Let's talk Box Office

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I think you're being way too optimistic with Little Mermaid. The rest of Disney's live action remakes have ranged from average to awful. I don't think people will be lining up for it, it will need to be amazing and live on word-of-mouth to go deep

My prediction is that Avatar 2 has legs similar to the first and it stays as the highest grossing movie for 2023

I'm assuming he wasn't including Avatar 2 in that list because it came out in 2022?

No way any of those movies beats Avatar 2. It's already at 1.4 billion with lots of room left.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by blankall

I'm assuming he wasn't including Avatar 2 in that list because it came out in 2022?

No way any of those movies beats Avatar 2. It's already at 1.4 billion with lots of room left.

Avatar is a 2022 movie when doing box office. Some people talk Calendar year gross and would split Avatars into two years with 1.4 in 2022 and whatever in 23. It will be kind of interesting where Avatars calendar year ranks. It will be top10 almost for sure.

For Mario I think detective pikachu is the floor. World wide know video game IP in a tier above Sonic, Warcraft etc. Detective pikachu did the weird live action mix and wasn’t exactly targeted at kids. So Mario will do better than that.

If the movie is good I can see it being in the Minions range of 1 billion depending on if it secures a Chinese release or not.

If I was picking an over under I’d go 850.

[Nadal Fan]

Yup I'm only including releases in 2023 . Indiana Jones could go either way for me, I could see a billion or I could see $200 mill

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Mario is such a bigger franchise than Sonic, it's going to dominate, especially if its good and has some last at the box office

[OutOfTheCube]

Little Mermaid won’t do well, unless it’s incredible. I don’t think there the same reverence or excitement for that as their other live action remakes, plus a boring trailer, plus whole controversy, plus Disney + is a thing now… yeah.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by GGG

Avatar is a 2022 movie when doing box office. Some people talk Calendar year gross and would split Avatars into two years with 1.4 in 2022 and whatever in 23. It will be kind of interesting where Avatars calendar year ranks. It will be top10 almost for sure.

For Mario I think detective pikachu is the floor. World wide know video game IP in a tier above Sonic, Warcraft etc. Detective pikachu did the weird live action mix and wasn’t exactly targeted at kids. So Mario will do better than that.

If the movie is good I can see it being in the Minions range of 1 billion depending on if it secures a Chinese release or not.

If I was picking an over under I’d go 850.

I'm strictly talking about 2023 earnings, I think Avatar 2 continues to do well for a long time this year

[Locke]

What is the fascination with Box Office take?

I'm not criticizing anyone because I do it too, just wondering in general.

I've made it very clear that my opinion has always been that just because a movie makes a lot of money doesnt mean it was any good.

The quality of a film and the amount of money it brings in are often, in my opinion, completely uncorrelated.

Obviously sometimes they are connected, if a movie is good more people will be inspired to go see it, etc. and we can pick tons of examples.

But at the end of the day why is it that people focus so much on Box Office?

[Nadal Fan]

For me alot of it has to do with franchise movies and if they are successful then we get sequels (Wonder Woman got one, Green Lantern didn't).

Also since Covid and the rise of streaming we have seen a shift away from the theatre experience. As a huge theatre goer I want every film (and all variety of films) to succeed at the box office.

Lastly, I'm just curious what audiences are flocking to as opposed to other movies. It's interesting to go back years past and see a film that bombed but now it's considered a classic.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

I agree they have all been bad but they have all made bank. Lion King made over $1.6 Billion I can see Mermaid coming close to that

Lion King had the whole photo-realistic animation thing going for it.

I dont think Mermaid has the same hook.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by Locke

What is the fascination with Box Office take?

I'm not criticizing anyone because I do it too, just wondering in general.

I've made it very clear that my opinion has always been that just because a movie makes a lot of money doesnt mean it was any good.

The quality of a film and the amount of money it brings in are often, in my opinion, completely uncorrelated.

Obviously sometimes they are connected, if a movie is good more people will be inspired to go see it, etc. and we can pick tons of examples.

But at the end of the day why is it that people focus so much on Box Office?

It's just a little fun dude, that's all

[zamler]

Avatar Water looks like it will easily pass $2 billion during its run.

[OutOfTheCube]

Yeah, as expected anyone calling it a dud after the opening weekend looking dumb now, as it's primed to rumble over $600M domestic and $2B worldwide. For a sequel 13 years on and in the current theatre environment, an enormous success.

[zamler]

That's 3 Cameron films in a row that were supposed to be the biggest box office bombs of all time.

[Nadal Fan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1609940862334533632

[blankall]

Originally Posted by zamler

Avatar Water looks like it will easily pass $2 billion during its run.

Could be at 2 billion in about 10 days.

I will probably see it a second time, which is very unusual for me. It's a been a while since I've had such an entertaining experience at the cinema though.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

I’ve been in the let’s not doubt Cameron club for a while but even I didn’t predict it would do this well.

[blankall]

1.7 billion for Avatar 2. Probably ends up beating Titanic and taking 3rd place overall, which gives the film series two of the top three movies ever.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by blankall

1.7 billion for Avatar 2. Probably ends up beating Titanic and taking 3rd place overall, which gives the film series two of the top three movies ever.

Yeah it’s pretty crazy. It’s going to end somewhere between 200-250 in China. If Covid didn’t hit China it had a shot at number 1 which is something I would have said was not possible.

[GGG]

Over 2 billion, I didn’t think it would make it after the softer than expected open. It legged out surprisingly well in China with 230 and overall just owns the international box office as the worlds rather than North Americas IP. Still over 70% international.

If it played like Avatar from here on out it would get to 820 Dom and something like 2.7 billion putting it near Endgame. Now it’s not doing that as it’s dailies are below it now.

If it’s like NWH from here in terms of % of gross NWH earned 13% of its total after its sixth weekend which would take it to $690. Avatars % drops this past weekend from MLK to now we’re higher than NWH but it’s overall grosses we’re also still in the bigger drops period.

So it’s close to getting to 700 dom and somewhere about 2.3 global. Should easily get by Titanic to finish in 3rd.

The last interesting question is will it get to $718 to become the top domestic movie of 2023. Which would be kind of funny as James Cameron has about a 50/50 track record of directing the top domestic movie of the year and despite this being the 3rd biggest all time would keep that ration intact.

[Nadal Fan]

Wasn't sure where to put this but interesting read on the future of streaming services and how it's not the money maker it used to be......

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/bu...23-1235302958/