Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

I mean, if the only option you want is the dealership support network, then yeah, great outcome I guess. It's not just about DIY, independent shops will also be restricted from performing repairs.

Is this specific to EVs? Not at all (John Deere's already dipped their toe in with farm equipment), but I can see the problem getting worse with the proliferation of EVs.

Anyone who has watched Louis Rossman on YouTube talk about Right to Repair understands the problem, and there is a very clear parallel between companies like Apple locking people out of getting replacement components or tying replacement components to device serial numbers, and the direction the automotive industry is going.

The cost of replacing a Model 3 battery, for example, is ~$16k USD and it must be purchased from Tesla. Search the web looking for replacement Tesla batteries and you can get plenty of used cells from wrecked Teslas, but you'll not find a brand new replacement anywhere... you have to go to Tesla for that. That hypothetical 1997 Corolla you mentioned could be virtually rebuilt using third-party components, down to the ECU itself.

Planned obsolescence and e-waste has been a growing problem for consumer electronics for a while, and as cars more closely resemble consumer electronics in their manufacturing, expect that to become an issue for the automotive industry too.

Now, I don't think the majority of people can afford to turn-over their cars the way they turn-over phones. Admittedly, I used to flip cars every 3-4 years, but I can't justify it anymore. But the cost to keep cars going if battery costs don't come WAY down and parts are not made available is going to put a lot of cars in the scrapyard well before their time.

Lots of people with new cars can't afford them as it is...predatory lending practices make it happen though.

"hey want a new car at the same payment? come on down we will even give you an extra 20k to spend on xmas presents"

You are going to owe money for the rest of your life but hey here is a shiny new depreciating asset for the same payment you have already been paying every month of your adult life!

Might be the wrong thread for this but EV and EV tech certainly seems more disposable to me

[Wormius]

^^^ What exactly do you mean by “disposable”?

[Erick Estrada]

I would disagree with the word disposable as that means that it's easily discarded. As long as the battery has been charged as per manufacturer recommendation over its lifetime, you should still have solid battery capacity 5 years into ownership. However with ICE most improvements from generation to generation bring only very modest increases in efficiency. With EV's it's likely new model cycles will bring vastly more range rendering the outgoing model more obsolete than we have been accustomed to with outgoing generations of ICE vehicles.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I would disagree with the word disposable as that means that it's easily discarded. As long as the battery has been charged as per manufacturer recommendation over its lifetime, you should still have solid battery capacity 5 years into ownership. However with ICE most improvements from generation to generation bring only very modest increases in efficiency. With EV's it's likely new model cycles will bring vastly more range rendering the outgoing model more obsolete than we have been accustomed to with outgoing generations of ICE vehicles.

I used to think this, but cell progression has been really slow. Tesla's first cells from over a decade ago, the 18650 have an energy density of 240Wh/kg. The newer 2170 are 247Wh/kg and the newest 4680 are 244Wh/kg. So at the cell level, not much has changed. At the pack level it's a bit different story, but I just haven't seen anything that would indicate drastic improvements in the short/medium term.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/28...-improvements/

[para transit fellow]

the recently announced U8 and U9 cars look interesting

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/...ypercar-u8-suv

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I would disagree with the word disposable as that means that it's easily discarded. As long as the battery has been charged as per manufacturer recommendation over its lifetime, you should still have solid battery capacity 5 years into ownership. However with ICE most improvements from generation to generation bring only very modest increases in efficiency. With EV's it's likely new model cycles will bring vastly more range rendering the outgoing model more obsolete than we have been accustomed to with outgoing generations of ICE vehicles.

This presumes that range actually matters [that much] and there won't be plenty of rational buyers who know that 150km is plenty of range for them 364 days a year, regardless of the ~350km that seems to be the bare minimum fathomable to offer North American customers.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I used to think this, but cell progression has been really slow. Tesla's first cells from over a decade ago, the 18650 have an energy density of 240Wh/kg. The newer 2170 are 247Wh/kg and the newest 4680 are 244Wh/kg. So at the cell level, not much has changed. At the pack level it's a bit different story, but I just haven't seen anything that would indicate drastic improvements in the short/medium term.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/28...-improvements/

It's also about cost though. The reason for the range improvements was not so much weight reductions but cost reductions. You can almost buy a new EV for what the old 97km range Nissan Leaf battery used to cost. Prices have come down 90%+

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

It's also about cost though. The reason for the range improvements was not so much weight reductions but cost reductions. You can almost buy a new EV for what the old 97km range Nissan Leaf battery used to cost. Prices have come down 90%+

Yes, of course that is also true, I was just replying to the idea that massive range improvements would make current EV's less valuable in the future. I do wonder how much more battery costs will come down given the growing demand for resources.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Yes, of course that is also true, I was just replying to the idea that massive range improvements would make current EV's less valuable in the future. I do wonder how much more battery costs will come down given the growing demand for resources.

I do think it's going to stall for a bit unless new chemistries come to market. There's still lots of manufacturing cost that can continue to decrease, but it'll probably be offset by raw material commodity price increases.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I used to think this, but cell progression has been really slow. Tesla's first cells from over a decade ago, the 18650 have an energy density of 240Wh/kg. The newer 2170 are 247Wh/kg and the newest 4680 are 244Wh/kg. So at the cell level, not much has changed. At the pack level it's a bit different story, but I just haven't seen anything that would indicate drastic improvements in the short/medium term.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/28...-improvements/

You are talking Tesla. Tesla's are relatively light (Model 3 are 3500-4000 lbs) relative to other EV's so most of the gains they can make is via motor/battery evolution. I'm considering other automakers. The BMW i4 for example is a really solid EV (Car & Driver 10 Best) but it weighs 4680 lbs because it's based on an ICE platform. Next generation version could make massive gains simply through weight reduction via dedicated platform and other methods of weight reduction such as more use of carbon fiber as BMW owns a few CF mass production facilities. IMO weight reduction is going to be an area where all auto manufactures are going to have to focus more with EV's as legacy automakers were able to mask weight gains through more power efficiently of their ICE powertrains but they are going to have to take vehicle weights more seriously with EV's as the weight plays a major role in range.

[photon]

Tesla has to recall a 300,000+ cars to remove the FSD because it's 'dangerous'.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/02...-is-dangerous/

[Fuzz]

Relevant tweet:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1626314402197815296

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by photon

Tesla has to recall a 300,000+ cars to remove the FSD because it's 'dangerous'.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/02...-is-dangerous/

Did people have to pay for the beta version of that? At least the recall is probably just an over-the-air fix, but wonder if they’ll need to provide refunds at all?

[photon]

Yeah good question. I'm assuming no refunds involved, people will get the FSD they paid for when it's eventually done (if ever), otherwise I would assume the news would have mentioned it.

[Fuzz]

Yes, I think it's up to $18 000 CAD now? LOL at refunds. The new hardware version is bringing back radar, basically an admission vision only is insufficient. HW4 can not be retrofitted to HW3, so anything older is going to be a dead end, and never get what was advertised (sign your Tesla up to a robotaxi fleet and your car is now a revenue generator!). Lawsuits are already happening, and I see this as a pretty big liability for them.

They are also offering buybacks of older Model S's that came with HW 1 and 2, and free supercharging. By offering a buyback, they take them off the road so owners can't sue them for false promises(so the conspiracy goes).

https://twitter.com/user/status/1617023240949616641

This is my favourite delusional tweet of a MY getting hit by another MY. Isn't this an ADAS feature any modern car has, that ultrasonic sensors and or radar would have prevented? Not the super smart Tesla though, happy to rear end another. Meanwhile the owner doesn't realize this is a failure.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Yes, I think it's up to $18 000 CAD now? LOL at refunds. The new hardware version is bringing back radar, basically an admission vision only is insufficient. HW4 can not be retrofitted to HW3, so anything older is going to be a dead end, and never get what was advertised (sign your Tesla up to a robotaxi fleet and your car is now a revenue generator!). Lawsuits are already happening, and I see this as a pretty big liability for them.

They are also offering buybacks of older Model S's that came with HW 1 and 2, and free supercharging. By offering a buyback, they take them off the road so owners can't sue them for false promises(so the conspiracy goes).

https://twitter.com/user/status/1617023240949616641

This is my favourite delusional tweet of a MY getting hit by another MY. Isn't this an ADAS feature any modern car has, that ultrasonic sensors and or radar would have prevented? Not the super smart Tesla though, happy to rear end another. Meanwhile the owner doesn't realize this is a failure.

Umm... don't most EVs, especially Teslas have one pedal driving for regenerative braking purposes? Someone rear ending someone in a Tesla at low speeds had to have pushed the accelerator, right?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

Umm... don't most EVs, especially Teslas have one pedal driving for regenerative braking purposes? Someone rear ending someone in a Tesla at low speeds had to have pushed the accelerator, right?

The following collision avoidance features are designed to increase the safety of you and your passengers:

• Forward Collision Warning - provides visual, audible, and haptic feedback warnings in situations when Model 3 detects that there is a high risk of a frontal collision (see Forward Collision Warning).
• Automatic Emergency Braking - automatically applies braking to reduce the impact of a frontal collision (see Automatic Emergency Braking).
• Obstacle-Aware Acceleration - reduces acceleration if Model 3 detects an object in its immediate driving path (see Obstacle-Aware Acceleration).

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/m...CE5BC0A85.html

One of these systems should have at minimum alerted the driver, ideally stopping the vehicle before it hit anything.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

Umm... don't most EVs, especially Teslas have one pedal driving for regenerative braking purposes? Someone rear ending someone in a Tesla at low speeds had to have pushed the accelerator, right?

It still takes time to brake though.
If you let off too late, and don't touch the brake you can still run into things, especially if the anti-collision hardware isn't working.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

It still takes time to brake though.
If you let off too late, and don't touch the brake you can still run into things, especially if the anti-collision hardware isn't working.

That still feels like multiple safety features and design features failing simultaneously to cause such a collision though... So IMO, it's either super bizarre, or perhaps a fabricated story?

[Street Pharmacist]

I know we're all familiar with exponential growth now because of COVID, but I don't think many people (including in the industry) are aware of just how fast this is coming.

Tesla took many years to build the first 1 million Teslas, 18 months to get to 2 million, 11 months to get to 3 million, and 8 months to get to 4 million. They can now produce 2 million a year. The global EV fleet from 2018 to 2021 more than tripled from 5 million to 16.5 million in 2021.

Add that to the backdrop of declining light duty vehicle sales and you can see it's more profound than we realize. In 2018, almost 85 million light duty vehicle were sold. In 2021, that had dropped to 61.7 million. in 2022, it'll likely be down again to 61.1 million. Yet, EVs have grown from around 2 million to over 10 million.

It's happening far faster than incumbents can keep up with and you're going to see a bunch of Chinese start ups take over along with Tesla