[PGT] 2 big bedard points

[Burning Beard]

The system is doing its job limiting chances against and generating possession and shots while this team adjusts to all the changes. Honestly if Markstrom was playing like last year they have 5-10 more points and would be firmly in a playoff spot.

The Grade A chances against that were common at the start are mostly gone now which is a pretty positive sign. They are controlling possession and shots now - another good sign. They are starting to gel and if last night and the Panthers game are any indication the high danger chances are getting better too. Ya gotta admit Allan had a good game last night and some luck with posts.

Still 23 games into the season but I'm seeing positive signs and growth with the team but good lord is goaltending important in the NHL.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yeah, if they didn’t keep hitting that pesky Allen guy

Other than the stop on Backlund, Allen didn’t make any 10 bellers

Shots into the logo and pads are inches away from being dangerous

Lindholm was all alone in front and Allen stoned him

There were other grade A chances too

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So would you rather dominate the Corsi or have one perfect cross ice pass during a PP to a guy that can bury like Caufield?

Baseball tracks hit likelihood percentage, based on how hard a ball is hit and launch angle. HD chances tries to do this but every HD chance is different. Much less a great scoring chance that doesn't result in a shot (muffed pass or something like that).

I just think advanced stats are unable to take into account all the variables. Would I prefer to have more zone time than less? Always. But I'd also prefer to have more open players, more puck movement, more crisp passes, more playing with speed, more precise shots, more unpredictability in player positioning. And probably lots of other things I can't think of that may not correlate with shot attempts that are measured now.

I am on board following these numbers and trying to glean some insight. But we may not all agree on how much of the story they actually tell.

It has to improve for sure, but it's not as simple as you think.

I had a conversation with the guy that runs naturalstattrick last week when I saw an Edmonton game that had them down in every single count ...

Shots
Shot attempts
Scoring Chances
High Danger Chances

But up on xGF%.

He explained that every high danger chance is weighted by how it occurred and where it was on the ice. So you can have less high danger chances, less shot attempts, less shots, but more expected goals because you had had "bigger" chances inside the high danger category.

Last night the Flames ran the table on all the counts, but also on expected.

While I agree the stats can and will improve, it would be pretty hard to make the case that they didn't dominate in almost every single fashion.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Yeah agreed there. I think the simplistic stats we are getting here that tries to categories quality into a single number are way too simplistic. I would guess teams analytic departments have more advanced models they keep under wraps. I see a team who is dominating ice time but isn’t doing a lot dangerous with the ice time they’re getting. Sure they also lack finish but I just don’t think most goalies are going to let in many goals from unobstructed shooters.

No where near as simplistic as you're assuming they are.

No offence, but it seems like you are rejecting any info/data that isn't fitting your own narrative.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Look at the team's results with and without the first line on the ice. They were underwater. Stats are stats.

most teams are underwater, if you remove the 1st line's production

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DropIt

Markstrom taking 100% of the heat for a lazy, anemic team in front of him.

Id say the entire team has been as bad in front of Markstrom, as Markstrom has been in net.

lazy and anemic?

they completely dominated the play, and gave the Habs nothing - hard to do if you're coasting around, taking it easy

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you do see a team brimming with high end offensive talent that is being subdued by a coach's system? Really?

I'm going to be honest, Huberdeau looks very different so far in Calgary compared to Florida in terms of his offensive chances and creativity. Huberdeau could literally take over games and create plays out of almost nothing, and much of that was about creating chaos int he o-zone with unexpected passes and random player movement. When things are predictable, it's harder to be creative.

I haven't seen Kadri as much in Colorado, but the few games I watched he was very productive in creating chances in the offensive zone.

It's not beyond the pale to assume that Sutter's system of play suppresses some creativity. He wants that predictability because that's what keeps chances against down, but it does limit how much and what types of plays you can create offensively.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'm going to be honest, Huberdeau looks very different so far in Calgary compared to Florida in terms of his offensive chances and creativity. Huberdeau could literally take over games and create plays out of almost nothing, and much of that was about creating chaos int he o-zone with unexpected passes and random player movement. When things are predictable, it's harder to be creative.

I haven't seen Kadri as much in Colorado, but the few games I watched he was very productive in creating chances in the offensive zone.

It's not beyond the pale to assume that Sutter's system of play suppresses some creativity. He wants that predictability because that's what keeps chances against down, but it does limit how much and what types of plays you can create offensively.

I think most of the Huberdeau issue is he cares too much. He's the poster boy for an adjustment time needed.

But I agree.

I think if you have a high octane team and Sutter is your coach, he'll improve them defensively, but probably dampen them offensively.

But if you have a non elite team in terms of offensive talent, he'll probably coach you to tip the scales in your favour by not giving up as much and generating shot volume.

I'm just asking which team is the Flames?

Because I don't see a juggernaut offensive being held captive by a coach.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No where near as simplistic as you're assuming they are.

No offence, but it seems like you are rejecting any info/data that isn't fitting your own narrative.

No offence but I think you’re just blinded by those metrics. Every game the offence is anemic and you keep rolling out the high danger stats. I think this is a high corsi team that is good at holding the puck but just aren’t very good at doing anything with it. Part of that is for sure lack of finish but partly not all high danger chances are created equal. I think even Sutter a couple weeks ago said the same when he mentioned the flames weren’t getting enough quality chances even though in those games they were still doing fine in the high danger metrics.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Unreal that of the Flames 24 first games (includes game vs Capitals tomorrow), they only played their Conference 8 times (5W-3L)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

No offence but I think you’re just blinded by those metrics. Every game the offence is anemic and you keep rolling out the high danger stats. I think this is a high corsi team that is good at holding the puck but just aren’t very good at doing anything with it. Part of that is for sure lack of finish but partly not all high danger chances are created equal. I think even Sutter a couple weeks ago said the same when he mentioned the flames weren’t getting enough quality chances even though in those games they were still doing fine in the high danger metrics.

Blinded by .... facts?

Yeah that's the issue.

We should just abandon all those measures and go with Kasi's eye test on how games are going!

Sorry man, but when multiple sources go to the effort of counting instances of certain things in a hockey game and then providing the totals I think I'll be happy to go with those counts if they match what I'm seeing.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you do see a team brimming with high end offensive talent that is being subdued by a coach's system? Really?

Huberdeau and Kadri combined for over 200 points last season on very successful teams. Yes, I do think our talent is being suppressed by a system that has historically struggled to produce above league average results offensively.

Our top scorer is on pace for 60 points this season. That's not remotely good enough. It's not a 3-2 league anymore. Goalscoring is as high as it's been in the last 28 years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Huberdeau and Kadri combined for over 200 points last season on very successful teams. Yes, I do think our talent is being suppressed by a system that has historically struggled to produce above league average results offensively.

Our top scorer is on pace for 60 points this season. That's not remotely good enough. It's not a 3-2 league anymore. Goalscoring is as high as it's been in the last 28 years.

I see both of those guys struggling to do very simple things in hockey games.

Bobbled pucks, turn overs ...

Not sure the system is the cause of all the teams issues so far this season. I see a lack of chemistry a lack of personal execution, and I'm fearing a lack of play driving offensive talent.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Huberdeau and Kadri combined for over 200 points last season on very successful teams. Yes, I do think our talent is being suppressed by a system that has historically struggled to produce above league average results offensively.

Our top scorer is on pace for 60 points this season. That's not remotely good enough. It's not a 3-2 league anymore. Goalscoring is as high as it's been in the last 28 years.

How exactly do you explain the Flames having one of the leagues best lines and being one of the highest scoring teams in the league in general last year under the same system then? It's very clearly a personnel issue that is leading to the issues this season.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Our top scorer is on pace for 60 points this season. That's not remotely good enough. It's not a 3-2 league anymore. Goalscoring is as high as it's been in the last 28 years.

I think you absolutely nailed it with this. Coach Sutter has told us numerous times that he thinks it's a 3-2 league and he's VERY clearly coaching them with this assumption in mind. But the stats show that it's a 4-3 + league now, and we need more offensive firepower to keep up.

[Kasi]

Last year he was willing to let the Gaudreau line play a different style because while it was not dump and chase it did a very good job of puck control and limiting chances again. No one in the team is getting that same leeway this year. And has shown above the team was absolutely reliant on that since the other three lines were dead neutral in goal differential.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Last year he was willing to let the Gaudreau line play a different style because while it was not dump and chase it did a very good job of puck control and limiting chances again. No one in the team is getting that same leeway this year. And has shown above the team was absolutely reliant on that since the other three lines were dead neutral in goal differential.

So Sutter, a veteran coach with two rings, has changed his coaching style from last season after putting up 102 points?

And you know this how?

Don't confuse a lack of being able to beat defenders on the rush with a coach insisting they dump it in.

My guess is he's insistent on defensive zone coverage, break out patterns, and turnover regions (grey zone), but once set up the offence is up to the players in how they manage it.

And guessing that was the case with the big line last year, and all the lines this year.

[Burning Beard]

Nm

[charcoalbg]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'm going to be honest, Huberdeau looks very different so far in Calgary compared to Florida in terms of his offensive chances and creativity. Huberdeau could literally take over games and create plays out of almost nothing, and much of that was about creating chaos int he o-zone with unexpected passes and random player movement. When things are predictable, it's harder to be creative.

I haven't seen Kadri as much in Colorado, but the few games I watched he was very productive in creating chances in the offensive zone.

It's not beyond the pale to assume that Sutter's system of play suppresses some creativity. He wants that predictability because that's what keeps chances against down, but it does limit how much and what types of plays you can create offensively.

I think they should mimic Huby's linemates like in Florida using Kadri as the Sam Bennett role and maybe Dube as the Duclair role where both Kadri and Dube can attack north south with speed and tenacity which should open Huberdeau with some space for him to operate. The cycle chip game is not working for Kadri / Huby as evident. They need to attack on the rush with quick transition.

Move Mangiapane back to Backlund / Coleman since that worked last year and keep Ruzicka with Lindholm / Toffoli since that was working too.

I don't think they are incapable of generating offense from the rush quick transition and cycle game as evident last year they can do both effectively.

Also is Weegar playing more safe than last year with less offensive zone entries ? Sorry, didnt watch his game much in Florida.

[Drunk Uncle]

When you are a shot volume team, you are playing for screens, tips and rebounds because that is where your grade A chances are going to come from. The biggest thing that needs fixing on a game-by-game basis is the commitment to getting to the hard areas for said screens, tips and rebound chances. Last night was another game where there were great open looks but with limited screens, tips or rebound chances following the original shot.

And I get that it's hard... I'm certainly not signing up to screen the goalie when Stone gets the puck at the point but that to me looks like the biggest need to start generating more 5 on 5 offense.