Russia invades Ukraine

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I thought Nordstream 2 would have potentially allowed Russia to bypass Poland and Ukraine in delivery of gas to Europe?

Nordstream 1 already did that.
Nordstream 2 was just a parallel line that increased capacity of the existing lines/route.

[Firebot]

And the stupid "it was Biden" conspiracy is straight out of the Russia playbook. Russian bots flooded social media with it, bought trolls like Carlson are spreading the conspiracy, and it's fast becoming a potential reason, while you have a literal madman mobilizing his whole country because he simply cannot accept a defeat of any kind.

Russia would have yelled instantly at the US versus asking for Europe to remove sanctions so it can rebuild the pipelines. Russia would rather blame accidents and incompetence versus ever publicly conceding Ukraine can destroy planes in Crimea or sink the Moskva. Their reaction should make it very obvious who bombed the pipelines.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Azure

It is not clear at all that it was Russia.

My money is still on the US.

They benefit from high natural gas prices & restricted supply.
Russia has no more ability to keep the Europeans from freezing this winter which gives the US more leverage over both Russia & Germany.
Keeps the strength of USD high.

I know the pipeline was turned off, but I think it was pretty clear Russia was going to use it to get sanctions removed. They even said as much. Now it wouldn't even matter if the sanctions were removed as they can't turn on the gas again.

The US is really benefiting from all of this.
The EURO and English Pound has dropped a lot compared to the USD, which I'd imagine has a lot to do with energy independence.

I don't buy it. Lots of people stand to gain, but at what risk? The US will risks losing the support of a lot of allies and destroying it's credibility if found out. That's a crap ton of risk to help a few domestic gas producer's balance sheets

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I thought Nordstream 2 would have potentially allowed Russia to bypass Poland and Ukraine in delivery of gas to Europe?

Yes, it would. It would give Russia leverage with Germany while taking away power from Poland and Ukraine. The pipeline is more valuable to them intact than it is destroyed. If they wanted to show they could hit Western infrastructure in NATO territory, there were probably other ways to do it without cutting off their nose to spite their face. The only way it makes sense for them to do this is if they assume Germany is going to rush ahead with repairs anyway, which is plausible. It would certainly call their bluff for weening off Russian gas.

Honestly, there are compelling reasons for why either side would do this, and good reasons for why they wouldn't. I don't disagree with the points in the Twitter thread, but I don't think any of them point to anything other than no one really knowing. She is right though that whatever happened, we will likely not know. If it is an issue of alliance management, it will get buried for the sake of not looking completely united and organized. The truth is, you can look at almost any major war in history where there are alliances where members have different interests, and things like this can happen.

Whatever the reasons, I think the act is overall good for Ukraine, so if it was Russia, then thanks I guess. Your craziness paid off this time. Germany has no safety net now and has to go all in on seeing Russia defeated.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Firebot

And the stupid "it was Biden" conspiracy is straight out of the Russia playbook. Russian bots flooded social media with it, bought trolls like Carlson are spreading the conspiracy, and it's fast becoming a potential reason, while you have a literal madman mobilizing his whole country because he simply cannot accept a defeat of any kind.

Russia would have yelled instantly at the US versus asking for Europe to remove sanctions so it can rebuild the pipelines. Russia would rather blame accidents and incompetence versus ever publicly conceding Ukraine can destroy planes in Crimea or sink the Moskva. Their reaction should make it very obvious who bombed the pipelines.

If I was Biden I would do a Putin/Trump and claim 'hell yes I could have blown those sorry assed ruski pipes up, maybe I did, maybe I didn't!! you see what I will blow up if they push us any further, 'Murica hell yes!!' get some of that Qanon vote

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I don't buy it. Lots of people stand to gain, but at what risk? The US will risks losing the support of a lot of allies and destroying it's credibility if found out. That's a crap ton of risk to help a few domestic gas producer's balance sheets

I think the risk is more than worth it. For the last decade everyone has been talking about the demise of the US. Now a few months into this conflict it has become clear again that there is only one big dog in the room.

The biggest benefit is with the strength of the USD.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

US sending another 18 Himars to Ukraine, on top of the 12 that were already game changers, hopefully cancels out the 300k mobiliks.

Not sending, they're ordering them; so they're not getting there anytime soon. The US doesn't seem to want to draw down its own stockpile just yet:

The Pentagon said on Wednesday it would send an additional $1.1 billion in long-term military aid to Ukraine, including 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers, or HIMARS, one of the most vaunted weapons of the seven-month war with Russia.

But unlike the 16 HIMARS the military rushed to Ukraine from its existing stockpiles over the summer, these new weapons will be ordered from the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, and will take “a few years” to deliver, a senior Defense Department official told reporters.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09...raine-war-news

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Not sending, they're ordering them; so they're not getting there anytime soon. The US doesn't seem to want to draw down its own stockpile just yet:


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09...raine-war-news

They can't send them all because of the threats coming from Canada!

A few years??

[Street Pharmacist]

The strength of the USD was climbing already since the invasion mostly due to the euro decline, no? Is the marginal increase in the dollar from destroying an unused pipeline that can be fixed worth destroying your alliances? I don't think so

[Locke]

Originally Posted by chemgear

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574938449853190144

Pretty standard. I think Stalin was 'Elected' too.

The ballot probably looked something like:

A) Josef Stalin
B) Gulag
C) All of the Above

Originally Posted by chemgear

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575113910658678786

Oh yes, that seems believable.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Locke

Pretty standard. I think Stalin was 'Elected' too.

The ballot probably looked something like:

A) Josef Stalin
B) Gulag
C) All of the Above



Oh yes, that seems believable.

So proportional representation then?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The strength of the USD was climbing already since the invasion mostly due to the euro decline, no? Is the marginal increase in the dollar from destroying an unused pipeline that can be fixed worth destroying your alliances? I don't think so

Russia invaded Ukraine Feb 24, and the Euro has been dropping fast since.

You have valid points, but I think people forget how the US will act to protect their interests.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Not sending, they're ordering them; so they're not getting there anytime soon. The US doesn't seem to want to draw down its own stockpile just yet:


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09...raine-war-news

Surprised by this, there were photos circulating of 18 latched to shipping decks in the hull of a barge.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575180212563628035

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575075356062646273

[Locke]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575075356062646273

That was good.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy14

Canada should have been in a position to step in and stand with our allies on the energy front.

20+years of Canadian energy policy/economic suicide has landed us in the position where we wouldn't be in a position to help for years and years to come, even if we jumped on it right now.

NRCAN 2006 Reference Case
Projected 2020 oil production 3.7 mbpd
Actual 2020 oil production 4.5 mbpd

Projected 2020 natural gas production 5.3 TCF
Actual 2020 natural gas production 5.7 TCF

If the European are going to rely on LNG then expect them to use far less gas because LNG is far more expensive than pipeline gas.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Surprised by this, there were photos circulating of 18 latched to shipping decks in the hull of a barge.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1575180212563628035

Reverse image search shows that as a delivery to Romania from 2021:

https://defbrief.com/2021/02/26/roma...s-from-the-us/

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

They can't send them all because of the threats coming from Canada!

A few years??

The US has been pretty clear that they're not going to risk their own stockpiles in any way. They're still going to maintain enough arms to cover for the worst case scenario (a multi-front war they're directly and heavily involved in).

They'll provide a basically endless supply of things that can be produced quickly (small arms, ammo, etc.), but bigger and higher tech equipment has its limits in terms of what they'll give up. But then, it's not like Russia has a great supply of those things either.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Firebot

And the stupid "it was Biden" conspiracy is straight out of the Russia playbook. Russian bots flooded social media with it, bought trolls like Carlson are spreading the conspiracy, and it's fast becoming a potential reason, while you have a literal madman mobilizing his whole country because he simply cannot accept a defeat of any kind.

Russia would have yelled instantly at the US versus asking for Europe to remove sanctions so it can rebuild the pipelines. Russia would rather blame accidents and incompetence versus ever publicly conceding Ukraine can destroy planes in Crimea or sink the Moskva. Their reaction should make it very obvious who bombed the pipelines.

Of all the false flags that Russia has done (or at least attempted) that were so incredibly idiotic and apparent who was at fault, I'm not sure if I find it hilarious or sad that this seems to be the one that people are falling for.

Literally one country in this conflict is going around and shooting at people or things they aren't supposed to, has blackmailed the EU with an energy war, and escalates things on a daily basis. Look at Petrov'/Russia's goofy reaction in all this. Plain as day who is responsible. Yet the US or Poland is to blame?

F'ing LOL

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Itse

I also want to say that just because I don't have empathy for the Russian soldiers doesn't mean I think it's somehow wrong to empathize with them.

I also don't think its ever acceptable to hurt another person just because you don't like them.

There is a difference between "no empathy" and "wanting bad things to happen to someone".

Thanks for clarifying that. I don’t disagree with you that the resistance needs to come from the people, especially those who are at risk of getting drafted, I just think it’s a far more complicated position for people to be put in than just refusing, especially in a country where people who oppose the government are routinely killed. Vulnerable people with families are literally being put on the spot to choose between jail and going to the frontlines(where they can at least surrender), and sadly going to the frontlines is probably the only option where they get to see their families again, so while I don’t agree with their decision I can understand it to some degree. With that being said, I don’t have an ounce of empathy for those who are happy to join the fight.

To put it into context, I’d have a hard time telling the family of a drafted Vietnam vet who was KIA that they got what they deserved and I see a lot of similarities with what the Russian people are being faced with against their will. Despite Putin’s absolute bull#### these are still human beings who didn’t want this and are basically being put in this position because of where they were born. If we start picking which human life is more valuable than others we start going down the same path as the idiots who support Putin’s war. While the Ukrainian people absolutely don’t deserve what is happening, neither do poor Russians who don’t have the means to escape the situation.

Maybe I’m just an eternal optimist but most times when a government is overthrown it generally starts with the military no longer following the orders of an incompetent moron of a leader, so I’m hoping that the more people they have who won’t follow orders on the frontlines the more likely it will lead to a revolt and an end to Putin’s reign of terror. As painful as getting to that point may be.