Did Sutter change the system?

[dino7c]

Bit of an asterisk for those bubble season stats...they pounded the Canucks in exhibition games after the playoffs had already started. The Canucks played like 20 games in 30 days or something stupid.

they had a great season as did much of the team last year, it was kinda the perfect storm for a lot of guys. Still with league average goaltending they would have a better record so far this season. Goaltending alone has cost them quite a few.

4? 5? might be low honestly

10 points and the Flames lead the West and this tread doesn't exist

[CGY12]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Bit of an asterisk for those bubble season stats...they pounded the Canucks in exhibition games after the playoffs had already started. The Canucks played like 20 games in 30 days or something stupid.

they had a great season as did much of the team last year, it was kinda the perfect storm for a lot of guys. Still with league average goaltending they would have a better record so far this season. Goaltending alone has cost them quite a few.

4? 5? might be low honestly

10 points and the Flames lead the West and this tread doesn't exist

Then they lose in the 1st round of the playoffs and you spew how only one team wins the cup so its ok if we are doing the same $hit year after year lol.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Name a better checking line you’ve seen from this franchise? They created an immense amount of offense from their ability to check in every zone and gave up nothing on the other side of the ice. The trio averaged +61 together which are numbers that hadn’t been seen since peak Wayne Gretzky era back in the 80s.

That top line was the biggest reason why the 21-22 team sported a +85 goal differential and cruised to a Pacific Division title whereas the current 22-23 team owns a +4 difference while barely holding down a very tenuous wild card position.

You said in the history of hockey not franchise history.

I could say there have been much better checking lines that didn't accomplish the same feat offensively but won in the playoffs.

At the end of the day they had a great regular season but the greatest checking line still didn't produce in playoffs.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You said in the history of hockey not franchise history.

I could say there have been much better checking lines that didn't accomplish the same feat offensively but won in the playoffs.

At the end of the day they had a great regular season but the greatest checking line still didn't produce in playoffs.

No, I said that "I'VE SEEN in the game of hockey," as in myself personally. Not even sure why'd you think that as no one would know in regards to the history of all time unless you've watched every game and every team since the beginning of the NHL's existence.

God, this place can be such a waste of ####ing time re-hashing the same thing with the some people over and over and over. Lets just save ourselves the time already and agree to disagree.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

The difference between watching the Flames over the last 7-8 years vs. now is there was a sense they were building toward something — now, they're clearly on the backswing, and the longer it takes for them to get into gear, the greater the chance of the bottom falling out entirely. Particularly when the new wave of talent in the system doesn't seem cut out for the current coach.

This is one of the reasons I really wish they had brought in the younger players this season. Let them play and get used to the NHL and then next season you know what you have, and what we still need. My worry is if this group comes up short we still have to inject some more players next season. It's kind of the same concern I had with the last coaching hires ... We basically wasted some valuable time and years for certain players. It's a good question now, are we moving forward, or are we on the backswing?

[Manhattanboy]

Wrong thread but some writer out there this morning suggesting the Flames and Treliving will part ways this summer.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Wrong thread but some writer out there this morning suggesting the Flames and Treliving will part ways this summer.

I’d certainly explore all my options if I were Tre, his stock will never be higher.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

https://puckprose.com/2022/12/14/dec...day-12-14/amp/

The Flames have lost ground to 6 teams, been better than 8 teams (mainly non-playoff teams) and treaded water with one team in the last month.

Since December 14th the Flames are 3 games above .500.

Since that date the following teams are better or the same

Stars - 5 games above .500
Jets - 3 games above .500
Wild - 4 games above .500
Preds - 5 games above .500
Blues - 5 games above .500
Kings - 7 games above .500
Kraken - 5 games above .500

If every month 7 teams are better than you and the team that is currently 9 games farther above .500 (Vegas) you only game one game on, it will be tough to make up much ground. Flames have gained ground on 2 playoff contending teams that they could beat (the Oilers and if you actually think it is possible for them to beat them for a playoff spot, the Avs). They have lost ground to 5 teams that should be theoretically beatable in the standings (Kings, Kraken, Blues, Preds, Wild), lost or treaded water to two teams they almost certainly cannot catch (Stars and Jets) and made ground on a team they cannot catch (Vegas). They are generally going in the wrong direction.

It seems like you used December 14th specifically to make the Flames look as bad as possible. So I'm a bit skeptical of your analysis here.

If you use December 18th as the starting point, you'll come to a different conclusion. The Flames have 17 of 22 points in the last 11 games if goaltending holds up in the last 2 games.

[OutOfTheCube]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It seems like you used December 14th specifically to make the Flames look as bad as possible. So I'm a bit skeptical of your analysis here.

If you use December 18th as the starting point, you'll come to a different conclusion. The Flames have 17 of 22 points in the last 11 games if goaltending holds up in the last 2 games.

Lol. Yeah, the teams ahead of them would also have more points if they won some more of the games they lost too.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CGY12

Then they lose in the 1st round of the playoffs and you spew how only one team wins the cup so its ok if we are doing the same $hit year after year lol.

Uh okay

Or I could cry and try to fight people after a loss

I hope they win the cup...I just realize it's a game and 24 teams won't get past the first round. The odds aren't good enough to treat it like a life and death

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

Lol. Yeah, the teams ahead of them would also have more points if they won some more of the games they lost too.

Point is, people are freaking out about the team in general and Sutter, when there's no real debate to be had that the Flames win the last 2 games if Markstrom makes the saves he's supposed to make. Letting in 3 goals on 11 shots vs the Hawks, and letting in a couple of soft ones when the team was up 3-1 against the Blues.

Are the forwards not scoring as much as they should? Absolutely, that's an issue too. But it doesn't change the fact that baseline NHL goaltending gets the Flames 2 additional points the last 2 games.

Things aren't nearly as bleak as people are making them out to be. Sutter needs to balance the workload evenly between his two goalies instead of overworking Markstrom. When the team gets stability at the goaltender position, the rest will fall into place. The team will be fine.

[Kasi]

The team will be fine (fringe playoff team who will lose round one or two) Some people here would like the team to be an actual contender who has a serious shot at the cup. I don’t see that with this core moving forward.

[SuperMatt18]

Really it's tough to gauge a team when the goaltending has been as poor as it has been.

The team has it's warts for sure - but goaltending has forever been able to make bad teams look good, and good teams look bad.

At 5v5 the team has been fine for the most part their xGF of 53.9% is 5th in the NHL, this is in line with last season.

This Season vs Last Season
XGF%: 53.9% vs 54.9%
xGF per 60: 2.8 vs 2.8
xGA per 60: 2.4 vs 2.3
S% : 7.9% vs 8.52%
SV%: .907 vs .925%

So really they were a bit better defensively last year but at 5v5 the biggest difference has been the save percentage with a substantial difference YoY, and finishing.

The finishing isn't that surprising losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk, but that goaltending dip is substantial.

The other two problems lie with special teams. The PP has been abysmal, and our penalty differential has been terrible.

We have averaged 5:55 a game short handed, up from 5:16 last year. That is a big difference over the course of a season and especially starts to hurt if you're having issues scoring. Thankfully the PK has been strong, 6.76 GA per 60 is the tenth lowest in the league, 7.15 xGA per 60 is 5th lowest, but if you spend more time on the PK than other teams it catches up to you. Save percentage shorthanded is .862 which ranks 14th, so dead average there.

And then on the other side you have the PP. Where we aren't getting enough power plays, and aren't taking advantage when we do get one.

Flames are averaging 4:48 per game on the Power play - or a full minute less than we PK per game. Reffing has been atrocious IMO, Flames don't seem to get the borderline calls I see other teams get. But really the PP hasn't taken advantage anyways - 6.96 GF/60 ranks 25th, and 7.99 xGF/60 ranks 20th. So not generating enough, and still underperforming from a shooting percentage perspective which is a bad combo.

Overall though if the team can get better goaltending, and can fix the powerplay they are still in pretty good shape. However without those two things working what should be 3-2 or 4-2 wins have turned into 3-2 losses so far this year.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Kasi

The team will be fine (fringe playoff team who will lose round one or two) Some people here would like the team to be an actual contender who has a serious shot at the cup. I don’t see that with this core moving forward.

I happen to think the team is trending in a positive direction, will make the playoffs, and has as good a chance as almost anyone to make a deep run.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Kasi

The team will be fine (fringe playoff team who will lose round one or two) Some people here would like the team to be an actual contender who has a serious shot at the cup. I don’t see that with this core moving forward.

It wasn't really a big deal to me if they weren't winning a cup when they were playing entertaining hockey. I'm really in it for the entertainment, but I would forgive them being a bit boring if they were a top contender for the cup. Being a boring team and a middle of the pack team is awful though.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really it's tough to gauge a team when the goaltending has been as poor as it has been.

The team has it's warts for sure - but goaltending has forever been able to make bad teams look good, and good teams look bad.

At 5v5 the team has been fine for the most part their xGF of 53.9% is 5th in the NHL, this is in line with last season.

This Season vs Last Season
XGF%: 53.9% vs 54.9%
xGF per 60: 2.8 vs 2.8
xGA per 60: 2.4 vs 2.3
S% : 7.9% vs 8.52%
SV%: .907 vs .925%

So really they were a bit better defensively last year but at 5v5 the biggest difference has been the save percentage with a substantial difference YoY, and finishing.

The finishing isn't that surprising losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk, but that goaltending dip is substantial.

The other two problems lie with special teams. The PP has been abysmal, and our penalty differential has been terrible.

We have averaged 5:55 a game short handed, up from 5:16 last year. That is a big difference over the course of a season and especially starts to hurt if you're having issues scoring. Thankfully the PK has been strong, 6.76 GA per 60 is the tenth lowest in the league, 7.15 xGA per 60 is 5th lowest, but if you spend more time on the PK than other teams it catches up to you. Save percentage shorthanded is .862 which ranks 14th, so dead average there.

And then on the other side you have the PP. Where we aren't getting enough power plays, and aren't taking advantage when we do get one.

Flames are averaging 4:48 per game on the Power play - or a full minute less than we PK per game. Reffing has been atrocious IMO, Flames don't seem to get the borderline calls I see other teams get. But really the PP hasn't taken advantage anyways - 6.96 GF/60 ranks 25th, and 7.99 xGF/60 ranks 20th. So not generating enough, and still underperforming from a shooting percentage perspective which is a bad combo.

Overall though if the team can get better goaltending, and can fix the powerplay they are still in pretty good shape. However without those two things working what should be 3-2 or 4-2 wins have turned into 3-2 losses so far this year.

Thanks for throwing this together. Great post.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It seems like you used December 14th specifically to make the Flames look as bad as possible. So I'm a bit skeptical of your analysis here.

If you use December 18th as the starting point, you'll come to a different conclusion. The Flames have 17 of 22 points in the last 11 games if goaltending holds up in the last 2 games.

Well Dino picked some other timelines and the Flames are mediocre in those timelines as well, picking up points on some teams and losing points to some teams. There is no timeline where they are consistently picking up points on 80 percent of the teams they are competing with. I just picked a date that was roughly a month out where there was a snapshot of the standings on that date. Happy to have others look at Dec 7th or November 27th or any random date. Fact is they were a bubble team a month ago and are the same now, because they are not gaining enough ground.

I suspect by Feb 15th we will be in the “have to win 2 out of 3” games category that Brent Sutter perfected to make the playoffs.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well Dino picked some other timelines and the Flames are mediocre in those timelines as well, picking up points on some teams and losing points to some teams. There is no timeline where they are consistently picking up points on 80 percent of the teams they are competing with. I just picked a date that was roughly a month out where there was a snapshot of the standings on that date. Happy to have others look at Dec 7th or November 27th or any random date. Fact is they were a bubble team a month ago and are the same now, because they are not gaining enough ground.

I suspect by Feb 15th we will be in the “have to win 2 out of 3” games category that Brent Sutter perfected to make the playoffs.

Since Dec 18 the Flames have a .682 points percentage, 5th best in the Western Conference. The better teams have been Seattle, LA, Nashville, Dallas.

The thing you're not taking into account is that LA and Seattle are tied for 2nd in the entire NHL over this stretch, behind only Boston. I don't take those two teams being on absolute heaters as evidence that the Flames aren't trending in a good direction.

No matter which way you cut it, .682 is a great points % and extrapolates to 112 points over 82 games. Obviously the Flames won't sustain this for another 40 games, but the hope is they can be .600 (or close to) the rest of the way.

And don't forget, Marky makes a couple more saves, we're talking about the Flames getting 17 of 22 which would put them on par with LA and Seattle.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really it's tough to gauge a team when the goaltending has been as poor as it has been.

The team has it's warts for sure - but goaltending has forever been able to make bad teams look good, and good teams look bad.

At 5v5 the team has been fine for the most part their xGF of 53.9% is 5th in the NHL, this is in line with last season.

This Season vs Last Season
XGF%: 53.9% vs 54.9%
xGF per 60: 2.8 vs 2.8
xGA per 60: 2.4 vs 2.3
S% : 7.9% vs 8.52%
SV%: .907 vs .925%

So really they were a bit better defensively last year but at 5v5 the biggest difference has been the save percentage with a substantial difference YoY, and finishing.

The finishing isn't that surprising losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk, but that goaltending dip is substantial.

The other two problems lie with special teams. The PP has been abysmal, and our penalty differential has been terrible.

We have averaged 5:55 a game short handed, up from 5:16 last year. That is a big difference over the course of a season and especially starts to hurt if you're having issues scoring. Thankfully the PK has been strong, 6.76 GA per 60 is the tenth lowest in the league, 7.15 xGA per 60 is 5th lowest, but if you spend more time on the PK than other teams it catches up to you. Save percentage shorthanded is .862 which ranks 14th, so dead average there.

And then on the other side you have the PP. Where we aren't getting enough power plays, and aren't taking advantage when we do get one.

Flames are averaging 4:48 per game on the Power play - or a full minute less than we PK per game. Reffing has been atrocious IMO, Flames don't seem to get the borderline calls I see other teams get. But really the PP hasn't taken advantage anyways - 6.96 GF/60 ranks 25th, and 7.99 xGF/60 ranks 20th. So not generating enough, and still underperforming from a shooting percentage perspective which is a bad combo.

Overall though if the team can get better goaltending, and can fix the powerplay they are still in pretty good shape. However without those two things working what should be 3-2 or 4-2 wins have turned into 3-2 losses so far this year.

Question I have is is that .5 goal missing because of the power play?

In actual numbers is our 5v5 scoring rate the same but lacking because of the PP?

Another interesting stat I think we can look at is actual zone time spent in our defensive zone compared to last season. I just feel like we spending more time chasing, might not result in a shot of any high danger but tires the team out for a clean breakout and attacking.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Since Dec 18 the Flames have a .682 points percentage, 5th best in the Western Conference. The better teams have been Seattle, LA, Nashville, Dallas.

The thing you're not taking into account is that LA and Seattle are tied for 2nd in the entire NHL over this stretch, behind only Boston. I don't take those two teams being on absolute heaters as evidence that the Flames aren't trending in a good direction.

No matter which way you cut it, .682 is a great points % and extrapolates to 112 points over 82 games. Obviously the Flames won't sustain this for another 40 games, but the hope is they can be .600 (or close to) the rest of the way.

And don't forget, Marky makes a couple more saves, we're talking about the Flames getting 17 of 22 which would put them on par with LA and Seattle.

Fair enough, so I suspect you picked the best date for the Flames. And they had 4 teams competing for a playoff spot above them in the west and 6 potentia playoff teams below them. So they were better than 60 percent of the teams they are competing with over that period of time. It would be nice if they played at a .682 pace for the rest of the year, that was the pace they played at over 82 games last year.