American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Snuffleupagus]

The red wave got stuck....

Spoiler!

behind Trumps wall!


https://bkreader.com/2022/11/07/bush...ction-deniers/

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by photon

So that makes 50 right?

Winning the runoff would just be gravy then

this makes winning the runoff so much easier though, Walker is a train wreck of a human being let alone as a candidate, voters would hold their nose and vote for him when they thought he might win them the senate, now that seat doesn't matter at all, he will be eviscerated is my guess, the GOP wont waste money on a meaningless election and Trump will avoid the stench of yet another loser and voters who might overlook his lies, history of abortion and incompetence will stay home.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

this makes winning the runoff so much easier though, Walker is a train wreck of a human being let alone as a candidate, voters would hold their nose and vote for him when they thought he might win them the senate, now that seat doesn't matter at all, he will be eviscerated is my guess, the GOP wont waste money on a meaningless election and Trump will avoid the stench of yet another loser and voters who might overlook his lies, history of abortion and incompetence will stay home.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that extra seat give the Dems the leverage they need to make both Manchin and Sinema irrelevant?

[nfotiu]

I now feel a sense of peace with politics in this country that I haven't felt in 6 years.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that extra seat give the Dems the leverage they need to make both Manchin and Sinema irrelevant?

There's definitely value to the seat, particularly when you consider that the Democrats have a lot of vulnerable Senate seats in 2024. It would provide a bit of extra security for the next six years. Hopefully they can win, but at least it's not crucial.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I now feel a sense of peace with politics in this country that I haven't felt in 6 years.

The other thing that's really good (I hope) is that with such a slim majority in the House that will hopefully result in any B.S. Biden impeachments or other things they were threatening. I think those new seats in New York, etc. would probably not go along with that.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that extra seat give the Dems the leverage they need to make both Manchin and Sinema irrelevant?

pretty much, more importantly they now know they have no power which means they will now tend to go along with things anyway, there's no glory in being the guy that votes against your team in a losing vote, you cant sell that to Democrats in your district or Republicans

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that extra seat give the Dems the leverage they need to make both Manchin and Sinema irrelevant?

Not quite. It would put the Democrats at 51 seats. Going into the midterms they had 50. Which meant that the tie-breaker was the VP.

Now they'd have a true majority, but without Manchin and Sinema they'd only have 49 (instead of 48) which isn't enough to pass.

It does mean that they only need one of the two to vote along the party line. If the Dems had 52 seats then they'd be theortically irrelevant.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

Not quite. It would put the Democrats at 51 seats. Going into the midterms they had 50. Which meant that the tie-breaker was the VP.

Now they'd have a true majority, but without Manchin and Sinema they'd only have 49 (instead of 48) which isn't enough to pass.

It does mean that they only need one of the two to vote along the party line. If the Dems had 52 seats then they'd be theortically irrelevant.

I do wonder if Sinema is less likely to go rogue now that there's another Democratic Party Senator in her state. She could be worried about getting primaried (and also see that towing the line could get her re-elected).

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

I do wonder if Sinema is less likely to go rogue now that there's another Democratic Party Senator in her state. She could be worried about getting primaried.

she's done anyway, its Manchin that the extra seat keeps in line

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

I do wonder if Sinema is less likely to go rogue now that there's another Democratic Party Senator in her state. She could be worried about getting primaried.

I never understood Sinema's motivation. Manchin was authentic and predictable in voting for his state's biggest industry and is fiscally conservative.

Sinema either just cared about her self importance and/or is bought by some lobby groups or is a mole. She's never really behaved rationally.

The two of them are not always on the same side, but seem to enjoy the power when it comes down to them.

[direwolf]

Pretty depressing that 2 lousy senators can essentially hold the entire U.S. government and a country of 300 million people hostage whenever they feel like it.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Pretty depressing that 2 lousy senators can essentially hold the entire U.S. government and a country of 300 million people hostage whenever they feel like it.

I get that. But there's a bigger picture. Biden can generally get a Supreme Court judge through with them vs 2 Republican senators. There is also room to negotiate compromises into bills with them vs 2 Republican senators.

I have a big problem with Sinema not really going with the mandate from her state and going off on her own weird, irrational agenda though.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I never understood Sinema's motivation.

She's an opportunist, plain and simple. Follow the money and that's where you'll find Sinema. Face down wallowing at the trough. She's going to face a primary challenge in Arizona, if she doesn't just walk away for some swanky consulting gig. Count on it.

[PostandIn]

There’s a scenario where McCarthy falls short on the floor vote for Speaker and Pelosi gets 218 votes and the gavel. Lol.

[photon]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I now feel a sense of peace with politics in this country that I haven't felt in 6 years.

See how you feel after a few years of investigations into Hunter Biden's laptop and Biden impeachments, 50 bills passed to kill the ACA and other virtue signaling legislation aimed at 2024's election.

Not to mention the debt ceiling.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by PostandIn

There’s a scenario where McCarthy falls short on the floor vote for Speaker and Pelosi gets 218 votes and the gavel. Lol.

Extreme long shot of happening but if it did it would be epic laughter, McCarthy would be in the crosshairs by his own party.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I never understood Sinema's motivation. Manchin was authentic and predictable in voting for his state's biggest industry and is fiscally conservative.

Sinema either just cared about her self importance and/or is bought by some lobby groups or is a mole. She's never really behaved rationally.

The two of them are not always on the same side, but seem to enjoy the power when it comes down to them.

I have friends who are very plugged into Arizona politics, and the Democratic party in particular. The word on Sinema is that she strongly thinks she has a shot at the Presidency, and that the best pathway to get there is to be another McCain-style Arizona "Maverick" who bucks the party and "is her own person."

Apparently there are a few people in her circle who either agree with this, or have decided to agree with this in order to gain personal power and they've worked to insulate her from the rest of the party apparatus in Arizona and in Washington. They're now reinforcing this idea she has that this is the way to ultimately win the nomination.

[Dion]

The knives have come out and Trump is the focus

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591190349330157568

[devo22]

such big red wave, much wow.

I'm really looking forward to some in-depth analysis of this one. I don't know where the popular vote ultimately ends up, but that should go to the Republicans by a somewhat healthy margin and that should usually result in some sort of wave ... instead it was barely a dribble. Looks like Democrats benefited from structure and gerrymandering this time.

Either way, this is nothing but a disaster for the Republicans. They probably still narrowly take the House, but those fantasies of 230+ seats evaporated really quickly. Democrats not only held the Senate, but probably even gained a seat (without Kemp on the ballot and without the Senate majority on the line, I just don't see how Walker can beat Warnock). Trumpism actively lost key races for the Republicans, flipped red seats for the Democrats or at the very least brought some unusual uncertainty to deep red seats, so him gunning for 2024 while the party probably is more than over him is going to be really interesting ... and entertaining.

Still some tight races. Hobbs prevailing over Lake and Frisch beating Boebert would be incredibly delicious icing on the cake.