Russia invades Ukraine

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by greyshep

"Guarantee the safety of the ships we are using to launch missiles at your cities please."

Come on, how is this real life?

Putin's idea of negotiations is "You will happily accept us punching you in the face with no conditions". The guy is clearly delusional.

[Kasi]

It shows us that when Erdogan speaks up Putin backs down. He does not want Turkey more on their bad side then they are otherwise Armenia and other nations in the Caucasus are going to go up in smoke.

[foshizzle11]

Originally Posted by greyshep

"Guarantee the safety of the ships we are using to launch missiles at your cities please."

Come on, how is this real life?

100%, bomb the &@#! out of them and then move on to shipping the grain out. This war needs to end.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Even in a best case scenario, Ukraine was likely to be a 1979 Afghanistan situation with the world never trusting Russia.

I honestly can't think of one despot in the past 100 years that outright lost a total war they started and lived on to live the day to continue to rule outside of arguably Saddam Hussein. I'm sure there are some, but Russia's situation is more complicated.

But this isn't total war. It's not even taking place on Russian soil. If Russia ends up negotiating an end to the war with no gains, what makes it fundamentally different than any number of conflicts (Korean War, most wars in the Middle East, USSR in Afghanistan, etc.) where the aggressor's leader remained in power after the war despite heavy losses?

From our perspective, it's a disaster that Russia will fail to ever really recover from, but do Russians see it that way? At least strongly enough to overthrow their government? I seriously doubt it, at least at this point.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

But this isn't total war. It's not even taking place on Russian soil. If Russia ends up negotiating an end to the war with no gains, what makes it fundamentally different than any number of conflicts (Korean War, most wars in the Middle East, USSR in Afghanistan, etc.) where the aggressor's leader remained in power after the war despite heavy losses?

From our perspective, it's a disaster that Russia will fail to ever really recover from, but do Russians see it that way? At least strongly enough to overthrow their government? I seriously doubt it, at least at this point.

Total war doesn't mean that your country gets invaded necessarily. Canada was fully mobilized and most definitely in total war in the world wars even if Canada itself was never in danger for example. The term total war has been used on numerous occasions to describe this war including by Zelensky and the Kremlin.

I can't say how this ends, because I honestly don't know and no one knows. Will Putin be overthrown? Maybe, but it would be an internal coup (Wagner most likely) not by the population. There are definite cracks right now but I'm not exactly expecting a revolution. This would be a best case scenario but one of the most unlikely ones, I agree with you.

If that doesn't happen is what is scarier. If Putin isn't going anywhere, he's not giving up Ukraine even if his military is no longer able to operate, and he has nukes, what's his next step? Right now he's getting resupplied by Iran with drones and ballistic missiles and it is believed that Russia will help Iran in their nuclear program and bypass sanctions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63328274

The Iran's direct military support for Russia throws a new wrench into the war. What is done with Iran? We are just over 8 months into a war that was supposed to be 3 days long. To put it in perspective at this time period in WWII France was still fully standing and had just started the battle for Norway. We have no idea how this ends right now.

All we know at this point is that Russia will eventually lose, the question is how will that look. Does Russia sue for peace and is allowed to keep Crimea for example and would Ukraine accept (unlikely)? Does Russia run an attrition war for years where eventually Putin gets overthrown. Is NATO forced to join the war because Russia crosses the line?

All of the scenarios are speculation. It's not ending anytime soon is one thing we do know, but we do have a new set of scenarios today then we did at the onset of the war that would have been difficult to predict.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Care to explain?

Did you listen to his 'how?' and 'why?' segments? His conclusions may or may not be correct, I don't really have an opinion on that, but his actual arguments are full of holes and jumping to conclusions.

[peter12]

It's pretty clear that what exists between Russia and Ukraine is coming close to total war. Both sides have almost entirely mobilized their societies towards defeating the other.

[opendoor]

From Ukraine's perspective, it's basically total war. For Russia, not really. The mobilization was a step towards that, but they still haven't shifted their economy into a wartime one which really is a prerequisite for total war. When that happens, consumer good production is largely commandeered for military purposes and wartime considerations take precedence over civilian needs (so things like rationing happen). That simply isn't happening at this point in Russia, as nothing going on there resembles the wartime economy that is associated with being in a state of total war (at least by its normal definition).

Sure, the Kremlin might use that term to try to drum up domestic support for their fight against Satanic NATO. But ultimately we're talking about what actually happens in Russia and the conditions of the population. If Russians see their standard of living drop catastrophically as a result of the war (which can happen in a wartime economy) then the chance of Putin getting deposed after the war ends are much higher than if they only see a somewhat mild drop (which might happen if things continue as they have so far).

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by peter12

It's pretty clear that what exists between Russia and Ukraine is coming close to total war. Both sides have almost entirely mobilized their societies towards defeating the other.

Russian military spending in 2022 is only estimated to be about 50% higher than in prior years and their current budget for 2023 is about the same. By comparison, the US's military spending went up by 30x between 1940 and 1943 when they were in a total war. And Canada's annual military expenditures alone by the middle of WWII were higher than the entire federal government's expenditures in 1939.

Or put in other terms, Russia has drafted about 1% of the eligible pool so far. In WWII, about 20% of American draft-age men served in the military and in Canada it was even higher.

Now that's not to say that Russia is necessarily holding back or anything; they're likely incapable of waging total war. But there is a vast difference between the amount of resources they're putting into this war compared to what is traditionally seen as a state of total war. And the effect of the war on Russian society will reflect that.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

From Ukraine's perspective, it's basically total war. For Russia, not really. The mobilization was a step towards that, but they still haven't shifted their economy into a wartime one which really is a prerequisite for total war. When that happens, consumer good production is largely commandeered for military purposes and wartime considerations take precedence over civilian needs (so things like rationing happen). That simply isn't happening at this point in Russia, as nothing going on there resembles the wartime economy that is associated with being in a state of total war (at least by its normal definition).

They have. A week ago.

https://tvpworld.com/64159775/russia...-economy-daily

As pointed out by the daily, quoting its source in the Finance Ministry, Russia is switching to a “military-type economy,” meaning that “everything related to development – infrastructure, education, health – is receding into the background.”

This also follows prior wartime measures controls already implemented earlier this summer which requires business to supply goods to the military

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ls-2022-07-06/

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Russia's parliament on Wednesday rushed through two bills imposing strict controls on the economy, requiring businesses to supply goods to the armed forces and obliging employees at some firms to work overtime.

[nik-]

Why is this minutiae even being discussed. It's semantics at this point.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Russian military spending in 2022 is only estimated to be about 50% higher than in prior years and their current budget for 2023 is about the same. By comparison, the US's military spending went up by 30x between 1940 and 1943 when they were in a total war. And Canada's annual military expenditures alone by the middle of WWII were higher than the entire federal government's expenditures in 1939.

Or put in other terms, Russia has drafted about 1% of the eligible pool so far. In WWII, about 20% of American draft-age men served in the military and in Canada it was even higher.

Now that's not to say that Russia is necessarily holding back or anything; they're likely incapable of waging total war. But there is a vast difference between the amount of resources they're putting into this war compared to what is traditionally seen as a state of total war. And the effect of the war on Russian society will reflect that.

The problem Russia is in is there's no win for them or way out, having persuaded their people they are a world military superpower beating Ukraine with everything they have got looks like Conner McGregor needing 15 rounds to beat a 13 year old, losing is worse, at this point Putin has no out, winning doesnt fix it, losing is worse and everything leaves him weak and at the economic mercy of China

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

They have. A week ago.

https://tvpworld.com/64159775/russia...-economy-daily

This also follows prior wartime measures controls already implemented earlier this summer which requires business to supply goods to the military

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ls-2022-07-06/

But we're talking about completely different scales. If you're going to compare to other autocrats and wars over the last 100 years, then you need to consider the vast differences. What Russia is doing now in terms of investing resources is drop in the bucket compared to what countless countries have spent during wartime. And it's even less than what many larger powers invested during peacetime in the Cold War era. Countries in the Middle East were devoting 25-30% of their GDP to their armed forces in the '70s; Russia right now is at about 5%.

And rather than creating the conditions for the populace to turn on leadership (through rationing or low pay), the current situation is actually leading to Russian workers involved in wartime production seeing their pay go up, as military production is picking up slack that was created as industrial production has dropped.

Long term, Russia will struggle. But in the near term, I don't think it's nearly as dire as we had all hoped it would be. The Russian economy will lag a little, but not nearly as much was initially predicted (the IMF is estimating a ~3% drop in 2022). I just don't see the conditions for any kind of popular revolt in Russia or where Putin's leadership will be seriously threatened in the near-to-mid term, even if Russia ends the war with zero gains.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by nik-

Why is this minutiae even being discussed. It's semantics at this point.

Because internal Russian response is probably the primary factor that will impact how the war plays out and whether there will be serious escalations. If Putin believes that negotiated peace with few gains equals him getting deposed and executed, then he'll probably escalate regardless of the repercussions.

On the other hand, if he's relatively secure in his leadership, then escalating significantly will tend to hurt him more than help. But of course, him being secure in his position will also tend to have the effect of drawing the war out at its current level for a longer period of time.

[peter12]

So let's just say that this is the closest to total war any two countries have come since the Second World War and satisfy that.

[CroFlames]

Do people forget what happened in Korea and Vietnam?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Do people forget what happened in Korea and Vietnam?

Wicked Movies?

[jammies]

Originally Posted by peter12

So let's just say that this is the closest to total war any two countries have come since the Second World War and satisfy that.

The Iran/Iraq war in the 80s was total, and lasted 8 years.

[Firebot]

On recent news Putin blinked again and is now back in on the grain deal...for now. Provoking a NATO response even accidently isn't something he is willing to test or gamble on at this point in time, there is a small level of self-preservation sanity still left. Turkey stood up and he had to sit back down as the grain shipments were going to go on without Russia involvement. His bluff and blackmail backfired pretty significantly here.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63483133

Other notable news related to the war, Saudi Arabia is claiming that Iran is planning an attack. Internal turmoil in Iran has not made much news in recent weeks (difficult when media has been censored there) but the protests are just as large as they have been on day 1 after the murder of Mahsa Amini. Iran's regime is in a precarious position here and war tends to be one of the best ways to distract from internal problems. There has been over reported 450 deaths and 25K arrested so far. With Iran supplying drones and ballistic missiles to Russia and being an active supporter of the Ukraine invasion, wonder what type of intervention will we see here as events continue to escalate.

The US has also confirmed today that North Korea is supplying Russia with significant artillery shells.

There hasn't been much direct news about new progress outside of Bakmut's successful defense but reported Russian daily are the highest they have ever been outside of the very first day of the war, with reported Russian losses ranging from 600 to as high as 950 in recent days. They will be hitting 1000+ KIA per day soon...a total meat grinder that is only accelerating.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1587836083345170432

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Do people forget what happened in Korea and Vietnam?

Ken Burns in shambles