Ice Time Distribution - Forwards

[Bingo]

Update to the chart since it was still a discussion in the Saturday post game topic.



Top Three
- Calgary averages -1.30 (80 seconds less)

2nd Three
- Calgary averages -0.36 (20 second less)

3rd Three
- Calgary averages +0.17 (10 seconds more)

4th Three
- Calgary averaged +0.26 (15 seconds more)

It doesn't balance because the Flames don't have the average 5 on 5 minutes per game of the league. (Flames 24th in the league in 5 on 5 minutes)

Row Labels Sum of TOI/GP
Jonathan Huberdeau 13.09
Mikael Backlund 12.78
Nazem Kadri 12.69
Blake Coleman 12.68
Andrew Mangiapane 12.34
Elias Lindholm 12.29
Tyler Toffoli 12.00
Dillon Dube 11.90
Adam Ruzicka 11.09
Trevor Lewis 10.78
Milan Lucic 10.38
Brett Ritchie 9.25
Kevin Rooney 8.44

[Erick Estrada]

It's pretty evident the top three forwards aren't getting enough ice time. The Flames are the same extreme as the Oilers when it comes to their top three forwards at 180 degrees. You don't want any similarities with the Oilers.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It doesn't balance because the Flames don't have the average 5 on 5 minutes per game of the league. (Flames 24th in the league in 5 on 5 minutes)

Would this be something that could be worked out by changing to "% of team's 5v5 time" instead of using raw numbers?

[Draug]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's pretty evident the top three forwards aren't getting enough ice time. The Flames are the same extreme as the Oilers when it comes to their top three forwards at 180 degrees. You don't want any similarities with the Oilers.

It's not that crazy though, is it? 80 seconds average is 2 shifts across an entire game.

Can 2 shifts really make a huge impact on Wins and Losses? Backlund is a bit better than the average 3rd line C across the league, so it seems reasonable our "3rd line" would take a few seconds from Lindholm's line, especially given Toffoli is a bit worse than the average 1st Line RW, no?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's pretty evident the top three forwards aren't getting enough ice time. The Flames are the same extreme as the Oilers when it comes to their top three forwards at 180 degrees. You don't want any similarities with the Oilers.

Yeah the Flames are literally at the bottom for average ice top three players.

He doesn't like forward #12 as much as #10 and #11 regardless of whether #12 is Ritchie or Rooney.

A reduction in Lucic and Lewis by 90 seconds would go a long way to getting a better distribution.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by kirant

Would this be something that could be worked out by changing to "% of team's 5v5 time" instead of using raw numbers?

I mean, if the best players wouldn't get tired (and thus have their play degrade) it would be logical to play your best players all game.

I don't think special teams are materially less tiring than 5vs5, so I'd say it'd be better to use TOI in all situations instead of 5v5 TOI.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I mean, if the best players wouldn't get tired (and thus have their play degrade) it would be logical to play your best players all game.

I don't think special teams are materially less tiring than 5vs5, so I'd say it'd be better to use TOI in all situations instead of 5v5 TOI.

Fair point. I think I misread the comment, as I thought it was saying that the minutes didn't add up to 60 minutes for all 4 lines because only 5v5 minutes were being plotted.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Draug

It's not that crazy though, is it? 80 seconds average is 2 shifts across an entire game.

Can 2 shifts really make a huge impact on Wins and Losses? Backlund is a bit better than the average 3rd line C across the league, so it seems reasonable our "3rd line" would take a few seconds from Lindholm's line, especially given Toffoli is a bit worse than the average 1st Line RW, no?

Do the math over 82 games and it becomes pretty significant IMO. Darryl clearly had a level of trust with Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk that he would let them do their thing and right now doesn't have with Huberdeau, Lindholm, Toffoli. To be fair we don't really know what their thing is as they haven't gelled together yet.

[Enoch Root]

I agree. When it comes to TOI, it should be all situations. A significant percentage of goals are scored on special teams, so that is important ice time to consider.

And I would bet that the delta for top line players is even greater when special teams a re considered (Calgary's gap will be even greater)

[Enoch Root]

I also think that when and how players are being deployed matters - things like zone starts, being out after a goal, after an icing, etc.

I am willing to bet that there isn't a team that puts out their 4th line, for offensive faceoffs after an icing, more than the Flames. I am not a Sutter hater, and I am not here to bash his decisions, as I greatly respect him as a coach. But for me, that is one of the most baffling things he does.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by kirant

Fair point. I think I misread the comment, as I thought it was saying that the minutes didn't add up to 60 minutes for all 4 lines because only 5v5 minutes were being plotted.

I think you were right.

But I meant that the short on lines 1 and 2 don't equal the long on lines 3 and 4 because the total 5 on 5 per game wasn't the same.

But I think 5 on 5 is the right study, as who plays special teams is exactly that ... a specialty vs how you split up five on five time and roll your lines.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's pretty evident the top three forwards aren't getting enough ice time. The Flames are the same extreme as the Oilers when it comes to their top three forwards at 180 degrees. You don't want any similarities with the Oilers.

It's evident based solely on one piece of data, but in the absence of context and on-ice performance it's not evident at all.

To me, I think Sutter hasn't been thrilled with the performance of that line so far, and thus they get less ice time overall. I'm sure if you compared this year to last year you would see the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line closer to the norm of the black line.

Huberdeau has struggled for much of the year. Lindholm was pretty ice cold for awhile too. Toffoli has been productive, but lacks in the defensive and skating aspects enough to warrant a lot more ice time.

I wouldn't assume a fault of the coach here.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think you were right.

But I meant that the short on lines 1 and 2 don't equal the long on lines 3 and 4 because the total 5 on 5 per game wasn't the same.

But I think 5 on 5 is the right study, as who plays special teams is exactly that ... a specialty vs how you split up five on five time and roll your lines.

Yes but the issue here is player deployment.

If your top line gets 15 minutes and your 4th line gets 12, that's one thing, but if the top line is also getting 6 minutes of PP time, that is a very relevant factor.

And EDM is an example of the extreme again. Their top line minutes are only 90 seconds more than CGY's (or whatever it is), but they also get much more PP time, so the total difference in TOI is much greater than the 5on5 numbers are suggesting.

When comparing how productive players are, it is fair to look at 5on5, as it keeps the playing field level. But when you're analyzing TOI, all situations are relevant, and should be considered

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

It's evident based solely on one piece of data, but in the absence of context and on-ice performance it's not evident at all.

To me, I think Sutter hasn't been thrilled with the performance of that line so far, and thus they get less ice time overall. I'm sure if you compared this year to last year you would see the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line closer to the norm of the black line.

Huberdeau has struggled for much of the year. Lindholm was pretty ice cold for awhile too. Toffoli has been productive, but lacks in the defensive and skating aspects enough to warrant a lot more ice time.

I wouldn't assume a fault of the coach here.

Actually, the stats were similar last year (our top line was deployed less than many/most. That just made their production all the more impressive. If you look at the P/60, they were way higher than McDavid and Draisaitl.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Actually, the stats were similar last year (our top line was deployed less than many/most. That just made their production all the more impressive. If you look at the P/60, they were way higher than McDavid and Draisaitl.

Interesting. I didn't expect that.

[TheIronMaiden]

Milan Lucic 10.38
Brett Ritchie 9.25
Kevin Rooney 8.44

This seems about right for a group of 4th liners.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

This seems about right for a group of 4th liners.

If you take 2 minutes away from Lucic, and give it to Huberdeau, is the team better, worse, or the same?

If the same, then yes, you are right. If not, then the TOI matters.

[Kasi]

To me the team has to do one of two things. Give their top line more minutes (and identify what is their best line) or make their fourth line better so running them out as much as they are is more palatable.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you take 2 minutes away from Lucic, and give it to Huberdeau, is the team better, worse, or the same?

If the same, then yes, you are right. If not, then the TOI matters.

I don't disagree, a minute here or there out of place can be the difference. Hockey is a game of timing. With that in mind, there is a sweet spot for how little you can play a guy and have them engaged in the game, the season and the team. between 8-10 minutes is, in the abstract about what you need to play a 4th liner. Still you're right, you'd like to see your top guys play closer to 15-16 minutes a night. My sense is Sutter is playing the long game, managing minutes early in the year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Actually, the stats were similar last year (our top line was deployed less than many/most. That just made their production all the more impressive. If you look at the P/60, they were way higher than McDavid and Draisaitl.

I thought the same ... but not the case five on five.

The Flames were much closer to the average for their top three players. The Flames used their top three the 13th most last year, right near the average.

The Oilers were a clear cut #1 at +105 seconds.

That's crazy.

There does seem to be a "nobody emerging so I'll play all of them" mentality from Sutter this year.