Too early to panic about Markstrom

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Of the 33 goalies who have played 6 or more games (i.e starters), Markstrom ranks:

26th in high danger save percentage
25th in Goals saved above average
24th in save percentage.

This has nothing to do with what I said. I don't go into every game worried he's going to blow it.

I don't worry about these fancy stats as much as much I worry about the eye test and whether a shot should have went in or not. As a former goalie save percentage has to be one of the most overrated stats and how your team plays in front of you factors into it. If you only get 10 shots in a game but allow 2 goals on shots you had no chance on you didn't have a bad game because you had a .800 SV%. And if those 2 goals are the best chances the other team gets it doesn't mean you sucked because you didn't stop the "hIgH dAnGeR cHaNcEs".

I would say there is almost always a goal each game where we all think he really should have had it.

This is no different than accusing him of letting in a bad goal a game.

I can't remember who said it last night but they were right. Pretty much every goal that goes in someone has to think of some reason to blame him for it.

Like I said earlier, he's let in goals that weren't unstoppable but that doesn't make them bad goals. Not every goal a goalie lets in is going to be a goal he had no chance on. I'd say more goals that go in on goalies are goals they still had a chance to stop but couldn't.

And then there's this whole "He's being paid 6 million so he should be able to find a way to stop it" thing. Getting paid 6 million doesn't mean you have the superhuman ability to slow down or stop time so you can readjust yourself on a deflection or give you x-ray vision so you can see through players on a screen.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Inferno

This has nothing to do with what I said. I don't go into every game worried he's going to blow it.

I don't worry about these fancy stats as much as much I worry about the eye test and whether a shot should have went in or not. As a former goalie save percentage has to be one of the most overrated stats and how your team plays in front of you factors into it. If you only get 10 shots in a game but allow 2 goals on shots you had no chance on you didn't have a bad game because you had a .800 SV%. And if those 2 goals are the best chances the other team gets it doesn't mean you sucked because you didn't stop the "hIgH dAnGeR cHaNcEs".



This is no different than accusing him of letting in a bad goal a game.

I can't remember who said it last night but they were right. Pretty much every goal that goes in someone has to think of some reason to blame him for it.

Like I said earlier, he's let in goals that weren't unstoppable but that doesn't make them bad goals. Not every goal a goalie lets in is going to be a goal he had no chance on. I'd say more goals that go in on goalies are goals they still had a chance to stop but couldn't.

And then there's this whole "He's being paid 6 million so he should be able to find a way to stop it" thing. Getting paid 6 million doesn't mean you have the superhuman ability to slow down or stop time so you can readjust yourself on a deflection or give you x-ray vision so you can see through players on a screen.

No, but it does mean you are expected to be an above average goalie.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I have gone into the last few games expecting that we will get outgoaltended. Because we have gotten outgoaltended in maybe 8 or 9 of the 12 games. And we have won the goaltending battle, what - once?

It's easy to get "outgoalied" when you get a ton of shots but most of those shots aren't dangerous or easy for the other team to clear. The Flames have a habit of throwing a lot of junk at the net hoping something good happens or bailing out the other goalie out by finding a way to mess up a chance.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No, but it does mean you are expected to be an above average goalie.

The point still stands. People get mad when a deflection or screened shot goes in and blame him which is insane.

[Toonage]

You should be expected to steal a game or two for your team as well. I just wanted Markstrom to rob someone from a sure fire goal to start. Got that last night on the 2 on 0 but then he gave up the weak one. Baby steps? Though at this rate he'll find his form in March.

[traptor]

Markstrom is just one player and is not the only reason we are losing. But like many players on this team, he hasn't been good enough and is a part of the problem. Vladar hasn't been great either, but you do have to take into account cap when assessing a player's performance. We have been getting terrible value for Markstrom so far this season. Essentially: Has the team in general been bad? Yes. Is it all Markstroms fault? No. Has he been bad and needs to be alot better if we want to win? Definitely

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Like I said earlier, he's let in goals that weren't unstoppable but that doesn't make them bad goals. Not every goal a goalie lets in is going to be a goal he had no chance on. I'd say more goals that go in on goalies are goals they still had a chance to stop but couldn't.

But when you start letting in too many of those goals that's when it starts becoming a problem. Not every goal is soft, and nobody is saying he needs to stop every shot, but the problem is he's letting in goals at the most inopportune times.

Flames dominating play to start a game...Goal on the first shot against.
Flames need a big kill on a 4-3 PK in OT...Goal on first OT shot against on a slap shot from the point.
Flames dominating play in the third and fight back to tie it...goal on first half chance on the period on a shot that's along the ice from the circles.

None of the goals are "soft" but they are all saveable, and he's letting too many of those in at the worst times.

Here is where Markstrom ranks by different metrics. (Naturalstattrick, All Situations, 65 goalies have played at least 100 minutes)

Goals Saved Above Average: -3.17 (52nd)
Save Percentage: 0.893 (44th)
High Danger Save Percentage: 0.771 (44th)
Medium Danger Save Percentage: .902 (29th)
Low Danger Save Percentage: .963 (31st)

He's below average in every single metric. There is no defense of his play. Every team gives up high quality chances, and we have stats that show how goalies fair on different types of shots now. IMO he's playing small in his net, playing very passive, and isn't reacting to puck movement well.

And like it or not salary plays a role. He's the 7th highest paid goalie in the NHL, and he's in the bottom 10 among starters (30 goalies have played at least 400 minutes, he ranks 23rd)

The Flames have other problems, but Markstrom (and Vladar's) terrible starts to this season are a big part of it.

[dino7c]

Team out plays the other team almost every game I'm not sure you can call them bad. They aren't perfect but would have a good record even with an average save percentage.

Oilers gave up 18 high danger chances last night and the Flames gave up 6

They win 3-2 and are "cup contenders" again
Flames lose 3-2 and are "bad"

[Ashasx]

He's 32, soon to be 33.

Time has come to collect.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Team out plays the other team almost every game I'm not sure you can call them bad. They aren't perfect but would have a good record even with an average save percentage.

15 GF and 23 GA in this last 6 game losing streak.

Finishing is a big problem too as they've shot 6.73% (barf)

15 GF on 20 xGF: -5

23 GA on 17.5 xGA : -5.5

That right there is a swing of 10.5 goals over a 6 game period.

Even worse when you look at it game by game:

Flames vs Oilers: 3.59 xGF, 3.25 xGA, .885 save percentage - Flames carrying play until what I think is still an EXTREMELY soft goal by Markstrom. Even if the puck gets by him on the rim, he shouldn't' let in that soft shot beat him short side over the shoulder from that angle. If he just gets back to his net and stands up it hits him in the logo, but instead he played super small, overcommits, and goes over his shoulder.

Flames vs Kraken: 3 xGF, 1.84 xGA, .808 save percentage - Flames lose 5-4. Just brutal goaltending that game.

Flames vs Predators: 2.73 xGF, 4.12 xGA, .875 save percentage- Actual bad game they deserve to lose.

Flames vs Devils: 3.37 xGF, 3.71 xGA, .886 save percentage - sloppy one. 4-3 OT loss is probably the deserved fate.

Flames vs Islanders. 3.85 xGF, 2.78xGA, .875 save percentage - Flames dominate play for 40 minutes, no big saves when Islanders push back or in OT.

Flames vs Devils: 3.34 xGF, 1.85 xGA, .850 save percentage - Flames once again dominate play for most of the game, no big saves and can't finish.

Honestly Flames should be at worst 3-1-2 in this stretch, and instead they are 0-4-2. Mostly because of goaltending.

[Enoch Root]

The 4 highest paid players on the team (this year) are:

Kadri
Markstrom
Huberdeau
Mangiapane

and the only one that gets a passing grade so far is Kadri.

Their best players have to be their best players.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

and nobody is saying he needs to stop every shot,

The way people find something to bitch about on pretty much every goal I'd question that.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

He's 32, soon to be 33.

Time has come to collect.

To be fair there are plenty of examples of goaltenders playing well into their mid-30's. I don't think he's in decline. I think his issues are mental and maybe the goaltender coaches aren't doing a good enough job helping him prepare mentally to start games.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The way people find something to bitch about on pretty much every goal I'd question that.

Right now you are arguing against the worst complainers and the trolls - it's pointless because there will always be stupid posters and ridiculous over-reactions.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

To be fair there are plenty of examples of goaltenders playing well into their mid-30's. I don't think he's in decline. I think his issues are mental and maybe the goaltender coaches aren't doing a good enough job helping him prepare mentally to start games.

Maybe it's mental decline. Maybe it's physical decline. I don't know. Goalies definitely aren't as easy to place on the age curve, but it's also not uncommon for goaltenders to fall off at this age either.

Franchise goaltenders typically don't trend that way, but I don't think Markstrom has ever been that kind of goaltender.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well they scored 3 in both of their previous 2...they also don't allow many high danger chances despite what you may have heard

goal tending in the .800s doesn't cut it

Sorry, but just watch the games and this isn't simply a team being undone by terrible goals against from Markstrom. Are there some goals he would want back this year? Absolutely. Is he the driving force behind all of these losses? No way.

This version of the Flames rarely gets pucks into the slot, and seems to be spending way too much time in the neutral zone and on its heels because there are so few players able to gain the OZ. This is leading to turn-overs and dangerous rushes against - hence the repeated blown leads.

If this team's recipe for success is to have it's goalies hold teams to 1-2 goals every night, it's going to be a very long season given it can't seem to put the puck in the net very consistently, and the special teams is looking very mediocre.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The way people find something to bitch about on pretty much every goal I'd question that.

No rational person expects him to stop every shot.
Save percentage doesn't tell the whole story but it still needs to be in an acceptable range.


I think it is fair to expect at least a .900 sv% somewhat consistently or you can say that your goaltending has been very suspect.

Goaltending is a numbers game at the end of the day and not about any one specific goal.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by traptor

No rational person expects him to stop every shot.
Save percentage doesn't tell the whole story but it still needs to be in an acceptable range.


I think it is fair to expect at least a .900 sv% somewhat consistently or you can say that your goaltending has been very suspect.

Goaltending is a numbers game at the end of the day and not about any one specific goal.

It's true both goalies need to be better than they have. But the constant blaming on every goal gets tiring and as a fellow fan embarrassing after a while.

This losing streak isn't just the goalies not playing as well as they can. It's a mix of everything. Tanev can't come back soon enough because his presence atleast seems to settle the rest of the team down from panicking and making bad decisions that keeps the puck in their zone.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Sorry, but just watch the games and this isn't simply a team being undone by terrible goals against from Markstrom. Are there some goals he would want back this year? Absolutely. Is he the driving force behind all of these losses? No way.

This version of the Flames rarely gets pucks into the slot, and seems to be spending way too much time in the neutral zone and on its heels because there are so few players able to gain the OZ. This is leading to turn-overs and dangerous rushes against - hence the repeated blown leads.

If this team's recipe for success is to have it's goalies hold teams to 1-2 goals every night, it's going to be a very long season given it can't seem to put the puck in the net very consistently, and the special teams is looking very mediocre.

Goaltending in the .800s doesn't cut it. the opponents are making the same mistakes, more most games.

It's not the only reason but it's the biggest right now.

I am the furthest thing from a Markstrom hater on this board but have to be honest with the current play. I do think he will turn it around. Also the record of Flames opponents has been unreal. Their schedule from December in us super soft...they still have to win games but clean up the goaltending and a few other things and they will go on a run IMO.

Markstrom isn't paid 6M to only save most of the easy ones...bottom line. Half the high danger chances can't wind up in the net.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The way people find something to bitch about on pretty much every goal I'd question that.

When you have a save percentage in the .880 range you're going to get some criticism.

Originally Posted by dino7c

Goaltending in the .800s doesn't cut it. the opponents are making the same mistakes, more most games.

It's not the only reason but it's the biggest right now.

I am the furthest thing from a Markstrom hater on this board but have to be honest with the current play. I do think he will turn it around. Also the record of Flames opponents has been unreal. Their schedule from December in us super soft...they still have to win games but clean up the goaltending and a few other things and they will go on a run IMO.

Markstrom isn't paid 6M to only save most of the easy ones...bottom line. Half the high danger chances can't wind up in the net.

If Dino7c can see that it's an issue, then you know it's a real issue. (and this isn't meant to be a shot at you, you're just generally the most positive optimistic poster here)