[PGT] 2 big bedard points

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Look at the team's results with and without the first line on the ice. They were underwater. Stats are stats.

What stats then?

Eight different forwards finished the season around or above 55% xGF% last year.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Can they please trade Markstrom? Before there is a need to pay a first round pick to get rid of him?

Typical Flames - going to wait until the player has 0 to negative value before getting rid of them.

I am sure a team like the Kings can use him. Heck, send him to Edmonton.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jacob-markstrom

Flames are pretty much stuck with Markstrom until 2026. Who's gonna pick up a washed up goalie in a couple of year for $6M cap hit when he's average now and getting paid $8M for next 2 years?

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What stats then?

Eight different forwards finished the season around or above 55% xGF% last year.

In terms of actual goal differential the flames treaded water without the top line on the ice.

Sutter's track record speaks for itself in terms of his team's ability to produce offense and last year is the outlier due to the top line. In my opinion it is an outdated approach to try and win 3-2 consistently. The league is as skilled and offensive as it's ever been and when your goaltenders struggle - this is the result.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

In terms of actual goal differential the flames treaded water without the top line on the ice.

Sutter's track record speaks for itself in terms of his team's ability to produce offense and last year is the outlier due to the top line. In my opinion it is an outdated approach to try and win 3-2 consistently. The league is as skilled and offensive as it's ever been and when your goaltenders struggle - this is the result.

The top line players that were struggling before he got here

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The top line players that were struggling before he got here

Yes - and they continued to struggle under Sutter until they were put together as a trio in the latter stages of the 20-21 season.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

just make markstrom the back up indefinitely . can't do anything about the cap hit unless you're willing to pay coronato and a pick with him to arizona

we have vladar for most of jm's remaining contract who can step into the starting role .. and if he turns out to be bsd 2.0 then you've got the wolf

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Yes - and they continued to struggle under Sutter until they were put together as a trio in the latter stages of the 20-21 season.

Not true, Gaudreau had a really strong finish

almost the entire team was on for more goals for than against last season.

Monahan was the only big minus on the team

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

In terms of actual goal differential the flames treaded water without the top line on the ice.

Sutter's track record speaks for itself in terms of his team's ability to produce offense and last year is the outlier due to the top line. In my opinion it is an outdated approach to try and win 3-2 consistently. The league is as skilled and offensive as it's ever been and when your goaltenders struggle - this is the result.

So you see a team that is just brimming with impact game breaking offence that Sutter is putting the binders on?

If 8 forwards have 55%+ xGF% it's not one line. It's one line that can finish, but the top three lines were all out playing the opposition on a regular basis.

[dino7c]

The goal differential was not one line either

The D also contributed to the top lines success they weren't just along for the ride

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you see a team that is just brimming with impact game breaking offence that Sutter is putting the binders on?

If 8 forwards have 55%+ xGF% it's not one line. It's one line that can finish, but the top three lines were all out playing the opposition on a regular basis.

That's my point. Sutter led team's consistently win the analytical battle but underperform their expected results. This is not new, and is a result of the system. Just four times during his 20 NHL seasons as a head coach has his team been in the top half of NHL scoring, and two of those occurrences came during shortened 48 game seasons.

Top players seeing a dramatic decrease in point production is not new under Sutter, either.

Kopitar went from a 52 point season to a 92 point season the season after Darryl left.
Iginla went from an Art Ross trophy to three consecutive 70 point years under Darryl, and then immediately returned to a 95+ point guy the two seasons following his departure.
Selanne was a 60ish point guy under Sutter, and less than two years later had multiple 90 point years in Anaheim.
Dustin Brown's offensive results completely tanked under Sutter, only to rebound immediately after his departure.

I don't think he has ever shown the ability to get the most offensively out of his top players outside of last year - which indeed makes it an outlier and masked alot of issues this team is currently having. I think he's a fantastic coach but the game may have changed too much for what he's trying to implement today. We shall see if he can turn this season around. I certainly hope so.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The goal differential was not one line either

The D also contributed to the top lines success they weren't just along for the ride

This is true and in a really big way. I’ve noticed the D this year isn’t anywhere close to as productive. And I don’t just mean points I mean jumping up into plays, etc.

Sutter spoke about it the other day and how we need points generated from the D too.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Can they please trade Markstrom? Before there is a need to pay a first round pick to get rid of him?

Typical Flames - going to wait until the player has 0 to negative value before getting rid of them.

I am sure a team like the Kings can use him. Heck, send him to Edmonton.

This is the type of post that is by far the most cringeworthy on the board.

It's suggesting, for one thing, that the poster is smarter than anyone else, as while he knows Marky is done, no one else in the NHL has figured it out, otherwise why would they trade for him?

And secondly, it completely ignores the reality of things like caps and NTC's.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

This is true and in a really big way. I’ve noticed the D this year isn’t anywhere close to as productive. And I don’t just mean points I mean jumping up into plays, etc.

Sutter spoke about it the other day and how we need points generated from the D too.

Kylington really rushed the puck well last season

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

This is the type of post that is by far the most cringeworthy on the board.

It's suggesting, for one thing, that the poster is smarter than anyone else, as while he knows Marky is done, no one else in the NHL has figured it out, otherwise why would they trade for him?

And secondly, it completely ignores the reality of things like caps and NTC's.

Hard to be that judgemental when this is essentially whats been happening for years. The Tkachuk trade is the only time the team has received NHL players in quite a few years I think?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by memphusk

Hard to be that judgemental when this is essentially whats been happening for years. The Tkachuk trade is the only time the team has received NHL players in quite a few years I think?

So, the solution is to trade every player when they are at the top of their game, in case they begin to suck?

It's actually easy to be judgemental when a post is so bad that it makes my eyes bleed.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Can they please trade Markstrom? Before there is a need to pay a first round pick to get rid of him?

Typical Flames - going to wait until the player has 0 to negative value before getting rid of them.

I am sure a team like the Kings can use him. Heck, send him to Edmonton.

Lol imagine wanting to gift last year's Vezina runner up to the Oilers of all teams. Also, virtually all teams give their #1 goalie a long leash, and rarely if ever trade them during a bad stretch. Your takes are always overly reactionary, emotional, and negative. Very predictable.

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, the solution is to trade every player when they are at the top of their game, in case they begin to suck?

It's actually easy to be judgemental when a post is so bad that it makes my eyes bleed.

No its to do a better job at managing your assets. Players come and go and thats the reality but this team has major issues with asset management.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That's my point. Sutter led team's consistently win the analytical battle but underperform their expected results. This is not new, and is a result of the system. Just four times during his 20 NHL seasons as a head coach has his team been in the top half of NHL scoring, and two of those occurrences came during shortened 48 game seasons.

Top players seeing a dramatic decrease in point production is not new under Sutter, either.

Kopitar went from a 52 point season to a 92 point season the season after Darryl left.
Iginla went from an Art Ross trophy to three consecutive 70 point years under Darryl, and then immediately returned to a 95+ point guy the two seasons following his departure.
Selanne was a 60ish point guy under Sutter, and less than two years later had multiple 90 point years in Anaheim.
Dustin Brown's offensive results completely tanked under Sutter, only to rebound immediately after his departure.

I don't think he has ever shown the ability to get the most offensively out of his top players outside of last year - which indeed makes it an outlier and masked alot of issues this team is currently having. I think he's a fantastic coach but the game may have changed too much for what he's trying to implement today. We shall see if he can turn this season around. I certainly hope so.

So you do see a team brimming with high end offensive talent that is being subdued by a coach's system? Really?

[Strange Brew]

So would you rather dominate the Corsi or have one perfect cross ice pass during a PP to a guy that can bury like Caufield?

Baseball tracks hit likelihood percentage, based on how hard a ball is hit and launch angle. HD chances tries to do this but every HD chance is different. Much less a great scoring chance that doesn't result in a shot (muffed pass or something like that).

I just think advanced stats are unable to take into account all the variables. Would I prefer to have more zone time than less? Always. But I'd also prefer to have more open players, more puck movement, more crisp passes, more playing with speed, more precise shots, more unpredictability in player positioning. And probably lots of other things I can't think of that may not correlate with shot attempts that are measured now.

I am on board following these numbers and trying to glean some insight. But we may not all agree on how much of the story they actually tell.

[Kasi]

Yeah agreed there. I think the simplistic stats we are getting here that tries to categories quality into a single number are way too simplistic. I would guess teams analytic departments have more advanced models they keep under wraps. I see a team who is dominating ice time but isn’t doing a lot dangerous with the ice time they’re getting. Sure they also lack finish but I just don’t think most goalies are going to let in many goals from unobstructed shooters.