Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

And not all markets all the time. You can get a bubble so big that it wipes out decades of returns. If the Nikkei goes up another 30% or so it'll be back to even from its all time high - which was in 1989 (over 30 years ago). And it's not like Japan is a weak economy or had political upheaval during that period (if you include those there are LOTS of markets with similar characteristics for many decades: Argentina, Spain/Italy, etc).

The statement isn’t that it will go up. It’s that the Dollar cost averaging will out perform market timing.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

The statement isn’t that it will go up. It’s that the Dollar cost averaging will out perform market timing.

The implicit assumption in DCA is that the trend is upwards over time. In North America that has been true since the beginning of stock markets. That doesn't make it an immutable law.

It's also quite difficult to statistically determine how good at market timing to make a backrest. If you made it perfect it would hugely outperform (but that's obviously unrealistic). On the other hand, market levels are at least partially psychology so technical indicators that market historians use as a proxy for market timing tend to be poor.

It's like the old "if you miss the best/worst ten days" commentary. It's nearly impossible to miss only one set because they generally take place at the same time during periods of high volatility (generally at lows).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The implicit assumption in DCA is that the trend is upwards over time. In North America that has been true since the beginning of stock markets. That doesn't make it an immutable law.

It's also quite difficult to statistically determine how good at market timing to make a backrest. If you made it perfect it would hugely outperform (but that's obviously unrealistic). On the other hand, market levels are at least partially psychology so technical indicators that market historians use as a proxy for market timing tend to be poor.

It's like the old "if you miss the best/worst ten days" commentary. It's nearly impossible to miss only one set because they generally take place at the same time during periods of high volatility (generally at lows).

The underlying assumption is that you can’t predict a lost decade rather than improving markets.

[zamler]

Liquidated all of my DOGE on Friday, felt kinda bad about it. Holy carp on a stick it's tanking today. Got lucky.

Still slightly down on Rivian.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by zamler

Still slightly down on Rivian.

My EV plays (LEV and VMC) are completely dog sh*t as are my clean tech, green energy holdings.

Should have stuck to Oil and Gas as I can't really miss with them.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

My EV plays (LEV and VMC) are completely dog sh*t as are my clean tech, green energy holdings.

I'm very certain that will change only a matter of how long.

Should have stuck to Oil and Gas as I can't really miss with them.

I've never owned conventional energy stocks not my smartest non move.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

The underlying assumption is that you can’t predict a lost decade rather than improving markets.

Not really. If the general trend in markets was flat with large up and down swings DCA averaging would produce zero returns. That's why, for example, nobody suggests putting a specific amount into roulette bets from your paycheck every month. In North American markets the trend has been upwards for generations, with wide swings that have made DCA more profitable.

[zamler]

Markets are not too pleased with Jarmoe Powell's little talk.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by zamler

Markets are not too pleased with Jarmoe Powell's little talk.

Haha, thanked particularly for "Jarmoe"!

[JohnnyB]

The real Jarmoe would spin things to sound optimistic. He would never close a press conference by saying the chances of a soft landing have narrowed.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by zamler

Markets are not too pleased with Jarmoe Powell's little talk.

Crazy 4% intra day swing

[MJK]

For the past 2 months all I've been doing is writing covered calls and raising cash. Working out well so far and I think in this market its a good time to do it. Been called only once.

[Strange Brew]

I'm feeling not too bad about my Boeing recommendation last week. Up nearly 10% in a bad week. But this isn't one I'd flip, so that doesn't mean much.

[Strange Brew]

Chinese markets popping. Should be a strong open Friday.

[Delthefunky]

makes sense why oil prices are up 4% pre market.

[Izzle]

Both Canada and USA with strong jobs numbers. If this continues BoC will keep interest rates elevated for long if not raise it.

[DoubleK]

RNW missed and is yeilding almost 7%.

If you need a renewable company in your portfolio I'd give them a look. There is some good news baked in related to the repairs of the Kent Hills wind facility. I would expect them to recoup the costs through litigation.

[zamler]

If you hold
AMZN
AAPL
NFLX
GOOG
TSLA
NIO
XPEV
XPeng
LCID
RIVN
F
DIS
RBLX
COIN
BILI

Don't look at your portfolio.

Amazon and Tesla hit 52 week lows. Whoa AFRM is down over 20%.

[Fuzz]

TSLA down ~40% since mid Sept. Guess the market doesn't really like the Twitter purchase.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

TSLA down ~40% since mid Sept. Guess the market doesn't really like the Twitter purchase.

Tesla killer Lucid is down 20%. Today.