Will Flames make the playoffs?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Same system was 11th in HD/60 and 3rd in MD/60 last year.

He changed the system?

Or did the players change?

The players changed for sure.

A 115 point player left, and a 115 point player (elsewhere) came in, but turned in to a 60 point player.

I’d like to see the data on things like slot shots off of the rush, but don’t have a sportlogiq subscription

Last year, they were near the top of the league, and it’s not good that they can have regressed so much after adding a guy who was the highest offensive producer on the best team


https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/analyzi...hances/sn-amp/

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The players changed for sure.

A 115 point player left, and a 115 point player (elsewhere) came in, but turned in to a 60 point player.

I’d like to see the data on things like slot shots off of the rush, but don’t have a sportlogiq subscription

Last year, they were near the top of the league, and it’s not good that they can have regressed so much after adding a guy who was the highest offensive producer on the best team


https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/analyzi...hances/sn-amp/

Agree for the most part.

But it's not as simple as Gaudreau out Huberdeau in. Tkachuk is clearly a straw that stirs the drink, something that I honestly didn't assume when he was here.

But to the simple case ... Gaudreau is more darty with the puck on his stick, Huberdeau good distributing the puck.

Do the Flames lack the guy that gets into the open with an assumption of getting fed? Or is it a delay in chemistry?

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

You are right.

Just 18.1% of our total CF events on the season (2282) comes from a high danger area (413). That is tied for the worst percentage in the NHL with the Columbus Blue Jackets. We do an absolutely piss poor job of getting pucks into the high danger areas of the ice considering how much this team controls the pace of play. It's a reflection of Darryl's system.

Not surprising to see that stat, how often do we see Lindholm unleash that one timer of his right from the slot this season? Not often, whereas last season, he was firing one timers from the slot with regularity.

Personally, I don’t think it’s a reflection on the coach, it’s a reflection on the players/management. If this team had players talented enough to create chances in the slot, then the team would have more high danger scoring chances.

This is where the team badly misses Gaudreau. I lost count of how many times he would draw double teams and then magicall find Monahan or Lindholm wide open in the slot. Nobody on this team currently has the ability to do this with the same regularity.

[DJones]

Kinda losing hope this team has another level. Been over half the year, maybe this is just who they are.

Moments of brilliance followed but astounding levels of stupidity.

[Scroopy Noopers]

I don’t even want to make the playoffs higher than 8th at this point. Let’s be the underdog.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Not surprising to see that stat, how often do we see Lindholm unleash that one timer of his right from the slot this season? Not often, whereas last season, he was firing one timers from the slot with regularity.

Personally, I don’t think it’s a reflection on the coach, it’s a reflection on the players/management. If this team had players talented enough to create chances in the slot, then the team would have more high danger scoring chances.

This is where the team badly misses Gaudreau. I lost count of how many times he would draw double teams and then magicall find Monahan or Lindholm wide open in the slot. Nobody on this team currently has the ability to do this with the same regularity.

I just don't agree that it's not a coaching issue.

Mackenzie Weegar led the NHL in HDCF last season.
Jonathan Huberdeau was 21st among forwards in HDCF/60 last year and ahead of Tkachuk and Gaudreau
Nazem Kadri while not as good at, was still no slouch himself.

The coach continually thumps the drum that this team has no skill and as a result has his team playing that way. He is failing miserably at integrating the off-season acquisitions and their respective skillsets into this lineup.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I just don't agree that it's not a coaching issue.

Mackenzie Weegar led the NHL in HDCF last season.
Jonathan Huberdeau was 21st among forwards in HDCF/60 last year and ahead of Tkachuk and Gaudreau
Nazem Kadri while not as good at, was still no slouch himself.

The coach continually thumps the drum that this team has no skill and as a result has his team playing that way. He is failing miserably at integrating the off-season acquisitions and their respective skillsets into this lineup.

They all came from different teams. Teams with MacKinnons, Makars and Barkovs. This team doesn't have that kind of Offensive firepower. Especially with Gadreau and Tkachuk gone. So yeah, they kind of have to play a different style to win. With the quality of goaltending this year, how do you think this team would fare if they open it up and allow more chances against? In my opinion they don't have the offensive talent available to outscore the goals against it would allow. They barely can outscore it now.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agree for the most part.

But it's not as simple as Gaudreau out Huberdeau in. Tkachuk is clearly a straw that stirs the drink, something that I honestly didn't assume when he was here.

But to the simple case ... Gaudreau is more darty with the puck on his stick, Huberdeau good distributing the puck.

Do the Flames lack the guy that gets into the open with an assumption of getting fed? Or is it a delay in chemistry?

I’m a little surprised to hear that, are used to think that Tkachuk’s analytics pointed to him being a player who stirred the drink.

I know for myself, I always thought Gaudreau and Tkachuk were easily the #1 and #2 playmakers on the team, but doing it in completely different fashion. Obviously Gaudreau was the flashy one while Tkachuk was more power forward. Below the hashmarks, he was one of the best in league and could cycle as well as anyone. His half wall defense was excellent as well in starting the transition game.

I think it’s safe to say, the team misses both of these guys. Lindholm had a knack for getting into the quiet area and unleashing his one timer in the slot, but sadly, he’s turned into the default playmaker on his line. So we don’t get to see that wicked one timer as much anymore. Everyone should re-watch his 42 goal highlight reel again, the velocity and quickness of his release is truly a thing of beauty.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

They all came from different teams. Teams with MacKinnons, Makars and Barkovs. This team doesn't have that kind of Offensive firepower. Especially with Gadreau and Tkachuk gone. So yeah, they kind of have to play a different style to win. With the quality of goaltending this year, how do you think this team would fare if they open it up and allow more chances against? In my opinion they don't have the offensive talent available to outscore the goals against it would allow. They barely can outscore it now.

They were the driving forces behind those high octane teams. They have the ability and skillset to play and succeed with that style. To say otherwise completely contradicts everything they have accomplished to date.

So the solution is to make these guys play a style of hockey that does not compliment their skillsets at all? That's pure stupidity. This organization paid these players handsomely based off of their offensive ability.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I’m a little surprised to hear that, are used to think that Tkachuk’s analytics pointed to him being a player who stirred the drink.

I know for myself, I always thought Gaudreau and Tkachuk were easily the #1 and #2 playmakers on the team, but doing it in completely different fashion. Obviously Gaudreau was the flashy one while Tkachuk was more power forward. Below the hashmarks, he was one of the best in league and could cycle as well as anyone. His half wall defense was excellent as well in starting the transition game.

I think it’s safe to say, the team misses both of these guys. Lindholm had a knack for getting into the quiet area and unleashing his one timer in the slot, but sadly, he’s turned into the default playmaker on his line. So we don’t get to see that wicked one timer as much anymore. Everyone should re-watch his 42 goal highlight reel again, the velocity and quickness of his release is truly a thing of beauty.

A lot of Lindholm’s one timers were from Tkachuk, where he plays that net front position that pops out to take a pass just wide and makes a quick pass to Lindy out front

That play is missing. Tkachuk is still doing it in Florida and it’s bizarre that they aren’t finding someone to do it here with regularity

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I just don't agree that it's not a coaching issue.

Mackenzie Weegar led the NHL in HDCF last season.
Jonathan Huberdeau was 21st among forwards in HDCF/60 last year and ahead of Tkachuk and Gaudreau
Nazem Kadri while not as good at, was still no slouch himself.

The coach continually thumps the drum that this team has no skill and as a result has his team playing that way. He is failing miserably at integrating the off-season acquisitions and their respective skillsets into this lineup.

Pretty easy to lead the league in HDCF when all you play is pond hockey. They sucked every team into playing run & gun including the Flames. I remember the game last year in Florida where the 2 teams were seemingly trading breakaways and 2 on 1’s all game. That’s not the type of hockey that’s played in the playoffs.

If anything, all the tight checking games we’re playing right now are probably preparing the team even more so for playoff style hockey. Maybe that’s the real problem in all of this. Huberdeau and Weegar’s career playoff scoring rates look awfully close to their current production this season.

Perhaps the 2 new Florida recruits are too one dimensional and are having a difficult time producing while playing playoff style hockey. FYI, I don’t know if this is true or not as I’ve never seen Huberdeau or Weegar in the playoffs, so this is more me throwing this out there as a possibility.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

They all came from different teams. Teams with MacKinnons, Makars and Barkovs. This team doesn't have that kind of Offensive firepower. Especially with Gadreau and Tkachuk gone. So yeah, they kind of have to play a different style to win. With the quality of goaltending this year, how do you think this team would fare if they open it up and allow more chances against? In my opinion they don't have the offensive talent available to outscore the goals against it would allow. They barely can outscore it now.

You do realize that this team was really good last year, of course

Out: Gaudreau 115 points, Tkachuk 104 pts in 82 games
In: Huberdeau 115 points, Kadri 87 points in 71 games = 100 point pace

Also Weegar

The coach has no excuse to trot out the ‘we don’t have the kind of talent’ position. Well, other than the fact that it is just something he says, and his brother said when he had prime Iggy

The goaltending would not be an issue in my opinion. It’s the attention to detail and egregious breakdowns that have killed then this year. Clean that up, and the goaltending wouldn’t be talked about nearly as much

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

A lot of Lindholm’s one timers were from Tkachuk, where he plays that net front position that pops out to take a pass just wide and makes a quick pass to Lindy out front

That play is missing. Tkachuk is still doing it in Florida and it’s bizarre that they aren’t finding someone to do it here with regularity

This kind of play requires a little bit of chaos in the opposition defense’s structure which is difficult to accomplish when you don’t have the right horses. The current Flames’ line up is so easy to defend that teams just deploy man to man defense and it neutralizes any player’s ability to go find a quiet area.

That’s why this team is forced to check for their chances or spam point shots and go to the net hard for rebounds, tips and screens. It’s just obvious that there’s a complete lack of game breaking speed or skill on this team. Unless the Flames decide to abandon defense and play pond hockey, then maybe Hubderdeau and Weegar would revert back to their Florida days. But then that begs the question, is the rest of the roster built for run & gun?

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Pretty easy to lead the league in HDCF when all you play is pond hockey. They sucked every team into playing run & gun including the Flames. I remember the game last year in Florida where the 2 teams were seemingly trading breakaways and 2 on 1’s all game. That’s not the type of hockey that’s played in the playoffs.

If anything, all the tight checking games we’re playing right now are probably preparing the team even more so for playoff style hockey. Maybe that’s the real problem in all of this. Huberdeau and Weegar’s career playoff scoring rates look awfully close to their current production this season.

Perhaps the 2 new Florida recruits are too one dimensional and are having a difficult time producing while playing playoff style hockey. FYI, I don’t know if this is true or not as I’ve never seen Huberdeau or Weegar in the playoffs, so this is more me throwing this out there as a possibility.

It's certainly not easy to lead the league in HDCF - especially when by every metric available you are having an incredibly positive impact on the game. It's not Darryl's way - so it's not good enough. That's how he looks at it.

And just remember - they made it just as far as we did in the playoffs against far more difficult opponents. You need your top players to perform - and they are not being afforded that opportunity here and the results speak for themselves.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You do realize that this team was really good last year, of course

Out: Gaudreau 115 points, Tkachuk 104 pts in 82 games
In: Huberdeau 115 points, Kadri 87 points in 71 games = 100 point pace

Also Weegar

The coach has no excuse to trot out the ‘we don’t have the kind of talent’ position. Well, other than the fact that it is just something he says, and his brother said when he had prime Iggy

The goaltending would not be an issue in my opinion. It’s the attention to detail and egregious breakdowns that have killed then this year. Clean that up, and the goaltending wouldn’t be talked about nearly as much

I do realize the team was good, but that was having the best line in the league last year. Ripping that line out and putting different players in isn't garnering the same results. That's not coaching, that's chemistry and fit.

For the goaltending I do agree there has been breakdowns but I also am of the opinion that Markstrom is having an off year. Last year Markstrom would have saved a lot of what's got past him this year I think.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

They were the driving forces behind those high octane teams. They have the ability and skillset to play and succeed with that style. To say otherwise completely contradicts everything they have accomplished to date.

So the solution is to make these guys play a style of hockey that does not compliment their skillsets at all? That's pure stupidity. This organization paid these players handsomely based off of their offensive ability.

I think this organization paid these guys handsomely thinking that their production and skillsets would transfer over seamlessly. That has not appeared to be the case so far. That's on the team's pro scouts for failing to see the potential folly. It wouldn't be the first time either.

Also, it wouldn't be easy to just change the style of play for 2 new players. This entire team is built to check, built to play heavy grinding playoff hockey. To ask 90% of the roster to just suddenly abandon what they know wouldn't be an easy transition. This team isn't fast, they don't get breakaways, they don't see a ton of 2 on 1 or 3 on 2's. Who knows if these guys would even excel at finishing. It might actually be the other team that relishes that opportunity and absolutely smoke the Flames.

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You do realize that this team was really good last year, of course

Out: Gaudreau 115 points, Tkachuk 104 pts in 82 games
In: Huberdeau 115 points, Kadri 87 points in 71 games = 100 point pace

Also Weegar

You forget players come here and do worse generally when they arrive here, Neal, Brouwer, Bouwmeester, and the above 3 players, amongst many others.

[taxbuster]

I'm really in the "maybe" camp...not a hard NO, and certainly not a YES.

Unless they beat bottom-feeders they're bound to become one of them. If they want to be top-tier then they need to pick up their game all across the board. I'm just not sure I see ANY signs of that anywhere on the ice. Do they have the odd "good" game? Sure -- they win in an unexciting and sloppy fashion most of the time. Don't think that's a recipe for getting into the POs.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

It's certainly not easy to lead the league in HDCF - especially when by every metric available you are having an incredibly positive impact on the game. It's not Darryl's way - so it's not good enough. That's how he looks at it.

And just remember - they made it just as far as we did in the playoffs against far more difficult opponents. You need your top players to perform - and they are not being afforded that opportunity here and the results speak for themselves.

Well, hockey is a pretty crazy game and things can shift in an instant. Gaudreau went from an absurd league leading +64, a number we haven't since the 1980's to a -16. There's no telling what happens when you go to a different team with different coaches and different players, that's why you have to exercise restraint, especially in a cap world where risk is extremely high.

Like I said, I don't know how well Huberdeau and Weegar perform in the playoffs. But judging by the statistics alone, their points per game dropped considerably (shown below) from the regular season to the playoffs. We all know that the style of game changes drastically in the playoffs. There's no more wide open run & gun hockey, it's generally tight checking, heavy and methodical. It's possible that this is what Huberdeau and Weegar will be every year going forward under Sutter, not so much their regular season stats, but their playoff stats.


Their points per game from regular season to playoffs:
Huberdeau: 1.44 ---> 0.5
Weegar: 0.55 ---> to 0.1

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well, hockey is a pretty crazy game and things can shift in an instant. Gaudreau went from an absurd league leading +64, a number we haven't since the 1980's to a -16. There's no telling what happens when you go to a different team with different coaches and different players, that's why you have to exercise restraint, especially in a cap world where risk is extremely high.

Like I said, I don't know how well Huberdeau and Weegar perform in the playoffs. But judging by the statistics alone, their points per game dropped considerably (shown below) from the regular season to the playoffs. We all know that the style of game changes drastically in the playoffs. There's no more wide open run & gun hockey, it's generally tight checking, heavy and methodical. It's possible that this is what Huberdeau and Weegar will be every year going forward under Sutter, not so much their regular season stats, but their playoff stats.


Their points per game from regular season to playoffs:
Huberdeau: 1.44 ---> 0.5
Weegar: 0.55 ---> to 0.1

Well that's because Florida's PP went to **** in the playoffs. At even strength Huberdeau outscored his opponents 8-3, and Weegar's metrics were once again very strong. I can't help but to think Florida would have absolutely steamrolled Edmonton.

Additionally Huberdeau was a point per game player in the playoffs for his career prior to last season.

Anyone who watched these two with any regularity over the past few seasons can see they are being heavily underutilized, and again not only are they struggling, but the team has just 21 wins in 46 games. Maybe it's the coaches turn to show a little bit of flexibility and adaptability.