9-6 Game 1.
In the rest of that series, he had 1 assist in 4 games. He was a non factor for the bulk of the Oiler series.

He was largely a non-factor in most Flames playoff games. I'm curious to see if he can elevate his game in the playoffs on a different team but we may have to wait a year or more to see that.

[dino7c]

Honestly how many points do you guys think Tkachuk would have right now if he stayed? Likely on a line with Mangiapane and Lindholm? I think he would have good totals but certainly lower totals. Panthers are one of the best teams in the league if you are looking for individual production.