Will Flames make the playoffs?

[ba255]

Originally Posted by TheChief

My gut says no. Too many lost points already.

I think they are! But barely

Will actually pose a tough match against the Stars… reminds me of when we played Colorado a few years back and got swept lol




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[Manhattanboy]

Changed my mind. Nope. Don’t think so.

[Flamesfan05]

They have to beat Seattle or the Oilers for a spot. Should be easy task but they suck badly so…..

[CGY12]

They make it but are out in round 1. Not enough speed upfront to do anything in the playoffs.

[Snuffleupagus]

[Vinny01]

This second cycle of Sutter has really felt like a time warp. He brought the team back to incredible highs with last seasons performance with a window that appeared to be open for a few years right to the 07-13 Flames where the team looks old, slow, and not bad enough to pick high and maybe not good enough to win.

I am still holding out hope they make it but a lot of players will need to step it up and look completely different if that is going to happen

[iamca]

Nope.

All aspects of their game point to not making the playoffs.

Goaltending, scoring, team defense, and PP…. they have not been good enough or consistent, so no I can’t see them making the playoffs.

On a related note, why do teams have a farm system? Is it to develop players to their ceiling?

I’m sincerely asking because I don’t see an opportunity for our talented young players to get a legitimate opportunity and yes I am specifically asking about this season.


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[dino7c]

Originally Posted by iamca

Nope.

All aspects of their game point to not making the playoffs.

Goaltending, scoring, puck possession, team defense, PK, and PP…. they have not been good enough or consistent, so no I can’t see them making the playoffs.

On a related note, why do teams have a farm system? Is it to develop players to their ceiling?

I’m sincerely asking because I don’t see an opportunity for our talented young players to get a legitimate opportunity and yes I am specifically asking about this season.


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Puck possession? They are one of the best in the league at that

[sonq]

Originally Posted by iamca

Nope.

All aspects of their game point to not making the playoffs.

Goaltending, scoring, puck possession, team defense, PK, and PP…. they have not been good enough or consistent, so no I can’t see them making the playoffs.

You had points that I agree with, but these two takes I can't understand

[Flamesfan05]

Unless Huberdeau and Markstrom step up and earn their contract, they are going no where even if they sneak in.

You can only grind so much especially with leaky goaltending

[Bonded]

I’m leaning towards being just out of the playoff picture unless they can string together 5+ wins in a quick fashion here.

[ComixZone]

It’s easy to maintain possession at the perimeter, which is why we’re doing well with possession numbers I’d imagine.

We saw the exact same thing happen under Gulutzan.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

It’s easy to maintain possession at the perimeter, which is why we’re doing well with possession numbers I’d imagine.

We saw the exact same thing happen under Gulutzan.

First off there isn't a real puck possession stat.

They use shot volume assuming that more shot attempts means you have the puck more (which is likely true). Says nothing about danger though and could be all from center ice (ha!)

Flames are 2nd in the NHL in CF% (the old standard), which suggests they have the puck a lot and here you would be right in my opinion, that low percentage shots in high volume boost those numbers.

So you move on to expected goal splits which factors in danger. You can't be a perimeter team with a high expected goal split.

Flames are 6th five on five.

Breaking that down they are 10th on the offensive side, and 7th on the defensive side.

So no ... they're not just holding the puck on the perimeter and hoping the game clock runs out.

[bdubbs]

I voted no because anytime I vote anything positive for the Flames, I end up disappointed. So here's hoping this helps the Flames make it.

[Strange Brew]

On some recent broadcasts, I have seen them post numbers for offensive zone possession in minutes. I assume that is an unofficial stat they track for the broadcast but I’d be interested in seeing more of it.

[442scotty]

I hope they miss badly and fire everybody in management and I mean everybody. And the ownership group needs to buy out Murray Edwards. So they need to miss the playoffs!

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bingo

First off there isn't a real puck possession stat.

They use shot volume assuming that more shot attempts means you have the puck more (which is likely true). Says nothing about danger though and could be all from center ice (ha!)

Flames are 2nd in the NHL in CF% (the old standard), which suggests they have the puck a lot and here you would be right in my opinion, that low percentage shots in high volume boost those numbers.

So you move on to expected goal splits which factors in danger. You can't be a perimeter team with a high expected goal split.

Flames are 6th five on five.

Breaking that down they are 10th on the offensive side, and 7th on the defensive side.

So no ... they're not just holding the puck on the perimeter and hoping the game clock runs out.

Ahem.

*served*

Fair enough.

There does seem to be some level of disconnect between the untrustworthy eye test and the numbers though. I don’t see a lot of good chances coming from home plate.

It could also be that the guys who are taking the shots just don’t have what it takes to bury those chances…but when I watch the Flames play, I don’t see a top-10 offensive team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Ahem.

*served*

Fair enough.

There does seem to be some level of disconnect between the untrustworthy eye test and the numbers though. I don’t see a lot of good chances coming from home plate.

It could also be that the guys who are taking the shots just don’t have what it takes to bury those chances…but when I watch the Flames play, I don’t see a top-10 offensive team.

5 on 5 the Flames are ranked the following

high danger - 20th
medium danger - 13th
low danger - 2nd

And conversion rates ...

high danger - 5th
medium danger - 25th
low danger - 20th

To me that says they're good at converting the high danger chances, but don't create enough of them.

You could theorize the they're low danger attempts are further out than the average low danger chance (there is nothing lower than low danger to capture that), but then you see the same in medium danger with a decent creation rate but a bad finish.

Two issues in my mind ...

1) The team is lacking the system or players to create high danger chances

- Last year they were top 11 in high danger and 3rd in medium danger creation so to me it's a player thing

2) If it's a player thing is it a lack of skill in creating the high danger chances? (beating players one on one, speed to break into the open, offensive instincts to find the hole or be available for the pass) Or is it lack of cohesion or chemistry?

- I think it's both

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Ahem.

*served*

Fair enough.

There does seem to be some level of disconnect between the untrustworthy eye test and the numbers though. I don’t see a lot of good chances coming from home plate.

It could also be that the guys who are taking the shots just don’t have what it takes to bury those chances…but when I watch the Flames play, I don’t see a top-10 offensive team.

You are right.

Just 18.1% of our total CF events on the season (2282) comes from a high danger area (413). That is tied for the worst percentage in the NHL with the Columbus Blue Jackets. We do an absolutely piss poor job of getting pucks into the high danger areas of the ice considering how much this team controls the pace of play. It's a reflection of Darryl's system.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

You are right.

Just 18.1% of our total CF events on the season (2282) comes from a high danger area (413). That is tied for the worst percentage in the NHL with the Columbus Blue Jackets. We do an absolutely piss poor job of getting pucks into the high danger areas of the ice considering how much this team controls the pace of play. It's a reflection of Darryl's system.

Same system was 11th in HD/60 and 3rd in MD/60 last year.

He changed the system?

Or did the players change?