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Old 01-29-2023, 11:26 AM   #1161
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111 point pace with Vladar in net...and he has been pretty average

Markstrom has basically blown the season so far... Chicago was a bad game but the D has been fine overall. Flames don't give up much
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Old 01-29-2023, 11:28 AM   #1162
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111 point pace with Vladar in net...and he has been pretty average

Markstrom has basically blown the season so far... Chicago was a bad game but the D has been fine overall. Flames don't give up much
They don't give up much quantity, but they give up A+ quality

Probably makes it harder to make stops when there are stretches at the other end in between
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Old 01-29-2023, 11:35 AM   #1163
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Yeah you can’t just take the W/L record over 19 games and ignore everything else because it suits your purpose. Reminiscent of three seasons ago when some wanted to look at the W/L record under Ward and ignore everything else.

Columbus game is an example. Inferior team, Flames dominated possession and had great metrics. Gave up too many great chances and almost blew it.

Has the D been “fine”? The way this team is built, you’re hoping for better than that.
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Old 01-29-2023, 12:25 PM   #1164
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Yeah you can’t just take the W/L record over 19 games and ignore everything else because it suits your purpose. Reminiscent of three seasons ago when some wanted to look at the W/L record under Ward and ignore everything else.

Columbus game is an example. Inferior team, Flames dominated possession and had great metrics. Gave up too many great chances and almost blew it.

Has the D been “fine”? The way this team is built, you’re hoping for better than that.
They didn't give up much...two PP goals and one of them was poor

Anyway I am not talking about a few games...the Flames overall haven't allowed a lot this season...they don't allow a lot of HD. Goaltending has been poor-average.
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:15 PM   #1165
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They don't give up much quantity, but they give up A+ quality

Probably makes it harder to make stops when there are stretches at the other end in between
They're 5th in HDCA60 so that's not true either.

Now better stats may suggest someday that the Flames under a better stats regime gave up more super duper high danger chances against, but the objective comparison says they're an elite team defensively.
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:24 PM   #1166
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Flames are 17th in goals against after 50 games. Exactly middle of the pack. 16th in goals for.

Middling team with spotty goaltending. Exactly what it looks like on the ice.

Good news is if goaltending improves for the last 32 games we should be alright.

If a few players could get closer to past performance we're laughing.
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:46 PM   #1167
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They're 5th in HDCA60 so that's not true either.

Now better stats may suggest someday that the Flames under a better stats regime gave up more super duper high danger chances against, but the objective comparison says they're an elite team defensively.
Can’t dispute the numbers but “elite” doesn’t seem to describe what I am watching some nights.

When chances are so high danger that they end up in your net, maybe it follows that you allow fewer of them.

Some high danger chances result in continuing zone time and another chance.
Some end up with a face off at center ice.
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Old 01-29-2023, 02:59 PM   #1168
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Can’t dispute the numbers but “elite” doesn’t seem to describe what I am watching some nights.

When chances are so high danger that they end up in your net, maybe it follows that you allow fewer of them.

Some high danger chances result in continuing zone time and another chance.
Some end up with a face off at center ice.
What bugs me is they just can't get buy in.

Sutter has to be pulling his hair out when they make silly neutral zone decisions that create breakaways and two on ones because their numbers are still low despite all the stupidity.

I honestly feel that the team "feels" they won't score enough to win even if they are controlling the play, and with that take out of position chances to try and force it.
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Old 01-29-2023, 03:18 PM   #1169
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Quote:
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Yeah you can’t just take the W/L record over 19 games and ignore everything else because it suits your purpose. Reminiscent of three seasons ago when some wanted to look at the W/L record under Ward and ignore everything else.

Columbus game is an example. Inferior team, Flames dominated possession and had great metrics. Gave up too many great chances and almost blew it.

Has the D been “fine”? The way this team is built, you’re hoping for better than that.
Seems strange to discount 19 games, but then use just one game to make your point...
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Old 01-29-2023, 04:02 PM   #1170
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What bugs me is they just can't get buy in.

Sutter has to be pulling his hair out when they make silly neutral zone decisions that create breakaways and two on ones because their numbers are still low despite all the stupidity.

I honestly feel that the team "feels" they won't score enough to win even if they are controlling the play, and with that take out of position chances to try and force it.
This definitely skews my view of this team. I "think" that if they as a group would committ to wanting to be the toughest defensive team in the league that they could be that. But there does seem to be a reluctance to fully commit to that.
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Old 01-29-2023, 04:28 PM   #1171
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Yeah no.

Mackenzie Weegar is 6th in the league for xGA60 for defenseman that have played 350+ minutes.

He's around 30th in cap hit.

You're way way out to lunch there.

Huberdeau is a above average forward that will be overpaid next season if he doesn't find another level. His current production level in an off season has him in line with about a $5M salary.

At least he's a good dude, and he's not what Vancouver is dealing with.
I didn’t know advanced stats xGA60 is the measuring stick for the value of a dman

It’s cool to know Weegar is the 6th best value dman in the NHL. My eyes are failing me.
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Old 01-29-2023, 04:47 PM   #1172
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Seems strange to discount 19 games, but then use just one game to make your point...
I am not extrapolating the Columbus game over the entire season though, just mention it as an example.

I don't see any reason to project the results of the 19 games you talk about over an entire season but if there is an argument to do so, please share it.
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Old 01-29-2023, 04:57 PM   #1173
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I didn’t know advanced stats xGA60 is the measuring stick for the value of a dman

It’s cool to know Weegar is the 6th best value dman in the NHL. My eyes are failing me.
It certainly is for defensive defensemen.

A hugely low expected goals against is the main purpose they put their skates on.

He makes splashy mistakes which will skew people's view of him, but those splashy mistakes very much are included in that xGA60 number.
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Old 01-29-2023, 04:59 PM   #1174
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This definitely skews my view of this team. I "think" that if they as a group would committ to wanting to be the toughest defensive team in the league that they could be that. But there does seem to be a reluctance to fully commit to that.
It's almost impossible to keep athletes from trying to do too much. At any level.

Takes all kinds of discipline to not go for something you think you can achieve. But if you're wrong ... big breakdown, and suddenly you're chasing the game.

It's why kids teams I coached always dropped all their systems if they got down two goals. No patience.
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Old 01-29-2023, 05:56 PM   #1175
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It certainly is for defensive defensemen.

A hugely low expected goals against is the main purpose they put their skates on.

He makes splashy mistakes which will skew people's view of him, but those splashy mistakes very much are included in that xGA60 number.
If Weegar didn't make a splashy mistake every once in a while, he'd probably be #1 in that category. He's incredible at breaking up entries and turning the puck the other way. He also adds enough offense to be considered in the same breath as Slavin, who some would say is the best defender in the game today.
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Old 01-29-2023, 06:03 PM   #1176
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If Weegar didn't make a splashy mistake every once in a while, he'd probably be #1 in that category. He's incredible at breaking up entries and turning the puck the other way. He also adds enough offense to be considered in the same breath as Slavin, who some would say is the best defender in the game today.
Yes, Weegar’s good plays go unnoticed a lot because they are just inside or outside of the blue line before anything problematic develops. Hanifin is kind of the same. He’s very good at snuffing out plays along the boards, and those plays go unnoticed.
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Old 01-29-2023, 06:20 PM   #1177
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It's almost impossible to keep athletes from trying to do too much. At any level.

Takes all kinds of discipline to not go for something you think you can achieve. But if you're wrong ... big breakdown, and suddenly you're chasing the game.

It's why kids teams I coached always dropped all their systems if they got down two goals. No patience.
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Old 01-29-2023, 07:05 PM   #1178
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This definitely skews my view of this team. I "think" that if they as a group would committ to wanting to be the toughest defensive team in the league that they could be that. But there does seem to be a reluctance to fully commit to that.


If your goalie (Markstrom) lets in a softy and the team is playing catch up the players are likely taking more chances.
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Old 01-29-2023, 07:35 PM   #1179
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They're 5th in HDCA60 so that's not true either.

Now better stats may suggest someday that the Flames under a better stats regime gave up more super duper high danger chances against, but the objective comparison says they're an elite team defensively.
That doesn't match the eye test at all

Most nights it seems the opposing team has the greater quantity of high danger chances even if the Flames have the share of chances overall

A lot of 2 on 1s, 3 on 1s and breakaways generally

Not sure how they're counting it but i doubt the Flames are actually 5th best at suppressing those

It could be like the person above said, that a lot of ones that sre happening (even if limited) are going in/being converted on
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Old 01-29-2023, 08:19 PM   #1180
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That doesn't match the eye test at all

Most nights it seems the opposing team has the greater quantity of high danger chances even if the Flames have the share of chances overall

A lot of 2 on 1s, 3 on 1s and breakaways generally

Not sure how they're counting it but i doubt the Flames are actually 5th best at suppressing those

It could be like the person above said, that a lot of ones that sre happening (even if limited) are going in/being converted on
Not sure what you are watching but that isn't the case at all...it may seem that way because so many end up in the back of the net, most teams get big saves
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